TooMuchSports

My Wonderful Gambling Odyssey Through The Bowl Season, Part 1

2011-01-20T15:57:00.000-05:00

I can say without reservation that this was a bowl season unlike any other for me. You see, instead of trying to set couch potato records or attempting the Herculean feat of watching every bowl game, I was doing something different.

I was gambling. And I loved it.

My grandfather lives just outside of Las Vegas so, for the first time since he moved out there about 12 years ago, my mother’s family decided to spend Christmas in Las Vegas. It had been long discussed within the family but this ended up being the year to do it. Thanks to the economy and the usual down period – who wants to spend Christmas in Vegas? – we were able to score spectacular deals. I stayed at the Monte Carlo for seven days, six nights and my room cost a grand total of $114.

You know what that means? I had gambling money.

Not everything about Vegas for Christmas is great. Namely, it’s that painful sinking sensation that you’re going to hell for playing blackjack on the birthday of Jesus. Or it could’ve been the Christmas carols, once songs that reminded me of my childhood, now becoming the soundtrack of my gambling exploits.

It didn’t matter. I was gambling on football.

If you’ve read this site or followed me on Twitter, you know that I’m obsessed with college football and bowls. I can’t explain why but since I was about 10 years old, everything about bowls fascinated me. The random matchups. The crazy locations. The wonderfully awful tourist commercials for places like Boise and Shreveport. The insane amount of games squished into a small window.

For roughly two weeks, my college football experience reached an unusual and exciting peak. I’ve always been obsessed. But now, I actually had a reason to be obsessed. And thus begins my first journey through the bowl season with money riding on everything.

Please note: I may be off by a point or two on the lines and over/unders. Sue me. I do know what I needed to cover and, really, isn’t that all that matters?

Friday, Dec. 24

I arrived in Las Vegas in the wee hours of Christmas Eve morning. The city was in the strangest state I’ve ever seen it in. For one, the place was practically deserted. I’m used to the Strip always being packed with people, especially at midnight on a Thursday. The people would return but not on the Christmas holiday. I guess some people don’t like going to hell.

The Strip was also covered in water as it had rained for three straight days. Without storm drains or run-off, the water just sat there. The cab driver from the airport told us that he had never seen it rain so much in his ten years of living out there. I didn’t know if that was a good omen or a bad omen – I just knew that it was slowing down my arrival at the Monte Carlo.

After staying up way too late playing blackjack, I woke up on the afternoon of Christmas Eve with my eye on Tulsa. I had seen Tulsa play twice. I watched them beat Notre Dame and thought, “I know everyone will bag on Notre Dame, but this is a good team.” The second time I saw them was the day after Thanksgiving, when they scored I believe 120 points against Southern Miss. I knew they were good.

As a true sports gambling tourist, I bet everything. I parlayed Tulsa +10 and the over. I put some on the Tulsa money line. I even took Tulsa +5 in the first half. It cannot be stated enough that the only thought running through my mind around this point was I LOVE GAMBLING I LOVE GAMBLING GAMBLING LOVE GAMBLING.

On our way to my grandfather’s for Christmas Eve dinner, I realized our family has a tradition of not watching television during Christmas Eve. Hmm, this could be tricky. But it’s Las Vegas, everyone must have money on the game, right? I know my dad has Tulsa…are we the only two losers with money riding on this game?

As we arrived, the game had just started and my uncle was yelling at a Hawaii player for missing a tackle. How did I celebrate Christmas before this?

Tulsa took the lead into halftime, winning my first bet. They looked good to cover. And the money line seemed reasonable. But the over/under, something well past 70, was going to be close.

The family sat down to eat, a wonderful Italian array of pasta, crab cakes, shrimp and lobster. The game faded briefly to the background as the meal started – the TV remained on but muted.

And then, a Christmas miracle.

Touchdown. Pause. Touchdown. Pause. Touchdown. Pause. Touchdown. In the span of about 10 minutes, or about two minutes of game action, the teams combined for four touchdowns. It was simply perfect.

When you gamble on sports, you always imagine the perfect scenario for you to win your bets. It never happens. During halftime, I told my dad, “I’d be happy with about four touchdowns in the third quarter.” He said he wanted five for the cover before the fourth quarter even started. I laughed. But he was right. They put up five and the over was hit in three quarters.

I spent the fourth quarter constantly looking over my tickets. It made so happy. I did it, I thought. I’m a winner, I told myself.

Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35

Sunday, Dec. 26

I’m going to skip my NFL bets for this day but let’s just say that if Tampa Bay didn’t beat up the Seahawks, I may have had to walk home from Vegas. It wasn’t pretty. I knew my day was going to be painful when I bet on the Jets, a total no-no, and sat down in the sportsbook next to a guy in a Bears jersey. To make matters worse, the Bears guy had his wife with him…and she was wearing a Packers jersey. To make everything even more deplorable, they kissed after every Bears touchdown.

My only solace is that karma’s a bitch and they’re probably not having sex this week.

As for that night’s bowl game, Mother Nature had made that game significantly more important to gamblers. The Vikings/Eagles Sunday night game had been pushed back to Tuesday meaning gamblers looking for a fix bet in droves on the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. And they must’ve all bet on FIU. When I bet that morning, FIU was a one-point favorite. By the time the game started, FIU was a 2.5 point favorite.

Not feeling confident, I parlayed FIU and the over. And for a while, it didn’t look good. Toledo was dominating the game and FIU looked like a bunch of high schoolers who had showed up for the Super Bowl – completely and totally in over their heads. I contemplated leaving the Monte Carlo sportsbook since everyone there had evidently bet on Toledo. It was a bad scene.

Then FIU returned a kick for a touchdown. Then Toledo’s QB threw a pick. Then he threw another one. Out of nowhere, FIU had sprinted to a 31-24 lead with time running out. There was just one minor problem – I was one point short of hitting the over. In that moment, I realized the cruelty of sports gambling.

Even though I had FIU, I needed Toledo to score a tying touchdown to force overtime. If the game ended 31-24, I would lose. At least at 31-31, I would have a chance. So as Toledo marched down the field, I rooted for them. When they scored a touchdown, I whooped it up. Then, they called timeout.

They’re going for two?? What?!?

Things were still okay – if FIU stopped the 2-point conversion, they’d win by 1. I’d push on the spread but still hit the over/under. Okay, a little victory is better than a loss. I reverted back to an FIU fan. It was too late. Toledo hit the 2-pointer. To put it bluntly, I was screwed.

When it got to 4th and forever for FIU, I was more than screwed. I was done. I took my ticket out of my pocket and prepared for the ceremonial “ripping of the losing ticket” that I have perfected at many horse tracks across the country. I never ripped up the ticket.

Straight out of the Boise State no effin way playbook, FIU ran a hook and lateral and it worked! While the sportsbook yelled at the announcers and claimed Toledo was being unfairly screwed, I sunk into my seat and bit my fingernails. This couldn’t happen, could it? I couldn’t win this bet like this…could I?

As FIU lined up for the possible game-winning field goal, I felt all eyes on me. The sportsbook knew I was the only one who had FIU. They knew I was the only one who would celebrate if that kick went through. I said nothing. I didn’t have that much riding on the game, I just knew I wanted it. I don’t remember being more nervous for a kick in my life that didn’t involve my team. The kick went up and, how glorious, it was good from the moment toe hit leather.

I jumped up, pumped my fist twice and yelled, “Hell yeah!” like an absolute idiot. I went right over, cashed in my ticket and walked away with fresh gambling money.

It may not have been the greatest cover in gambling history, but man it felt like it. A hook and lateral? A game-winning field goal? It didn’t dawn on me until a few days later that it took a ridiculous set of circumstances for me to cover. That didn’t matter – I couldn’t lose.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Florida International 34, Toledo 32

Monday, Dec. 27

As a warm-up to Monday night’s huge Falcons/Saints showdown, I put a nice sum on Air Force -3 to take out Georgia Tech. I missed the first half because I got caught at the Bellagio – I sat down with $20 to play a couple of blackjack hands and walked away with $300.

Air Force, though, couldn’t get its option game going. Georgia Tech’s backup punt returner even muffed a kick at midfield. Didn’t matter as Air Force punted. Down 7-6, it looked like my luck had…

“He did it again!” That was the scream I heard from the group behind me with the southern drawls. And they took great pleasure in the Georgia Tech backup punt returner muffing another kick, this time in the red zone.

“You got Air Force?” I asked the Dad of the family.

“Nah, we’re Bulldogs fan. I hate Tech,” responded the Dad.

“And it’d be nice to see an academy win a bowl,” added the Mom.

“Yeah, but it’s more that I hate Tech,” the Dad chimed in.

Air Force punched it in. They would hold on for dear life. I was undefeated in bowl season and coming to grips with the fact I may be the World’s Best College Football Gambler thanks to my undying devotion to the sport.

Independence Bowl: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Of course, pride comes before the fall.

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UConn Needs To Be A Football School To Remain A Basketball School

2011-01-14T11:10:00.000-05:00

There is only one thing we learned from the now-completed job search for the next University of Connecticut football coach – UConn is, was and will always be a basketball school.

When Randy Edsall first scampered away to College Park, UConn fans were buzzing with possibilities for the next head man. Former NFL coaches like Eric Mangini were bandied about. Pro coordinators with impressive resumes, like Kevin Gilbride, came to the forefront. Hot college coordinators like Tom Bradley at Penn State and Garrick McGee at Arkansas were legitimate candidates. Arguably the best coach at the FCS level, Delaware’s KC Keeler, was also a serious candidate.

In the end, UConn ended up with the recently-fired Mark Whipple and the elder Paul Pasqualoni as the two final candidates. They are not exactly the type of names that get the blood going. It was, to say the least, a letdown.

UConn ended up hiring Pasqualoni, the former Syracuse coach that led the then-Orangemen to two BCS bowls and two New Year’s Day bowls prior to that, when New Year’s Day was the equivalent of the BCS. He recruited the heck out of Connecticut, furnishing a pipeline from the Nutmeg State to upstate New York. His Syracuse teams, especially in the late 1990s, produced a boatload of NFL talent. There is no question he is a far superior hire to Whipple, who was just fired at Miami, Fla. and was routinely criticized as a coordinator that failed to dramatically improve the Hurricanes’ woeful offensive output from the previous coaching staff. The Hurricanes scored less points in 2010 than UConn did, and every UConn fan hated how ineffective the UConn offense could be at times.

I’m okay with Pasqualoni, though I think any UConn fan would be lying if they said they were pumped. Yes, Pasqualoni is a respected defensive mind and was about to be defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. But Pasqualoni was also fired from Syracuse six years ago because the Orange had devolved into a very mediocre squad for a half-decade. He is now 61 years old. He is not the Jim Tressel the UConn fans were hoping for.

You remember Jim Tressel pre-Ohio State, right? He was the winning I-AA coach but without the big name or the fancy price tag, at least not yet. He had potential. He was an up-and-comer. He was the future.

UConn fans, from the outset, realized the job was not going to lure a big-name coach. UConn isn’t Michigan, we couldn’t call Les Miles or Jim Harbaugh without being laughed off the phone. But the fans were okay with that. We know the potential in the UConn program. We see the new facilities, the still-new stadium and the general feeling that UConn athletics means winning. We saw an opportunity for a coordinator or lower-division coach to finally get an opportunity at the big time.

It didn’t happen.

And during the process, it became increasingly clear that UConn was hamstrung by the fact the basketball coaches need to make more than the football coach. Edsall left because of it. UConn AD Jeff Hathaway’s refusal to increase the salaries of assistant football coaches played a role in driving Edsall away and scaring off exciting, potential candidates.

It’s unfortunate because football is driving college athletics right now. If you look around the country, I bet you could count on one hand the number of BCS conference basketball coaches that make more than the football coach. And I’m pretty sure Geno Auriemma is the only women’s coach making more bank than the football coach. Still, UConn has refused to address this issue and I have this horrible feeling the football program is going to be left behind.

I hope I’m wrong and very wrong but the current UConn administration seems far too content to keep the basketball coaches happy at the expense of the football team. It may make sense locally, since Connecticut is and has been a basketball state, but it could eventually come to the detriment of the basketball teams.

Former UConn AD Lew Perkins has said over and over again that the decision to bring UConn football to the I-A level was to protect the basketball programs. Football is king and football is going to pave the future of college athletics.

When the rumors about superconferences and conference expansion took over the sporting landscape this summer, it was about football. The Big Ten didn’t invite Nebraska for their basketball team. Utah isn’t joining the Pac-12 because they made the Final Four in 1998. Colorado has one of the worst basketball programs in college sports – they’re moving up to the Pac-12.

UConn has one of the best basketball programs in the nation and is situated in one of the most populous areas of the entire country. Did anyone want UConn? No. Why? Because the football isn’t up to par yet. And one 8-5 Fiesta Bowl-losing season isn’t going to change that.

If Jeff Hathaway really wanted to show how much he cared about Jim and Geno, he would’ve opened up the wallet. He would’ve given the new coach – or Edsall – the $2 million per year they deserve. He would’ve increased the salaries for assistant coaches. He would’ve told the athletic department that UConn cannot fall behind in football or it risks losing everything. The superconference era is coming and UConn needs to be ready.

Right now, UConn isn’t ready. Because being ready right now in college athletics means having an elite football program. Not an 8-win program, not a program that makes bowl games, but a program that challenges for a BCS berth year in and year out.

Look at this year’s BCS lineup. If any of the other nine BCS teams lost its coach, would Pasqualoni or Whipple have even been candidates for the job? Of course not.

But for UConn, that was the best we could do. And that’s not good enough.

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Why Auburn Will Be The 2010 National Champion

2011-01-10T12:14:00.000-05:00

Regular Season Record: 107-94-3
Bowl Record: 17-17
Best Picks: 13-3

Auburn -3 over Oregon
BCS Championship Game
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

I want everyone to realize that I hope everything I right doesn’t come true. College football has fallen into a bit of a rut when it comes to title games since the transcendent 2006 Rose Bowl between Texas and USC. Florida and LSU handled Ohio State easily in the next two title games. Oklahoma/Florida was a close game for three quarters but poorly played and tough to watch. Last year’s title game had one moment when Texas had gotten it within one score in the second half but, let’s be honest, that game was over the second Colt McCoy went down.

I want an all-time classic tonight. I want touchdowns every minute. I want LaMichael James to go for over 200 yards, only to be matched by Cam Newton. I want every fan’s voice hoarse from screaming too much. I want to go to bed early Tuesday morning in that familiar trance you’re in after a fantastic game – the type that stays on your mind and you have to talk about it with co-workers the next morning.

The problem, though, is that Auburn is going to crush Oregon. And it’s not going to be pretty.

This prediction is not about the supposed advantage the SEC has on every other conference college football. TCU proved New Year’s Day that competition during the regular season is little indicator of a team’s worth – blowing out inferior teams by 50 can be the same as beating good teams by a field goal. You can make the argument that Auburn would be more familiar with the big game atmosphere but even the Iron Bowl can’t prepare a team for college football’s Super Bowl.

No, it’s not the intangibles that make this an easy victory. It’s actually two specific advantages that Auburn has over Oregon that will fuel the Tigers – defensive line and endurance.

Oregon received by far its stiffest test of the year from Cal in early November as the Cal defensive line, with some help from faked injuries, were able to effectively slow the Oregon offense to a crawl. Cal was a mediocre 5-7 team that got embarrassed by Nevada and Stanford during the year. But against Oregon, they were able to control the line of scrimmage and effectively plug the Oregon running game early, preventing LaMichael James and company to get into the open field, where they are able to use their speed and elusiveness.

When you watched Auburn this year, two things become readily apparent on defense – they couldn’t defend the pass but they weren’t extremely hard to handle on the line of scrimmage. Look at the difference between the Arkansas and Alabama games. Despite facing the backup quarterback from Arkansas, the Tigers could not stop the passing attack and the Razorbacks shredded Auburn for 43 points. Of course, when you have Cam Newton and put up 65, that 43 gets the job done. But for a passing team – that would’ve been an indicator of success to come.

Alabama, of course, is not a passing team. After a hot start, Auburn was able to successfully put the clamps down on the vaunted Alabama running game by securing the line of scrimmage. Eventually, Auburn knocked Alabama QB Greg McElroy out of the game and won a spirited Iron Bowl. The much-maligned Auburn defense had come up huge yet again, but it was lost in the virtuoso performance put on by Cam Newton.

Against Oregon, Auburn is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Yes, Oregon isn’t going to be ramming it down Auburn’s throat but they need to move the defensive line to get its running game going. Those holes aren’t going to be there early. And they won’t be there later.

Oregon’s biggest advantage is how its tempo on offense wears down opponents and, with its opportunistic defense, the second half and fourth quarter become Oregon’s domain. We saw in the showdown against Stanford where the Ducks withstood Stanford’s early blows and subsequently blew the Cardinal’s doors off in the second half. They did the same to Tennessee. They did the same to Arizona. They didn’t score a point in the first quarter against Washington – they ended up scored 53 in the next three.

For the first time this season, though, Oregon will be facing a team that is just as adept at finishing strong. How many fourth quarter wins did Auburn pull out this year? Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama…the list goes on. Auburn has no issue with tempo. Auburn has no problem going the full 60, and longer if needed, to secure a victory. To put it bluntly – Oregon won’t wear down Auburn.

The key to this game is squarely on the Oregon offense and its ability to stay on the field. I don’t mean they need to stay on the field for 10 minute drives. They do need to stay on the field for at least a few first downs on each possession. They need to get their tempo going and they need to make the Auburn defense work. A three-and-out here and there will effectively eliminate any chance Oregon has at wearing down Auburn.

In the end, this game will likely be decided by the fact Oregon does not have a championship defense. Auburn’s defense, when push came to shove, proved its championship worth when it shut down Alabama, when it slowed down LSU and when it put the clamps on Clemson, South Carolina and Mississippi State late in close games. It wasn’t always pretty but it was effective. Do you trust Oregon’s defense to make a stop with the game on the line? Do you trust Auburn’s?

And at the end of the day, there is another huge advantage tilting in Auburn’s favor and his name is Cam Newton. We saw in the 2006 Rose Bowl that a clash of two juggernauts was decided by the better quarterbacks.

Even if this game is a close one, against my prediction, Oregon still doesn’t have an answer for Newton. They shouldn’t feel bad, of course, as no one has had an answer for Newton. But if superior defenses like LSU and Alabama were helpless against Newton – what will Oregon’s subpar defense bring to the table? Not enough.

It should be Auburn by a lot. It may be Auburn by a little. But it will be Auburn. And you can cue the “S-E-C” chants for another long, nine months until we kick off the 2011 season.

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Randy, You're A Fine Coach....But We Can Do Better

2011-01-04T16:15:00.000-05:00

There was one moment in UConn’s devastating Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma that accurately summed up why I’m not too upset Randy Edsall left town. After giving up a touchdown far too easily, the UConn offense mustered an excellent drive that left them deep in Oklahoma territory with a 4th and 1. Edsall was going for it, as he should. Unfortunately, he forgot one of the oldest truths about college football – get the ball to your All-American. In UConn’s case, there was an actual All-American on the field.

Well, technically, I should say in the stadium because UConn’s All-American running back Jordan Todman was on the sidelines. Yes, with a fourth-down against quite possibly the best team UConn has ever faced, Randy Edsall decided to hand the ball off to his backup running back. He didn’t get the yard. Oklahoma was soon up 14-0 and UConn was playing a game of catch-up it couldn’t possibly win.

The news of Edsall’s departure came in between flights back from the West Coast. It was an odd sensation because I wasn’t angry. I wasn’t upset, though I later would become upset for how he handled it. (Here's an excellent article from Tim Keown on ESPN.com about that) In fact, I must admit, I was sort of happy. The team I saw on the field Saturday night didn’t cut it for me as a fan. I don’t care that we were playing Oklahoma. UConn wasn’t in the same league as Oklahoma. That should never happen. I never want to root for a team that has no chance.

For all the praise heaped upon Edsall from the national football media, that same love has not always been there for him locally. I can’t claim to be a “longtime” UConn football supporter, since I jumped on the bandwagon in the early 2000s after the move to I-A was already in progress. Randy Edsall is the only football coach I’ve known. And I haven’t always been happy about it. In fact, it could be argued that Edsall actually regressed as a coach – his 2003 and 2004 teams were as good as any team he produced since.

More pressing, there have been times I wanted Edsall gone. During losing seasons in 2005 and 2006, head-scratching decision after head-scratching decision left me wanting a new coach. Even the school’s first Big East “championship” came after a six-touchdown loss to the real champion in 2007, West Virginia. In 2008, with four players set to be picked in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, UConn could do no more than a win in the International Bowl.

Then we come to this year and, in retrospect, UConn should’ve finished the regular season 12-0. Maybe 11-1, since Denard Robinson played so outstanding in the opener. The loss to Temple should never have happened, considering the game turned when an injured Todman fumbled the ball away. The loss to Rutgers should never have happened, blowing a fourth-quarter lead to a team that wouldn’t win another conference game. The Louisville debacle, the low point, caused many in the state to call for Edsall’s job.

Edsall, however, had the media in his pocket and the local writers, particularly the [expletive deleted] at the Hartford Courant, lambasted fans for wanting a change. They defended Edsall up and down and felt vindicated when he took UConn to the Big East crown. Never mind the fact we needed a complete Pitt meltdown, or seven West Virginia fumbles, or a win over a USF team starting a walk-on QB…Edsall had proven himself again. I appreciated Edsall for what it had done but I always felt like he was receiving an inordinate amount of praise.

Sure, this may sound like sour grapes after our coach just left town but, to be quite honest, UConn can do better than Randy Edsall. How do I know? Because 25 years ago, our men’s basketball program was in far worse shape and Jim Calhoun turned it into one of the absolute elite programs, matching Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke with multiple national championships in his tenure. Do I even need to rehash what Geno Auriemma has done?

But football is different, people say. It takes time, reporters write. You can’t win at UConn, critics lament. I want to know why UConn can’t succeed in the most populous section of the country but Boise State, who navigated their own path from I-AA and play in Idaho, has two BCS bowl wins and we have zero.

I want to know why everyone says there are no good football players from Connecticut but homegrown Aaron Hernandez is starting for the Patriots. I want to know why each year, the best Connecticut players head to Iowa and Penn State. I want to know why the five-star recruits from Pennsylvania and New Jersey, within a few hours drive, are somehow impossible for UConn to get.

The myth, perpetuated by the national football media and driven by Edsall himself, is that UConn is nearly an impossible job with almost zero chance of success. Excuse me? Did Jim Calhoun ever say that in the 1980s? Has Geno ever made that excuse? Of course not.

I will never criticize Edsall for how hard he worked or how he did, without question, build the program. But at some point, going 8-5 every year doesn’t cut it. Did we enjoy the victories? Of course. Did we hate the losses? You bet. But it’s different for a UConn fan.

You can call UConn a basketball school and some say that’s a deterrent, a reason why UConn fans as a whole haven’t embraced the football program. That’s false. This community was ready for football – the home opener at Rentschler Field in 2003 was sold out.

This community, though, has high standards. Our men’s basketball team has two national titles and countless Big East titles. The women…well, they just won 90 games in a row. Our soccer teams are always nationally ranked. Our baseball team – yes, our baseball team in frozen Connecticut – is becoming an annual contender.

At the University of Connecticut, you need to produce a winner. I don’t mean a “barely above .500” winner, I mean a “national title contender” winner. We don’t want excuses. We don’t want reasons why we can’t be that. We want to be that.

If I were a coach looking for a prime opportunity, UConn would make my mouth water.

A conference with no power team and an automatic BCS berth. One of the largest television markets in the country sandwiched between two of the biggest, in NYC and Boston. A television deal with SNY, a cable network in the nation’s biggest city. The largest sports network in history is literally right down the road. A brand name in UConn that is known practically the world over thanks to the basketball teams. A new stadium that could be expanded if necessary. New $30 million facilities on campus that are among the newest and plushest in the country. A day’s drive to some of the best high school football talent in the country in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

UConn is a better job than Maryland. We deserve a better coach than them too.

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College Football's Last Great New Year's Day

2011-01-01T05:33:00.000-05:00

As of this morning, it has now been 17 years to the day when college football lost its innocence. New Year’s Day 1994 took place on a Saturday – fitting for a sport that become synonymous with autumn Saturdays and tradition. It was the last time college football, and the powers that run the sport, could claim they cared about their athletes without an entire room laugh at the hypocrisy.

There was no BCS and no ‘true’ national champion for the 1993 college football regular season, only a loosely defined Bowl Coalition that was hopelessly flawed in every way possible. But the Rose Bowl was Pac-10 vs. Big Ten, period. The Big 8 champion played in the Orange Bowl. The SEC champion played in the Sugar Bowl. The Southwest Conference champion played in the Cotton Bowl.

Success in college football was defined by two things – winning your conference and/or playing on New Year’s Day. Playing in a New Year’s Day bowl was the equivalent of a BCS bowl in today’s era. Except the games wouldn’t be spread out over 10 days – they would be spread out over 10 hours.

The 1993 college football season was one of the more epic in the decade. Notre Dame defeated Florida State in the Game of the Century – no regular season game since has been watched by more people. The Irish followed up the win with its legendary loss to Glenn Foley and Boston College. West Virginia completed a remarkable undefeated regular season, dethroning Miami. Arizona and its famed Desert Swarm defense made national headlines. Nebraska believed it was poised to finally win a national title for Tom Osborne. Wisconsin was heading to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 31 years and playing the home standing UCLA Bruins.

For the next 12 hours, the traditions of college football would go out in a blaze of glory that ended up being, quite frankly, the best day of football in my lifetime. I was 11 years old and, thanks to New Year’s Day falling on a Saturday, I knew I could stay up late to watch all the football. On a scale of 1 to 10, my excitement level was a 23.

It began in the Fiesta Bowl. Because the Rose Bowl agreement with its partner conferences included a clause preventing conference teams from competing with it, the Fiesta Bowl between Arizona and Miami was moved to earlier in the day, 1pm on NBC. Sun Devil Stadium was sold out and they saw a historic game – the Wildcats and its Desert Swarm defense shut out Miami.

It could be argued that the 1994 Fiesta Bowl marked the end of the U as we knew it. They would go 10-1 in the 1994 season, but lost to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, probation would soon follow and the team wouldn’t reemerge as national powers until the 2000s under drastically different circumstances. Arizona was the first team in nearly a decade to embarrass Miami on a national stage. The day was just beginning.

The start of the Rose Bowl brought with it a shock that is still being discussed today – tens of thousands of Wisconsin fans who flew to the Rose Bowl thinking they had tickets but they in actuality had counterfeits. Google “Rose Bowl Wisconsin” and you’ll see news stories today warning Badgers fans to avoid being duped again. The Rose Bowl game itself marked the end of UCLA’s dominance in the Pac-10 – they’ve been back only once since – and the beginning of the current Wisconsin run. The strong Badgers program you’ll watch take the field later today was born, in some cases quite literally, in 1993.

But I wasn’t watching the Rose Bowl game. My father is a Notre Dame alum. We were watching Notre Dame battle Texas A&M in the last great Cotton Bowl. The Southwest Conference would send only one more champion to the game – a woeful Texas Tech that would be drilled by USC the following year. The Cotton Bowl had been moved to late afternoon by NBC and the network was rewarded with one of the best games in the bowl’s history.

There was more than a little background. The Irish were 10-1 and its fans believed they should win the national title over a one-loss Florida State team since the Irish beat the Seminoles. It was also the third Cotton Bowl matchup between the teams, with the Aggies beating the Tim Brown-led team in 1988 and Rick Mirer leading an easy 28-3 victory the year prior. It was the rubber match. The two teams went back and forth in classic fashion until the Irish finally pulled out a 28-24 victory.

My father, ever embodying class, said, “Good game R.C.” to the television as NBC lingered on a shot of a defeated and dejected A&M coach R.C. Slocum. With the notable exception of the 1998 Big XII championship victory over Kansas State, Texas A&M hasn’t reached those heights since. Neither has Notre Dame.

The stage was now set for two primetime showdowns to crown a national champion. In the Sugar Bowl, undefeated and #3 West Virginia aimed to make a statement against SEC champion Florida. There was a statement made in that game…by the Gators. Florida demolished West Virginia 41-7. It was Florida’s first Sugar Bowl victory ever. Yes, the vaunted Florida program was not the juggernaut you see today for its entire history. No, the juggernaut you see today was born on New Year’s Night in 1994 – Florida has claimed the mantle of SEC’s poster team from Alabama and they haven’t relinquished yet. As for West Virginia, their inability to finally win a national title has lingered until just last week, as coach Bill Stewart was pushed aside because, as their AD said, he couldn’t win a national championship.

The main event of the evening took place in the Orange Bowl between undefeated Nebraska and one-loss Florida State. There were storylines everywhere. Both Tom Osborne and Bobby Bowden were certified Hall of Famers with one glaring omission on their resumes – winning a national title. The Seminoles were led by Heisman winner Charlie Ward. Nebraska was a 16-point underdog, the memory of so many previous Orange Bowl beatdowns fresh in everyone’s mind. Heck, just a year prior Florida State had whipped Nebraska in the same bowl game. History, most assumed, would repeat itself.

Instead, the Orange Bowl was treated to arguably its last classic – the BCS has been unkind to the prior king of bowl games. In a defensive battle and an emotion struggle, the teams battled late into the night – thanks to television and the game’s notoriously long halftime show, the game ended at some point past 1 a.m. The ending is a famous one with Bowden getting a premature Gatorade bath, a second being put back on the clock and Nebraska’s last chance field goal attempt sailing wide left. Florida State had prevailed 18-16.

The next morning, the polls came out and confirmed Florida State as the #1 team in the country with Notre Dame at #2. Yes, the team that beat Florida State ended up behind them in the polls. I remember my disappointment that Sunday morning about Notre Dame finishing #2. But I also remembering being thoroughly satisfied and over the moon about the previous day’s games.

When people ask me why I love bowl games, my thoughts immediately turn back to that New Year’s Day. I can vividly remember everything about that day, including where I positioned my bean bag chair in front of the television and how the food tasted – my Dad would get finger foods like little hot dogs and shrimp cocktail for New Year’s, a tradition I’ve continued.

I remember the images. The sight of Arizona dancing on the field as they whipped Miami. The thousands of Wisconsin fans forced to watch the Rose Bowl on large screen televisions. The Cotton Bowl, the first on natural grass, played under the cover of darkness for the first time. The speed of Florida as they ran by West Virginia. The grit of Nebraska. The respect my father had for Tom Osborne. The way the Orange Bowl field managed to cover every player in grass stains. The look on Bobby Bowden’s face as he was told about the extra added second. The look on Osborne’s face when that final kick sailed wide.

It is amazing to look back and see how much that day impacted college football for the next decade. Powers such as UCLA, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Miami would never be the same. New powers such as Wisconsin, Florida and Florida used the day to cement its status. And one power, Nebraska, served notice that it would no longer be subject to annual bowl game beatings from Florida schools.

The day was perfect, maybe in part because it never happened again. The next year, New Year’s Day fell on Sunday meaning most games would be played on Monday, Jan. 2, 1995. The contrarian Orange Bowl, sensing opportunity, played its game on New Year’s Night and effectively crowned Nebraska as the national champion before the other games could be played.

By the 1995 season, the dreaded Bowl Alliance took shape – moving one of the big bowl games to New Year’s Eve and another to Jan 2. New Year’s Day was effectively ruined. I remember something vividly from that year too – the shocking number of empty seats when Florida State played Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. College football had gone down a different path and fans weren’t happy about it.

On New Year’s Day 1994, 70,000 fans packed the Cotton Bowl. 72,000 watched the Fiesta Bowl. The Sugar Bowl attracted 75,000. The Rose Bowl had more than 101,000 fans. The Orange Bowl fit 80,000+ and drew an insane 18.0 TV rating. In one day, nearly 400,000 fans packed the stadiums for five bowl games.

It was everything college football was ever about. The pageantry, the traditions, the exciting matchups, the thrilling storylines and the New Year’s Day holiday.

On New Year’s Day 2011, 7-5 Texas Tech will play 7-5 Northwestern at a half-empty Cotton Bowl. The only game on broadcast television will be a matchup between 7-5 Florida and 7-5 Penn State that will likely not be sold out. The evening’s matchup between UConn and Oklahoma will be a technical sellout, but there could be up to 15,000 unsold tickets from the two schools’ allotment. The Rose Bowl will not feature a Pac-10 team for the third time in ten years, following a half-century of Pac-10/Big Ten matchups. The Orange and Sugar Bowls won’t be played on New Year’s Day and the national champion won’t be crowned for another nine days.

When people talk about how the BCS has ruined college football, they focus on the national championship. In truth, that’s the only thing the BCS has managed to get right, producing only one split national championships in its history.

Unfortunately, what we have lost due to the BCS, we may never get back unless the powers at be wake up. There was a time when college football produced the best sporting day of the year each and every year.

I wanted to write, “a time not too long ago,” but 17 years is a long time.

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My College Football Christmas Wishes

2010-12-25T10:25:00.000-05:00

This is what I hope Santa brings for me….and college football….this Christmas.

Less bowl games

Look, I love bowl games. A lot. If there were 50 bowl games, I’d probably end up watching most of them. But that doesn’t mean I’d like it. The number of bowl games has exploded, doubling in the BCS era. I’m not going to fault any organizer for trying to create a game but, come on, we’ve reached our limit. In fact, we’re over our limit.

So let’s cut the number to 30, at least. A bowl game needs to again reward teams for having good seasons, not just average seasons. To make it easier, let’s raise the number of wins necessary to reach a bowl up to seven wins. If you go .500, I’m sorry, you really don’t deserve a reward. It’s more than a little unfair that 8-4 Temple is staying home, losing its coach in the process, while a dreadful 6-6 UTEP team gets national television exposure.

Far less FBS vs. FCS games

There was a time not so long ago that FBS teams could play FCS teams – then I-A vs. I-AA – but the victory would not count toward bowl eligibility. Then, the NCAA changed the rules and allowed teams to count one victory toward eligibility. That has backfired in the worst way possible. Every FBS team save for UCLA, USC and Notre Dame has played an FCS team in the past five years. It’s a joke. Some schools, such as Syracuse and Arizona, actually scheduled TWO FCS teams.

We need these games to be eliminated or at least drastically reduced. How do we do that? Simple – go back to having them not count toward bowl eligibility. If Florida or Alabama want a late-season scrimmage against an FCS team for a nice, easy payday, bully for them. But it won’t help them get into a bowl.

More specifically, these would eliminate teams such as Syracuse or Clemson sneaking into bowl games thanks to victories over lower division teams. There’s absolutely no reason why these games should count. It’s ruined September – once a month filled with exciting, inter-conference matchups. Now, it’s a month filled with 62-7 scores and dreadful schedules.

More unique bowl matchups

Did you know that the Auburn/Oregon game will be the first Pac-10/SEC BCS bowl matchup in the BCS era? What a joke. I don’t need to see five Big Ten/SEC games every year. I don’t need to see the ACC/Big East have any more pillow fights. Can the Pac-10 and Big XII play other conferences?

Here’s a few suggestions:

A Pac-10/SEC bowl series. The Holiday Bowl and the Gator Bowl are two traditional bowls that are rapidly losing its standing in the bowl hierarchy. Let’s fix that. Both games become Pac-12 vs. SEC – somewhere between the #3 and #6 selections for each conference. The tickets will be divided up so the “home” conference will be on the hook for most of the tickets. For example, the Gator Bowl will give 15,000 tickets to the SEC team but only 5,000 to the Pac-10. Flip that for the Holiday Bowl.

An ACC/Big Ten matchup. This existed the last few years at the Champs Sports Bowl and produced two interesting matchups, at least on paper, in the past two years with Wisconsin/Florida State and Wisconsin/Miami. Why did this stop? The conferences have a good basketball rivalry, it could translate to the gridiron.

The MAC champion vs. the Sun Belt champion. In the 2010 GMAC Bowl, MAC champion Central Michigan and Sun Belt champion Troy played a wonderfully exciting game. We need more champion vs. champion games. The GMAC Bowl is now the GoDaddy.com Bowl but its location in Alabama makes it a prime candidate to host an annual battle of champions – a mini-Rose Bowl if you will.

More flexibility. I’m tired of the same conference matchups every year because it inevitably forces teams lower on the bowl food chain if they played in a bowl the year before. I would like to see a couple of bowls come together to split up teams differently each year. I’m envisioning a group of three to four bowls signing deals with six conferences, maybe Notre Dame and the independents, to create different matchups each year. Create a poor man’s BCS, with a selection order and deals to give us the best games. We know the bowls are created to give us the best matchups – so give us the best matchups.

No more excessive celebration penalties on game-winning plays.

Is there anything stupider than a team being penalized because the whole team rushed the field after a likely game-winning touchdown? The excessive celebration penalty was instituted to prevent taunting, not raw showings of emotion.

Start overtime at the 30 yard line

There’s nothing less exciting than a team getting a turnover in overtime and then turning around a kicking a field goal without having to gain a yard. It sort of ruins the excitement. Most college kickers are able to drill a 42-yard field goal. For some reason, most college kickers are not able to drill a 47-yard field goal. The point of the college overtime was to eliminate the NFL-style of winning games by playing it safe and kicking field goals. At least make a team gain some yards before kicking a game winner.

No BCS bashing until Thanksgiving weekend

I can’t tell you how many articles I read and how many personalities I listened to ripping the BCS for excluding an undefeated Boise State and/or TCU from the national title game and/or a BCS bowl. This started in October. It ended up being a lot of wasted time. The BCS doesn’t make its selections in October, or even November. You would think after 12 years, we’d realize we have to wait for the entire season to play out but I guess that would fly directly in the face of our Twitter generation. Speaking of which…

Let them tweet!

I’m so sick and tired of football coaches, and coaches in general, preventing their players from using social media, particularly Twitter. Why? Why are the players forced to talk to the media but not allowed to directly talk to their fans? College football players should be allowed to share with their world their feelings, whether that means dissing an opponent, talking about how good the team is or, in the case of Terrelle Pryor, making news. Twitter is the future, embrace it.

More inter-conference home and home series

I loved Virginia Tech/Boise State in DC. I enjoyed LSU/North Carolina in the Georgia Dome. But the trend of preseason “bowl games” is getting really old, really quick. I know LSU is playing Oregon in Dallas. Wouldn’t you rather see a home and home between those two? Boise is playing Georgia in Atlanta – wouldn’t a Georgia trip to Boise be infinitely more exciting?

Regular season college football is not meant to be played at neutral sites. A game or two to showcase the sport on opening weekend, that’s fine. And that’s more than enough. Give me LSU/Oregon in Death Valley and Boise State/Georgia on the blue turf. I don’t want to see Alabama play Michigan at JerryWorld in Dallas, I want to see Alabama in the Big House. Don’t you?

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Bowl Picks Part III: New Year's Bowls

2010-12-20T12:39:00.000-05:00

Bowl Picks Part I: The Undercard

Bowl Picks Part II: Bowl Week

I miss New Year’s Day. I don’t think enough is made about what we lost when the BCS took hold in 1998 and the Bowl Alliance prior to that starting in 1995. New Year’s Day was the undisputed best sporting day of the year. There wasn’t even a close second. Even as a kid, I knew, New Year’s Day meant football, food and at least 12 hours of awesome.

Now clearly the decision for the bowls to move to different days was to prevent channel-flipping and increase ratings but it ruined the essence of New Year’s Day. When all the games were on New Year’s Day, you were all but guaranteed a full day of exciting football – exciting being the key word. The Rose Bowl not doing it for you this year? Switch to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sugar Bowl a blowout? It’s all good, there’s the Orange Bowl.

The problem with the current setup is that there’s always a chance that your New Year’s Day falls far short of expectations. I remember New Year’s Day 2003 vividly – Oklahoma and Georgia came through with blowouts in the Rose and Sugar Bowls. I ended up watching VH1’s I Love The 80s that entire day and I was really sad. Something similar happened in 2007 when USC embarrassed Illinois and then Georgia did the same that night in the Sugar Bowl. No surprise that was the lowest-rated Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl of the BCS era.

Channel flipping is okay if it’s between football games. The NFL seems to do okay every Sunday. Channel flipping is not okay if it means no football on New Year’s Day. Oh well, enough of my bitching. Maybe someday, the powers at be will realize that a vibrant New Year’s Day would silence a lot of the BCS haters via distraction.

Texas Tech -9.5 over Northwestern
TicketCity Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, noon, ESPNU
You know, just because the Cotton Bowl left the Cotton Bowl stadium doesn’t mean you need to shove a game in there on New Year’s morning. I say that now but there was a very real chance that Texas was going to land here for most of November. As is, we have a Texas Tech team that showed a little fight late in the year against a Northwestern team without its best player, QB Dan Persa. In the two games Persa has been out, Northwestern has been destroyed by Illinois and Wisconsin. I understand getting a month to prepare might help but it’s not nearly enough. Texas Tech will enjoy stomping the yard in the Cotton Bowl. If they close their eyes and make believe the 40,000 empty seats don’t exist, they could fool themselves into thinking they’re winning the Cotton Bowl. Or not.

Penn State +7 over Florida
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
I’m a little worried with reports that disenfranchised Florida fans starting gobbling up tickets once they found out it would be Urban Meyer’s last game. Will this Florida team rise up and send Urban out with a victory? Most times, I would agree Florida has the superior motivation along with superior talent, so they should win easy. But despite Florida’s talent, they have failed to beat a team with a pulse all year, with the possible exception of 6-6 Georgia. They finished the year with two pathetic efforts in blowout losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Forget about SEC strength – Florida is not very good this year. Penn State, on the other hand, ended the year strong, going 4-2 with the losses coming to two Top 10 teams. And they gave Michigan State all they wanted and Ohio State all they wanted for a half. Penn State is a young, improving team and those are usually the type of teams that come up big in bowl games. I’ll take them over the underachievers from Florida.

Michigan State +10 over Alabama
Capital One Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
In my mind, this game is a total toss up. On paper, Alabama has better talent. But on paper, Alabama has better talent than every team they played this year and they lost three times. I also have serious concerns about Alabama’s motivation. They were supposed to contend for another national title, with the BCS as an absolute must. Instead, they lost three times, gave away the Auburn game and have a boatload of players with one foot out the door for the NFL. Mark Dantonio has his Michigan State team believing they need to win this game to validate their regular season and you know he wants to beat his former mentor, Nick Saban. And for Michigan State fans – they haven’t forgotten about Saban jumping ship back in 1999 at the first opportunity to do so. Alabama is about a touchdown better in my opinion but Michigan State has about a touchdown advantage in motivation. This game will be close and Michigan State will pull out a close one late.

Mississippi State -5 over Michigan
Gator Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
I am really, really looking forward to this game, probably more so than just about anyone else is. I remember Mississippi State bottling up Cam Newton back in September, basically the only team all year that was able to do so. Will they be able to do the same thing to Denard Robinson? How does Michigan come out knowing that Rich Rodriguez’s job could be on the line if they lose? I also believe Mississippi State will come out with extra fire knowing that coach Dan Mullen, in all likelihood, isn’t going anywhere this offseason and they can continue to build on a remarkable season. There will be a lot of Bulldogs fans and cowbells in the stands…and I think they’re going to be celebrating.

Wisconsin +2.5 over TCU
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
I have gone back and forth on this pick and I continue to do so. And I will likely continue to do so up until kickoff time. Why Wisconsin? Because last year’s Fiesta Bowl remains too fresh in my memory. TCU was simply not ready for the enormity of the moment against a confident, veteran Boise State team that understood the early struggles were part of the big game experience. You could say TCU has learned but how do we know? What other big game did they play in? They played one big game this year and they blew Utah out. The only other “big game” they played was against a 5-7 Oregon State team, who they let hang around until Oregon State shot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to shoot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to be overcome by the moment. The Badgers have the confidence, the talent and the running game to dictate the pace and feel of the game. In the end, this will end up being a Wisconsin game more than a TCU game and the Badgers will win out in the end. One unfortunate by product of blowing everyone out is not going through the myriad situations that come up in close games.

UConn +17 over Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 8 p.m., ESPN
Okay, so as a UConn season ticket holder, I’m not going to make an objective pick here. I fully understand Oklahoma is a superior team. I know the Sooners have a better offense. There are two things UConn can match up with Oklahoma, though, and they’re pretty important – coaching and defense. I’m not going to say Randy Edsall is a better coach than Bob Stoops but it’s an even matchup, in my eyes. And secondly, UConn simply has a better defense than Oklahoma. You can argue the OU defense is underrated because the offense puts up such gaudy numbers. However, the UConn defense has carried the Huskies in their five-game winning streak. So how does UConn win, or at least cover? It’s all about defense. The UConn defense stands firm, clogs up Oklahoma with its bend and don’t break philosophy and the Sooners get frustrated with field goals. I saw it happen to West Virginia. I saw it happen to Pitt. I hope to see it happen again New Year’s Night.

Or Oklahoma wins by 50. There’s really no in-between here.

Stanford -3 over Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl
Monday, Jan. 3, 8 p.m., ESPN
I think this game is a bigger referendum on ACC football than people are making it out to be. The conference has won a grand total of ONE major bowl game since Florida State won the national title in 1999. The lone win? Virginia Tech taking down Cincinnati in the least attended, least viewed Orange Bowl in many, many years, if not ever. The ACC needs a victory. Virginia Tech has been the conference’s standard bearer since it joined in 2004 but has been stunningly unable to beat the quality nonconference opponents. Here’s another opportunity…and they have no chance. Stanford is going to obliterate Virginia Tech. Stanford would’ve gone 12-0 in the ACC and may not have been played a game within two touchdowns. At some point, we may realize the ACC is the worst football conference but at least on Jan. 3rd, we’ll get another reminder. And sadly, there will be another round of “the ACC is finally good in football!” stories come August, because there is every August. The ACC falls to 1-10 in BCS bowl games since 2000. Yes, 1-10!

Arkansas +3.5 over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4, 8 p.m., ESPN
I cannot wait for this game for a multitude of reasons. First, the atmosphere should be incredible with at least 25,000 Arkansas fans fired up and ready to go, along with the usual horde of Ohio State fans that show up anywhere. Secondly, there is NFL-quality talent all over the field, starting with both quarterbacks. Third, the coaching matchup is delicious with the new-school Bobby Petrino matching wits against the decidedly old-school Jim Tressel. As if all of that weren’t enough, we get the fun added subplot of Ohio State being a miserable 0-9 against the SEC in bowl games. It will be 0-10 come Jan. 5th because Ohio State does not have a defense good enough to slow down Arkansas. And unless Pryor morphs back into his Rose Bowl form, Ohio State won’t be able to keep up in a shootout.

Middle Tennessee +1.5 over Miami, Ohio
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
Middle Tennessee is the best 6-6 team in Sun Belt history. They were without QB Dwight Dasher, the team’s best player for the first four games that included two tight losses to Minnesota and Memphis. If Dasher plays all 12, I saw Middle Tennessee is at least 8-4, if not 9-3. Miami, Ohio, on the other hand, made a crazy turnaround from last year’s 1-11 record but were handed the MAC title game by Northern Illinois, which has inflated their team’s reputation. Middle Tennessee should be favored – especially since Miami just lost its coach to Pitt – and they will prove so in a nice win for the Sun Belt. And we saw another Sun Belt/MAC matchup in the New Orleans Bowl and it wasn’t pretty for the MAC.

LSU -1 over Texas A&M
Cotton Bowl
Friday, Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Another game that should benefit from an electric atmosphere in JerryWorld on a Friday night. Texas A&M definitely enters the game with more momentum but how well will that hold up roughly six weeks after its last game? LSU could use the time off to get the bad taste out of its mouth following the year-end loss to Arkansas that really soured the season for LSU. Did you know this is the only Big XII/SEC matchup of the postseason? That doesn’t seem right, does it? Texas A&M’s vaunted offense looked downright pedestrian in its last outing against an elite defense, struggling mightily to score in an ugly victory over Nebraska. Unfortunately for A&M, LSU has an even better defense. LSU wins a close, low-scoring, ugly affair.

Pitt -3 over Kentucky
BBVA Compass Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 8, noon, ESPN
What’s the opposite of an electric atmosphere? I’d say the decrepit Legion Field on a Saturday afternoon in January with two football teams that would rather be anywhere else in the world. Pitt just fired its coach while Kentucky fans, even though it was the first year for new head man Joker Phillips, are tired of 6-6 seasons ending with crappy bowl appearances. I give Pitt the nod here since they have better players, they showed a lot of heart in the season-ending win over Cincinnati and they’ll be motivated internally to win the game for Dave Wannstedt. Kentucky just isn’t very good, as evident by their poor season-ending loss to Tennessee.

Nevada -9.5 over Boston College
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Sunday, Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Hide the women and children. Nevada is a legit top 10 team with an unstoppable offense and they’re very excited to be in San Francisco along with more than 20,000 of its fans who have reportedly snapped up tickets. Boston College is a middling, offensively offensive team that only made it to bowl eligibility thanks to a Charmin soft schedule. Nevada’s best win: national title contender Boise State. BC’s best win: 6-6 Clemson. Uhh, yeah. If Nevada didn’t want to be here, they could lose. But they do want to be here. This game will serve as a nationally-televised three-plus hour celebration of the winningest class in Nevada football history. Boston College is just there to get beat.

I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Randy Edsall, since I’m in an anti-BC place right now, “UConn is the first team from New England to play in a BCS bowl.” Indeed, Coach Edsall, indeed.

National title pick coming and analysis coming in 2011. Hint: Auburn, by a lot.

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Bowl Picks Part II: Bowl Week

2010-12-20T05:56:00.000-05:00

Bowl Picks Part I: The Undercard

Bowl Picks Part III: New Year's Bowls

The week between Christmas and New Year’s is my favorite week of the year. I really don’t understand why people hate bowls so much. From Monday through New Year’s Day, there is almost literally always a football game on. Wednesday at 3pm? Check. Thursday at noon? Check. Friday morning at 1 a.m.? Check. Why would we ever want to get rid of this?

When I was in college, I took great pride in trying to watch every single bowl game during my winter break. I was able to do so in 2002, highlighted by a tremendously uninteresting Oklahoma State/Southern Miss bowl game on an early weekday afternoon. It prompted my younger sister, than in high school, to proclaim, “You really need to get a life.” It was one of my prouder moments.

West Virginia -3 over North Carolina State
Champs Sports Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
It’s been a crazy time for West Virginia football to say the least, considering Coach Bill Stewart apparently knew he was toast in early November. They really, really don’t like losing to UConn in Morgantown. More pressing for this game, how will the players react? I’m not sure if we’ve ever seen a situation like this before where the coach is on his way out…but not for another year. We’ve seen teams rally around lame duck coaches. Will West Virginia rally around Stewart who is a lame duck coach for more than a year? An incredibly bizareer situation. With all those questions running through my mind, I went with West Virginia because they’re the better team. NC State proved in their pitiful season-ending loss to Maryland that they’re not ready to be a winning program yet. They may become that. They just aren’t yet. West Virginia would like to get to 10 wins and make a statement about its elite status within the Big East. I think.

Missouri -1 over Iowa
Insight Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
It’s been a crazy time for Iowa football to say the least, considering its best wide receivers was running a drug house, its starting running back is suspended and school officials are admitting there were flaws in its drug testing program. Uh, that’s not good. Missouri is seemingly always miffed by its bowl selection. Most years, they’re stunned who passed them over. This year, they’re stunned they were picked over Nebraska. There’s really no reason why this isn’t Nebraska/Iowa – an infinitely more interesting Big Ten preview game – and why Missouri isn’t in the Holiday Bowl, where they have been in ages. Missouri is a far superior team to the Iowa squad that lost its last three, including a woeful effort against Minnesota. Iowa’s only hope is that the off-field distractions caused the players to rally around each other. Unfortunately, they’re still not good enough to win.

East Carolina +7 over Maryland
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Another simple pick based on motivation – East Carolina wants to be here, Maryland doesn’t. In fact, Maryland has gone out of its way to voice its displeasure with being passed over in the ACC bowl pecking order and ending up in a game 20 miles from campus against a middling Conference USA team. I can’t feel too bad for Maryland since they can’t sell out their stadium and are in serious danger of being outdrawn for this game by the middle Conference USA team. East Carolina is a perfect bowl team because they score like crazy and don’t care about defense. They will be amped up, they will be well-supported and they will score a lot of points. If Maryland pulls it out, it won’t be easy, and it won’t be by more than a touchdown.

Baylor -1.5 over Illinois
Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Baylor is playing in its first bowl game since 1994 and early reports have Texas Bowl tickets flying out the door to excited Baylor fans and alums. Illinois, on the other hand, is coming off of a disappointing loss to Fresno State to end the season a very mediocre 6-6. It’s an interesting measure of the Big XII and the Big Ten considering both teams basically beat the bad teams in its conference and lost to the good ones. Who is better? I like Baylor based strictly on the fact Robert Griffin is their quarterback. The last time Illinois faced a quarterback that athletically talented, Denard Robinson was having the game of his life, which is really saying something, before getting injured. No matter, since Tate Forcier came in and did the same to a weak Illinois defense. They will have no answer for Griffin.

Oklahoma State -5.5 over Arizona
Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
An easy BEST PICK for Bowl Week and, honestly, I don’t think they could’ve made this line high enough. I’m well aware Okie State is disappointed from the Oklahoma loss and still feels like it finally had a chance to crack the BCS. It didn’t happen but it was still a huge leap forward for the program to have such a great season when they weren’t expected to. They are becoming a yearly power in the Big XII under Mike Gundy. As for Arizona, their dream season turned into a nightmare with a terrible four-game losing streak to end the year, including a loss to mediocre in-state rival Arizona State. The only team of note Arizona beat was Iowa and, well, the Hawkeyes weren’t very good this year either. Oklahoma State couldn’t beat the elite teams but they handled just about everyone else. Arizona falls into the ‘everyone else’ category.

SMU -8 over Army
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, noon, ESPN
I want to pick Army. I would really like to see them win this game. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. Army had a great year and it is a definite building block for the future. But they didn’t beat anyone of note, and were uncompetitive in games against Notre Dame and Navy down the stretch. SMU isn’t a powerhouse, but it won its Conference USA division and is clearly trending upwards under June Jones. The fact that SMU will be playing this game in their home stadium – their first mainland bowl game since pre-Death Penalty – should give us a motivated Mustangs team ready to make another statement about the program’s resurrection. For 2010, Army’s goal was to make a bowl game. I think their goal in 2011 will be to win one.

Syracuse PICK over Kansas State
Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 3:15 p.m., ESPN
The last time I watched Syracuse play, they were getting ambushed by UConn. The Huskies have a good defense but they looked like the 85 Bears against Syracuse. They could’ve played 12 quarters that night and Syracuse wouldn’t have scored a touchdown. So why am I picking Syracuse? Because the game isn’t at the Carrier Dome! Yes, ‘Cuse was dreadful at home but wonderful on the road, beating West Virginia and South Florida as well as destroying Cincinnati. If there’s a logical explanation, I’d love to hear it. Kansas State had a very blah season – arguably the only game that sticks out is the beatdown Nebraska delivered on a Thursday night. This is a huge game for Syracuse and its program. I don’t see it meaning nearly as much for Kansas State.

Tennessee +2 over North Carolina
Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 6:45 p.m., ESPN
The All-Freshman Team, aka Tennessee, is ready to make a statement. Isn’t it funny how many bowl games are about making statements or referendums about where a program is? It’s almost more important than skill levels or x’s and o’s. In this game, Tennessee is over the moon they were able to make a bowl game after starting 2-6 to get the extra bowl practices for its young roster and allow its fans to descend on Nashville. UNC has had a trying year, to say the least, and ending up in this game is certainly not what was expected back in August, before the suspensions, allegations and scandal. And no bowl win is going to erase the black mark on the program. UT, on the other hand, appears to be coming out from the other side of the Lane Kiffin error and this will put the cherry on top of a surprisingly successful 7-6 season.

Washington +14 over Nebraska
Holiday Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Yes, we already saw this game. Yes, we already saw Nebraska destroy Washington. So why will this be different? For starters, Bo Pelini hadn’t emasculated his best player on national television before the first game and said star player wasn’t hurt. Secondly, Jake Locker is now healthy. Thirdly, Washington hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2002, which is remarkable for such a legendary pac-10 program. If this were a regular season game and Nebraska had something tangible to play for, they would win. Nebraska, instead, is in disarray, dealing with injuries and trying to overcome a bad loss in the Big XII title game in which they had the game in hand only to blow it. In the end, we have one of the extreme differences in motivation for the whole bowl season – Washington is thrilled to play in a bowl game with an opportunity to avenge an awful loss while Nebraska would like to be anywhere else playing anyone else.

Clemson -4.5 over USF
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, noon, ESPN
How’s this for an endorsement of UConn – I’m picking Clemson because USF couldn’t beat UConn. If you watched the UConn/USF game, first, my apologies. But if you did, you saw a UConn team that could not do anything offensively. I mean quite literally, they were unable to move the ball forward. Yet, for the fourth time this season, USF lost to a team that scored less than 20 points. If I haven’t made it clear, USF HAS A TERRIBLE OFFENSE. Clemson isn’t a great offensive team but they only need to get to 21 to cover. They’ll get to 21. Fun fact: the last time USF played in this game, they lost 14-0. Ugh.

Notre Dame +3 over Miami, Fla.
Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
The perfect bowl matchup. A renewal of a classic rivalry. A beautiful setting in El Paso. A sold-out, frenzied crowd. The timeless CBS college football theme song. It’ll feel like a big time bowl game. Unfortunately, the only thing missing will be the big time teams. As is, Miami is the more talented team but one with serious quarterback issues. Also, their last game was a terrible loss to the USF team who, as I mentioned above, is severely limited offensively. Notre Dame was a lot of things this year but they were always able to move the ball. Even without its starting QB, WR, TE and RB, they were able to put up a lot of points down the stretch in a key three-game winning streak that saved the season. Brian Kelly has the Irish moving in the right direction and a win over Miami would seal the deal. For Miami, their motivation is nil – they’re playing for an interim coach while the next coach lurks in the shadows, learning his team. Miami is a better team but Notre Dame will play better.

Georgia -6.5 over UCF
Liberty Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
I was tempted to make this my best pick but I’m never quite sure if A.J. Green will try to sell another article of game-worn clothing for a quick buck. I guess now that the NFL millions are closer in view, he’ll refrain until afterwards. UCF had a very good season and is ranked, but they’re not even in Georgia’s league. If you watched UCF this year, you saw a scrappy team with some young talent that could be poised for a huge 2011. You also saw very weak Conference USA competition and a breeze in the Conference USA title game when SMU failed to show up. Georgia played one of the nation’s toughest schedule and went toe to toe with Auburn for three quarters. I don’t think UCF would last one quarter against Auburn. Georgia played great in another seemingly meaningless bowl game last year in the Independence Bowl so I fully expect them to show up ready to play this year.

Florida State +3 over South Carolina
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Steve Spurrier versus Florida State conjures up some great memories, even if it’s not quite the same without Bobby Bowden on the other side. And I think Spurrier will be thinking it’s a lot harder without Bowden there since Jimbo Fisher has infused the Seminoles with energy for the first time since 2000. South Carolina was demoralized in its loss to Auburn in the SEC title game and you have to wonder about their state of mind after that. Both teams want to win this game, but Carolina comes in on a down note while Florida State, despite losing to Virginia Tech, is encourage by its late season performance. Florida State knows that the state of Florida is there for the taking and it starts with a win here.

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Bowl Picks Part I: The Undercard

2010-12-17T14:39:00.000-05:00

Bowl Picks Part II: Bowl Week

Bowl Picks Part III: New Year's Bowls

Last week: 7-4
Best pick: 10-3
Final Regular Season Record: 107-94-3

Last week’s Worst Pick: Picking South Carolina to cover against Auburn and then proclaiming they would win the game outright was not one of my finer moments during the season. But thanks to a wonderful final two weeks, I was able to shoot past .500 and end up with a pretty respectable record against the spread for how many games I pick.

And now it’s time for the most wonderful time of year – bowl season! I know a lot of people mock the bowls but there are still millions who watch and some, like myself, who just can’t get enough. Starting Saturday, there will be an NFL or college football game on every night until Jan. 10, save for one rogue Wednesday (Damn you, January 5th!).

I will be heading out on a family vacation over the holidays, so I’m going to get these picks out a little early to make sure I can be held accountable. We’ll divide the bowls into three groups – the undercard, Bowl Week, and the New Year’s bowls. The BCS title game will get special treatment the day of.

And before I get started, I would like to point out the stupidity of ESPN claiming Dec. 18th to Jan. 1st as the official Bowl Week. Don’t besmirch the good name of Bowl Week. Games before Christmas are not part of Bowl Week. You know that ESPN. C’mon man.

BYU -11.5 over UTEP
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
The bowl season kicks off in the most mediocre way possible – two 6-6 teams playing a game in New Mexico. Does it get much better than this? Oh yeah, it gets a lot better than this. Whatever, I’ll be watching because I like watching football when it’s too cold to go outside. UTEP is definitely far more excited to be here but that doesn’t mean BYU isn’t going to show up. Remember, BYU started this season off atrociously and just making a bowl is a pretty remarkable accomplishment. The Cougars are also off to independent status next year and I’m thinking they use this as a springboard. Also, UTEP is terrible.

Fresno State +1 over Northern Illinois
Humanitarian Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
If you watched MAC title game, you obviously had a pretty low key Friday night like I did that night. But if you watched it, you saw a superior Northern Illinois team completely give away the conference championship to Miami, Ohio on a final drive that was out of a movie, that’s how ridiculous it was. Then, the Huskies lose their coach to Minnesota. And on top of all that, they fall out of the Top 25 and end up in Boise. To make matters worse, Fresno State is a far superior team athletically. Most people only remember Fresno’s 51-0 destruction at the hands of Boise State. This is also a team that manhandled Cincinnati and beat Illinois. They may not be thrilled to be heading back to Boise but Pat Hill has a history of getting his teams to play hard in bowl games. That’s all they’ll need to win.

Troy -2 over Ohio
New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 8 p.m., ESPN
Last impressions mean a lot to me. On the Friday after Thanksgiving, Ohio just had to beat woeful Kent State to win their MAC division. They lost in pathetic fashion, barely putting up a fight against a team that was so poor, its coach had already been fired. Troy had its typical season – getting annihilated by Top 25 programs for paychecks in the nonconference and winning the Sun Belt conference. Yes, they shared it this year but again, they remain the best Sun Belt program. They have also been very successful in bowls and, for a Sun Belt team, their fans travel well. I don’t think Ohio has enough offense to keep pace.

Louisville -3 over Southern Miss
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
The first two years of this bowl game have been the same – Big East team comes out unmotivated and waxes an inferior Conference USA team. Here, the script is flipped. Louisville is seriously motivated because it’s playing in its first bowl since the 2007 Orange Bowl. Even better, the school actually lobbied for this game because it recruits Florida heavily and the other possible Big East bowl games conflicted with the Louisville/Kentucky basketball game on New Year’s Eve. Southern Miss is motivated to beat a BCS conference team and they had a good season, going 8-4. Louisville, though, is the better team despite the poorer record. I have my eye on this as my BEST PICK of the bowl undercard, as I believe Louisville is a program on the rise. And programs on the rise win bowl games like this.

Boise State -17 over Utah
Las Vegas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Utah doesn’t have its starting quarterback. Utah is already dreaming about the Pac-12. Boise State is ticked off. Boise State thinks it got a raw deal by playing yet another non-BCS team in a bowl game. Boise State is thinking the same thing it was at last year’s Fiesta Bowl – this is the first game of next season’s title run. Boise State is going to make a statement, in a big way, and get the hype going for next year’s opener against Georgia in the Georgia Dome. Boise also has a number of seniors who have taken the program from nationally respected to national title contenders – they will want to send them out in grand style.

Navy +5 over San Diego State
Poinsettia Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
This was one of the picks that I went back and forth on the most because I can’t get a feel for how the game is going play out. Both teams are very good with the ability to play great. Both teams are excited to be here. Both teams are highly motivated to win. The game will likely set an attendance record for the bowl, so it should be a charged atmosphere. In the end, I wussed out with my pick. Why? Because I don’t know who is going to win, I just know that it’s going to be close. So when it doubt, take the points and hope it’s decided by a field. It just feels like a 35-31 or 31-28 game one way or the other. Navy is the more experience bowl team with a legend at QB in Ricky Dobbs playing his final game. I believe that pushes Navy over the top late.

Tulsa +10.5 over Hawaii
Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
One of the most anticipated bowls, for me, of the entire 35-game slate. The Hawaii Bowl has provided some of the most entertaining games in recent memory, including Chris Johnson’s coming out party against Boise State in 2007 and the triple overtime, fight-marred game between Houston and Hawaii in 2003. I’m thinking we see another crazy shootout that doesn’t end until about the time Santa is descending down your chimney. I know Hawaii is much better at home but that success has not always translated into the Hawaii Bowl. Tulsa has just as many weapons as Hawaii and I would like them outright. As is, getting 10.5 points feels like stealing and I’ll take Tulsa and run.

Toledo -1.5 over Florida International
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Sunday, Dec. 26, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
If any team got a raw deal in this year’s bowl season, it’s Florida International. They played a murderous nonconference slate, including tough losses to Rutgers (who they outplayed) and Texas A&M (who they should’ve beat). But since they lost those games, the 6-6 record impresses nobody, so they get shuffled off to Detroit for the program’s first ever bowl, as opposed to closer locales in New Orleans and Mobile, Ala. I have a bad feeling FIU comes out flat while Toledo, frankly, is thrilled to be in any bowl since the only two bowl-eligible teams that aren’t bowling came from the MAC. Toledo uses the good fortune as motivation and, spurred on by a home field advantage, take care of FIU.

Air Force -3 over Georgia Tech
Independence Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
What’s the over/under on the time of game? 2:30? 2:15? 2 hours flat? There won’t be a lot of passing as both teams run the old-school triple option. The huge difference here is that Air Force has its starting QB and Joshua Nesbitt is highly unlikely for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were one of the season’s biggest disappointments and their one huge advantage – the novelty of the option – is rendered useless against Air Force. The Falcons were ranked early in the season, played Oklahoma very tough in Norman and, frankly, are just a better team. If the better team is motivated in a bowl game, they usually win. That’s what you’ll see here.

More picks to come...

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The Playoff Myth: Why The BCS Is Here To Stay

2010-12-17T10:53:00.000-05:00

A college football playoff will never ever happen. Ever.

Yet, thanks to Mark Cuban opening his mouth this week, the call for a college football playoff has been renewed. Just like it was last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. I wish I could pinpoint when a college football playoff became a talking point but for at least the past 20 years, college football fans have spent their December break from football clamoring for a playoff.

If it hasn’t happened yet, what makes people think it’s going to happen now?

I must admit I’m guilty of jumping into the scenario business since earlier this week I wrote an entire column dedicated to a plus-one model after moving the bowls back to their traditional tie-ins. In my opinion, that’s a realistic solution since it has been proven time and time again that the people in charge of college football – university presidents – do not want a playoff system.

The scenarios range from the absurd – 16 teams, using bowls – to the certainly plausible, whether it’s 16 teams on campus or 4 teams using the current bowl structure. The bottom line is that no scenario is going to be accepted if it’s a playoff. The playoff system that makes the most sense, the four-team plus-one, was rejected by college presidents in 2008. If that’s not happening, then nothing’s going to happen.

But why? Let’s review the “myths” about the bowls and the playoffs.

The BCS is hurting college football

If there was ever an example of the old adage, “Any publicity is good publicity,” it’s the BCS. Almost instantly after its creation, the BCS became a punching bag and easy target for sportswriters and fans alike. Put the BCS in a book title and you sell thousands upon thousands of copies. You write a column bashing the BCS, and you’ll receiving hundreds of comments from college football fans commending you on your opinion.

Unfortunately, the exact opposite is true of the BCS. Prior to the BCS, college football was a purely regional sport. Even as the sport’s power brokers realized there was a huge audience for college football, fans didn’t care about much outside of their own conference. Big Ten fans couldn’t care less about Alabama. SEC fans weren’t chanting their conference’s name after big nonconference and bowl victories. You played to win your conference. If you could win a national title, that was a nice bonus.

The BCS system, for the first time, nationalized college football. This year, fans of the SEC were glued into Oregon games and they bizarrely became the staunchest dissenters to Boise State’s run. The entire nation tuned in to see Auburn/Alabama. While much has been made about college football’s ratings declining this year, it comes with two huge caveats. For one, the networks are airing far more college football than they did in the past and certainly more than last year. And second, college football’s regular season ratings absolutely dwarf the ratings for all other sports.

Since ESPN acquired the NBA rights in 2002, its highest-rated regular season game was a Lakers/Rockets game in 2003 that drew 4.8 million viewers. On Labor Day night, Boise State/Virginia Tech drew 9.9 million viewers. On Sept. 11, at noon Saturday, Georgia/South Carolina drew 3.5 million viewers on ESPN2. Only four NBA regular season games on ESPN can claim a better number in nine seasons.

The BCS is hurting the non-BCS schools

This is quite possibly the stupidest argument against the BCS. In 1998, Tulane went undefeated, played in the Liberty Bowl and received almost zero publicity. In 1999, Marshall went undefeated and finished its season playing in the Motor City Bowl at 1:30 p.m. on weekday afternoon. The programs received little to no bump from their undefeated seasons because, frankly, no one cared.

Fast forward to 2010. Boise State, TCU and Utah all spent time in the top five. Utah and TCU were able to use their success to jump to bigger leagues. Boise State became the most talked about team in the country, drawing huge television audiences, including an absurd 4+ million for its game against Nevada that ended around 2 a.m. on the East Coast. Why the jump in interest? Because the BCS opened access up. TCU is playing in the Rose Bowl. Let that sink in – a team from the Mountain West Conference is playing in the Rose Bowl. And this hurts them how, exactly?

The conferences are losing money on the bowl system

There is no doubt there are flaws with the current bowl system, namely the absurd ticket requirements some schools must make in playing in bowls. The BCS is the worst offender, since schools sell tickets at face value while ticket factories like StubHub are selling them for far less. There are times when schools take a bath, no doubt.

But the athletic departments at universities have been largely unconcerned with struggling to profit off the bowl system. Why? Because they don’t make their money from the postseason. They make their money from the regular season. The Big Ten just received $140 million over six years from Fox for its championship game – do you think they want to mess with that annual $23 million check? The SEC is receiving billions – yes billions – from CBS and ESPN for regular season college football. Do you think the conference is in a hurry to mess with that?

College football makes a lot of money in its current system. A lot has been made about the quotes from conference commissioners to Congress about a playoff system making “more money” than the current system. That is undoubtedly true but the key word is “more.” The conferences, particularly behemoths like the Big Ten, SEC and Pac-12, are making money hand over fist already. There’s little impetus for the conferences to rip up a system that is making them plenty of money as is.

A playoff would crown a true national champion

For some reason, American sports fans have been conditioned to believe playoffs are the only way to crown a true champion, even though the exact opposite is quite true. The playoffs reward teams that get hot at the end of the year. I’m not saying this is bad, but the notion that a playoff crowns a more deserving champion is absurd. You can say it’s more exciting, more finite or more interesting, but you can’t say more deserving.

Look at soccer. The most popular sports league in the world is the English Premier League. They don’t have a playoff. They don’t have a postseason. Each team plays 38 games – twice against the other 19 teams. At the end of the year, the team with the best record is the champion. That, my friends, is a true and deserving champion. Next to that, college football crowing a champion with one “playoff” game is as close as it gets. The English Premier League seems to be doing just fine. So does college football.

A playoff would eliminate controversy

I read about a four-team proposal to crown this year’s national champion. In one semifinal, it would be undefeated Oregon against undefeated TCU. I love it. In the other, it would be #1 undefeated Auburn against #4, 11-1 Stanford. So let’s see, who would be upset with that? Do you think the Big Ten, with its trio of 11-1 teams, might cause a bit of a stink? Last year, there were five undefeated teams – how does five fit into four? About as well as three does.

If we go to 16 teams, the controversy remains. Does the 6-6 Sun Belt champion get a playoff spot over 9-3 Alabama? If they don’t, why does the Sun Belt keep playing football? What does a #1 seed get you? A second-round matchup against Arkansas? How is that fair?

It’s my opinion that a playoff would only increase controversy. Think about it – instead of having one or two teams with gripes, you increase the number tenfold. Few teams can claim they are #1 or #2. A whole lot more teams can make a case for #4. And I can think of about 25 teams who could claim to be #16. It’s a can of worms the college presidents don’t want to open and they’ve made that clear.

Congress could force a playoff

An absolute and complete non-starter. President Obama and other legislators looking to get some publicity can stand up and say they want a playoff, but the response from college presidents would be predictable. They’ve already stated what they would do – the bowls would go back to the old system and that would be that. As Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney so eloquently stated last week – the big conferences have opened up access willingly, but they don’t have to keep doing so.

Fans are outraged there is not a playoff

The final myth is arguably the most important. It has been painted that college football fans are outraged with the BCS and strongly believe the sport needs a playoff. It’s true, but only to a degree. Fans are unhappy there isn’t a playoff but they aren’t outraged. If they were, then 30+ million people wouldn’t have tuned in for Alabama/Texas last year, making it the year’s most-watched non-NFL sporting event. If they hated bowls so much, than last year’s Alamo Bowl – featuring Texas Tech and a 6-6 Michigan State team – wouldn’t have been ESPN’s most-watched bowl…ever.

And therein lies the fallacy of claiming a playoff is needed. A playoff is wanted. Fans are still going to games, they’re still buying merchandise and they’re still tuning into 35 bowl games in greater numbers than ever.

Until people stop watching and purchasing tickets, a playoff remains a desire. We won’t see a playoff until fans boycott the current system. I don’t see that happening in my lifetime. Do you?

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Epic Big Ten Fail, Or Why The SEC Still Rules College Football

2010-12-15T14:51:00.000-05:00

In 1992, the SEC had nothing to go on. They were entering unchartered territory. With the additions of South Carolina and Arkansas, the conference had officially become the country’s first super conference. They were going to host the first college football conference championship game. It must have been an exciting time in the SEC offices. It must have also been frightening.

How the heck do we split these teams up?

I don’t know how it happened or what else they came up with but the SEC came up with the absolutely perfect solution. They split their conference along geographically lines, setting up an East and West division. To maintain the football rivalries that had defined the conference for a century, they allowed each team to have one rival from the other division that they would play every year. It preserved rivals like Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia and LSU/Florida that would have infuriated locals if they had been destroyed.

As we stand here in 2010, the SEC is the gold standard in college football and I don’t think you give enough credit to the brilliance of the division splits. Every college football fan knows which teams are in which divisions. They know that Tennessee, Florida and Georgia battle in the East while Auburn, Alabama and LSU battle it out in the West. It makes sense. It’s easy to follow. There’s no confusion.

In fact, the NFL realized the error of their own divisions following expansion – Atlanta in the NFC West, Tampa Bay in the NFC Central, etc. – and realigned the divisions so they made sense geographically. Despite the current atrocity that is the NFC West, no one has ever complained that the NFL’s division didn’t make sense.

The SEC, nearly two decades ago without a map to follow, stumbled upon the key to a divisional setup – geographic concerns meshed with the traditional rivalries. The SEC got it right. And no one since has.

The Big XII came to closest, by splitting its conference between the North, the old Big 8 schools, and the South, the former SWC schools with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, they erred from the beginning but not mandating Oklahoma and Nebraska play every year. In doing so, they destroyed the rivalry that had built the Big 8 and made the Texas/Oklahoma game the conference’s defining rivalry. The constant rotation of the three inter-divisional matchups only further split the divisions apart, creating such a divide that Nebraska and Colorado eventually took their ball and left.

The next super conference to step up to the plate was the ACC, which managed to mess up the divisional split even worse. Those in charge of the ACC, blinded by money, divided the divisions with literally one goal in mind – get Miami to play Florida State in the conference championship game. They ignored rivalries, geography and, quite frankly, common sense.

It’s now the common punch line – try to name who plays in the ACC Coastal division. Or the Atlantic division. It’s practically impossible unless you’re a fan of an ACC school. It made no sense considering the North/South split would’ve been perfect. You have four southern schools – Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech – that have all enjoyed solid rivalries with each other. You have four northern schools – Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College and Maryland – that are very similar in nature. Split up the four North Carolina schools however you want and, volia, two divisions.

Did that happen? Of course not. Along with the conference’s brain dead decision to have the first few title games in Florida, the title game devolved into a joke. Will anyone forget the painful blimp shots of empty stadiums as Virginia Tech and Boston College – two schools hundreds upon hundreds of miles from Florida – playing what looked like a high school game? This year’s ACC title game in Charlotte finally felt like a real title game – a southern Florida State team playing a northern Virginia Tech team somewhere in the middle. I have to admit I was hoping for the first Florida State/Miami title game to take place in Charlotte but there’s still time.

This brings us to the next conference to come up with divisional splits, and the Pac-12 came close to getting it right. They tried to go north/south but Utah and Colorado, in the South division, are further north on the map than Stanford and California, in the North division. It actually led to a pretty funny Pac-12 map showing Utah and Colorado about 300 miles to the south of where they’re actually located.

The California schools needed to be kept together but commissioner Larry Scott, receiving a lesson in university politics, caved in and gave the Oregon and Washington schools Stanford and Cal. But it’s only created another political issue – namely that the California schools need to play each other every year in football. The nine-game conference schedule will help and it may end up only being a minor issue down the line. Still, it wasn’t perfect.

Of course, nothing compares to the incredible epic fail the Big Ten dropped on the college football world earlier this week. The conference did literally everything wrong – splitting up traditional rivals, coming up with nonsensical names and putting far too much weight on the past success of the programs.

The worst part is that the Big Ten had its divisions perfectly laid out for them thanks to the United States map. The East would’ve been led by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State with Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue rounding it out. The West would’ve been led by Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska with Minnesota, Northwestern and Illinois. The traditional year-end matchups would’ve be retained without fear of a rematch a week later. All important trophy games, with the exception of the Little Brown Jug between Minnesota and Michigan, would’ve remained intact. In short, it made too much sense.

So why did the Big Ten make such a horrific decision to split the conference along some sort of competition line? Because, like the ACC, it’s blinded by the hope of having a Michigan/Ohio State title game. Did Fox fork over a ton of money for the Big Ten championship game to get Michigan/Ohio State? Wouldn’t Nebraska/Ohio State have been just as appealing? Wouldn’t Iowa/Penn State for the title get people going?

The line from the Big Ten was how they wanted Michigan and Ohio State to keep playing for the Rose Bowl, even though it’s not 1960 and it’s not the Big Two anymore. And how would playing for a divisional title lessen the rivalry’s impact at all? Quite the opposite, wouldn’t it increase it? Has Auburn/Alabama suffered? Florida/Tennessee? Texas/Oklahoma?

Look to the NFL, does the Pats/Colts rivalry mean any less because they don’t play in the Super Bowl. Did the 49ers/Cowboys playoff games in the 1990s somehow lose something because it wasn’t the Super Bowl? Of course not.

If the stupidity ended there, that would’ve been one thing. The Big Ten decided to actually compound its errors by naming its divisions the Leaders and the Legends. Sometimes, even a wordsmith such as I has no words. What do you say when confronting with tremendous stupidity?

The Big Ten will defend their divisions to death, much like the ACC has unsuccessfully. Though the ACC must be thrilled – their punch line gets replaced by poor souls trying to name the members of the Legends Division.

When the Big Ten convenes next December for its conference title game – indoors, not even at Solider Field where it should’ve been played – the conference will complete its journey toward big bucks and football domination.

The problem is, the SEC already did that and they figured it out 18 years ago. Yet again, the Big Ten is hopelessly chasing its enemy to the south.

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The 2010 Ranking of the Bowls

2010-12-13T16:34:00.000-05:00

There are two truisms about bowl season. 1) There are way too many bowls. 2) You’re probably going to end up watching way too many of them anyway.

I’m here to help. Let’s look at the games to set aside for family time…and which games necessitate an appointment with your favorite couch or recliner.

35) GoDaddy.com Bowl
Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
Miami, Ohio (9-4) vs. Middle Tennessee State (6-6)
It’s all bout luck with the lower bowl games. Last year, this game, then known as the GMAC Bowl, brought together Sun Belt champion Troy and MAC champion Central Michigan. What resulted was a fantastic game between two very solid, nearly Top 25 non-AQ football programs. It was, in a word, awesome. This year? Uh, not so much. There is a good story on one side as Miami, Ohio has rebounded from a 1-11 year in 2009 to MAC champions this year. On the other side, Middle Tennessee would’ve been far better off if its star QB, Dwight Dasher, wasn’t suspended for the first four games. The timing of the game, in between the BCS games and the title game, doesn’t help.

34) Little Ceaser’s Pizza Bowl
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
FIU (6-6) vs. Toledo (8-4)
Speaking of timing not helping a game, this one goes up against the NFL Sunday Night game of the week and is being played one day after Christmas. That’s a tough sell for me to watch it and they’re expecting people to show up and pay to watch it? I’m not seeing that. Toledo was probably the MAC’s fifth-best team but got the bowl bid over Temple since it’s closer to Detroit and likely to bring at least a couple fans with them, as opposed to Temple bringing zero. As for FIU, there’s not too much to say other than they won the Sun Belt. And they had Rutgers on the ropes. But Rutgers is an awful team and they were able to beat FIU in FIU’s stadium.

33) BBVA Compass Bowl
Jan. 8, Noon, ESPN
Kentucky (6-6) vs. Pitt (7-5)
We’ve got another contender for worst time slot. It’s the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs. But you need something to kill time until the Wild Card games, right? I guess you could watch this game if you really, really wanted to put off taking down the Christmas decorations. Kentucky actually beat South Carolina and took #1 Auburn to the final seconds, so it’s a little surprising how poorly they ended their season. Pitt was such a disappointment, they just kicked their coach to the curb. How do you know there’s too many bowls? When a team makes a bowl and its coach gets fired. Oh, excuse me, I’m being told Wannstedt “retired” or “resigned” or whatever word they use when a coach gets fired and they don’t want to say, “fired.”

32) TicketCity Bowl
Jan. 1, Noon, ESPNU
Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Northwestern (7-5)
Just because the Cotton Bowl isn’t using the Cotton Bowl stadium anymore doesn’t mean you need to a put a game there on New Year’s Day. Especially when the best you can produce is the 8th best team from the Big XII and the 8th best team from the Big Ten. And that 8th best Big Ten team doesn’t even have its best player. Wasn’t one of the reasons the Cotton Bowl moved to the new Cowboys Stadium was the terribly unpredictable Dallas weather in January? The scary thing is that if Texas had won its last game, it probably would’ve end up here and the game would’ve sold 80,000+ tickets. But they didn’t. At the very least, I guess this is something to watch until the more interesting New Year’s Day games begin at 1 p.m.

31) Holiday Bowl
Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Washington (6-6) vs. #18 Nebraska (10-3)
The first annual “Big XII F U Bowl” starring Nebraska and former #1 draft pick Jake Locker. We’ll get into the details when we get to the Insight Bowl but, needless to say, this isn’t where Nebraska hoped to be. For Washington, just playing in a bowl for the first time since 2002 is cause for celebration and a chance to atone for the season’s worst loss isn’t a bad thing. Particularly for Locker, who went 4 for 200, I believe, against Nebraska. Or 4-20, something like that. The Holiday Bowl just got the raw deal since the Pac-10 got two teams in the BCS for the first time since 2000 and USC isn’t bowl eligible. Yet, if Washington had lost its season finale, this game would’ve been, according to reports, Notre Dame vs. Nebraska. So close, yet so far away.

30) Meineke Car Care Bowl
Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN
Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)
Clemson fans were so enthused about playing in this bowl game that the bowl’s director literally had to tell Clemson fans, “Stop!” Of course, it worked, and Clemson was picked for this game over several more deserving ACC teams, particularly 8-4 Maryland. The Big East stunk up the joint this year and South Florida is a perfect example of that, considering they lost FOUR times while giving up less than 20 points. Do you know hard that is? The level of offensive ineptitude is off the charts. No wonder beating Miami was the end of Randy Shannon. As for this game, it’s something to do if you have New Year’s Eve day off, which most people should since New Year’s Day is a Saturday. It’s a Friday afternoon and football’s on…life could be worse.

29) New Mexico Bowl
Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
UTEP (6-6) vs. BYU (6-6)
This game benefits greatly from the “first bowl of the year” bump. Though it meant a lot more a few years ago, when we had gone three to four weeks between college football games. With the explosion of Championship Saturday and the move back of Army-Navy….it will have been a grand total of seven days between college football games. Ah, but there was only a couple on last Saturday and that’s not nearly enough. This game also gets a boost from the fact UTEP is actually pretty excited to be here – New Mexico is within a four-hour drive and BYU is an old WAC rival. BYU likely isn’t as excited but, after their horrific start, any bowl has to feel good.

28) Military Bowl
Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
Quite simply, Maryland doesn’t want to be here. Practically the whole school was campaigning and begging to go anywhere else but, when you can't fill up your own stadium, bowls don’t really want you. There’s been some talk of Maryland fans “boycotting” the game, followed by jokes about Maryland fans who have basically boycotted the whole season anyway. The interest in this game comes strictly from East Carolina, who wish they were in the ACC and have already sold reportedly 10,000 tickets to this nothing game. Add in the fact ECU desperately likes beating ACC teams, has a crazy offense and refuses to play defense and you could have a game that’s entertaining, if nothing else.

27) New Orleans Bowl
Dec. 18, 9 p.m., ESPN
Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5)
There are some intriguing things to watch here, if you ignore the fact Ohio blew its chance at a MAC title to Kent State or that Troy lost to South Carolina by about 50 last month. For starters, Ohio is coached by former Nebraska Frank Solich and he’s been there a surprisingly long time. And Troy is almost always the Sun Belt’s best team, who played a great bowl game against a MAC team last year. Other than that – these are just two decent teams who would love a bowl victory. I like bowl games where the teams are equally matched and both motivated. It’ll be a close, good game. I hope. I have no plans Saturday night.

26) Music City Bowl
Dec. 30, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
One thing this game will have going for it in spades is atmosphere as the game is already a legit sellout, thanks mainly to wacky Tennessee fans ready to watch its team play a home-state bowl game for the first time…ever? I’d have to look that up. I’m sure they’ve played in a Liberty Bowl at some point. There’s also a nice juicy subplot as these two teams were supposed to start a regular season but the series was cancelled, with the reason varying depending on who you ask. And this could be North Carolina’s last bowl game for a long, long time depending on the NCAA investigation into the agents, academic cheating and John Blake scandal that surrounded the team in August and September.

25) Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Arizona (7-5) vs. #14 Oklahoma State (10-2)
The former Holiday Bowl matchup – Big XII #3 vs. Pac-10 #2 – doesn’t quite yield the game that it has in the past. Oklahoma State and the Big XII certainly held up their end of the bargain. The top-heavy Pac-10? Not so much. Arizona redefined “finishing poorly” as it limped home with four straight losses to technically finish seventh in the Pac-10. And it was the best available Pac-10 team after the BCS nabbed Oregon and Stanford. Arizona is a good team but hasn’t played like it in a really long time, the first half against Oregon notwithstanding. Oklahoma State should drill Arizona if they decide to show up and play.

24) Armed Forces Bowl
Dec. 30, Noon, ESPN
SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-6)
Based strictly on the quality of play, this game may have ranked in the bottom three. But bowl games aren’t always about how good the game is. It’s about the atmosphere. It’s about the backstory. It’s about the scene. There will be few scenes as interesting and poignant as Army taking the field to play its first bowl game since 1996. And to add to the drama, the game will be played in SMU’s home stadium – the game had been played in TCU’s recently blowed up stadium – and SMU will be playing in its second straight bowl game after a quarter century of futility following the infamous Death Penalty. The game may stink, the stories are incredible. When else are you going watch a football game Thursday at noon other than Thanksgiving anyway?

23) Texas Bowl
Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6)
Another game that gets a huge boost from a wonderful story – Baylor’s first bowl game since 1994. From what I’ve read online, the game is either a sellout or very close to a sellout as every Baylor alum within 200 miles of Houston is apparently descending on the bowl game. Baylor also boasts one of college football’s most exciting players, QB Robert Griffin, who is worth the price of admission alone and is up there with Pat White as the most exciting opposing players I’ve seen at UConn. I always give the nod to Griffin since UConn beat Baylor twice and Pat White was unbeatable. Illinois is just sort of there. Here’s a fun fact – this is Illinois first non-BCS bowl since the 1990s. Their last two bowl games? The 2002 Sugar Bowl and the 2008 Rose Bowl.

22) Humanitarian Bowl
Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Fresno State (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
This game would rank higher if I knew Fresno State was excited to play this game, which is a product of Northern Illinois absolutely giving away the MAC title game against Miami, Ohio. If NIU had held on, they’d be 11-2, definitely ranked and Fresno State would definitely show up. As is, they’re heading back to Boise to face an unranked MAC team. Not to mention, Minnesota just hired away NIU’s Jerry Kill to be their coach. Still, this game is the most interesting on the first Saturday of bowl season, there’s always a possibility for crazy weather in Boise and the field’s blue. And really, we should support a bowl game that is practically ancient, having been around for more than a decade. They said it wouldn’t last…

21) Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
Southern Miss (8-4) vs. Louisville (6-6)
A game that is actually far better than the records indicate, particularly because Louisville is a dramatically improved team from last year. If Louisville had opened with cupcakes to start the season as opposed to traditional rival Kentucky and a road trip to Oregon State, they might be 8-4. They absolutely destroyed Rutgers in the season finale to become bowl eligible and, thanks to coach Charlie Strong, has the look of a team ready to explode in 2011. As for Southern Miss, they are trying to recapture some of their former magic that made it a household name in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and beating a BCS conference team would be a good way to start doing that.

20) Independence Bowl
Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4)
Let’s be honest, this game shouldn’t rank this high. A very, very mediocre ACC team against the fourth-best team from the Mountain West. If they ran normal offenses, I’m not even sure I’d pay attention. But these teams don’t run normal offenses – they both run the old-school triple option. What’s the over/under on passes? 10? 15? Everything about this bowl screams, “1980!” First, we have the offense that is only run by four teams in the country yet was run by just about everyone 30 years ago. And we’re at the Independence Bowl, the original bowl punchline when it was sponsored by Poulan Weed Eater. There are still sportswriting hacks out there looking for bowl jokes that still go back to the Poulan Weed Eater lines. That’s a quality sponsorship – people are still talking about it years after.

19) Insight Bowl
Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
#12 Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
A game that is rapidly losing my interest thanks to Iowa suspending practically their entire team as chaos is reigning in Iowa City, much like the situation Michigan State went through last year prior to its bowl. So I have no idea how Iowa will come out or, to be blunt, if they give a shit. This game should’ve been Iowa vs. Nebraska and everyone knows it. But the Big XII obviously stepped in to prevent a Big Ten preview. The bowl officials have denied this but what other explanation is there? Last year, the Insight Bowl passed over Missouri for Iowa State. Iowa State! And now Missouri is more attractive than a Nebraska fanbase that travels in droves and hasn’t been to Arizona for a bowl game in a decade? Please. Wouldn’t have Iowa/Nebraska sold out the place? This matchup hurts my brain, let’s move on.

18) Pinstripe Bowl
Dec. 30, 3 p.m., ESPN
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
We have some things to work with here. We have Kansas State’s tremendous running back Darren Thomas, an absolute beast who may be the best running back in college football and possibly the best NFL running back prospect. We have Syracuse playing in its first bowl game since 2004, as they finally climb out from under the Greg Robinson debacle rock. And we have Yankee Stadium hosting its first bowl game ever. Will it snow? Will people show up? Is this bowl game a brilliant idea – New York is beautiful during the holidays – or a massive misstep for the Big East? It’ll be interesting, you have to give the game that.

17) Liberty Bowl
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
#25 UCF (10-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
Georgia is not a 6-6 team and they finished the year 5-2 to prove so. No, they weren’t an elite Georgia team but they weren’t a 6-6 outfit either. They may not be thrilled to play a Conference USA team but UCF is ranked and looking to make a big statement about the quality of their own program. Coach George O’Leary also has a little history with the Bulldogs, having coached against them several times when he was at Georgia Tech. UCF will also look to have a better experience at the Liberty Bowl than in 2007, when they showed up to be greeted by about 50,000 Mississippi State fans and lost one of the uglier bowl games in recent memories. A win here would definitely erase those memories.

16) Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Boston College (7-5) vs. #15 Nevada (12-1)
It’s always fun to see a big-time non-AQ school line up against one of the “big boys,” especially when that big boy is a hopelessly mediocre Boston College outfit void of an offense. It really speaks to how bad the ACC was this year that Boston College made it to seven wins. Trust me, if you’ve seen one Boston College game this year, you know what I’m talking about. So why does this game rank so high? For starters, it’s the second to last college football game of the season, so you need to get that last football fix before it goes away. Nevada is reportedly bringing upwards of 20,000 fans with them as the game will serve as a celebration of the school’s most successful senior class in program history. They will go out in a big way and further prove that Boise State was a lot better than they will ever be given credit for, because the WAC was better than the ACC and Big East in 2010.

15) Outback Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)
I wasn’t really excited about this game when the matchup was announced, considering how poorly Florida played down the stretch and how Penn State is nothing but a young team with an eye on 2011. There’s still the novelty, of course, of these two historic college football programs going head to head. But clearly, the sudden departure of Urban Meyer drives the interest in this game way up. What frame of mind will Florida be in? Will they be all in to send Meyer out with a win? Will they have their eyes locked in on the new coach and the future of the program? And for Penn State, how do all of its young players deal with a spotlight that is suddenly a lot brighter than it was a week ago? If nothing else, we’re going to get at least one fantastic quote from JoePa, who always brings his A material to bowl press conferences.

14) Poinsettia Bowl
Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Navy (9-3) vs. San Diego State (8-4)
A dream matchup for the Poinsettia Bowl, which will almost certainly set an attendance record for the young bowl with Navy in one of the country’s biggest Navy towns against the hometown team returning to a bowl for the first time in a long time. To make things even better, these are two really, really good football teams. Navy got off to a slow start, particularly losing the opener to Maryland, but rebounded very nicely, including a third win over Notre Dame in four years. San Diego State didn’t lose a game by more than a touchdown all year and gave #3 TCU easily its toughest battle of the year. The game got an additional boost from SDSU coach Brady Hoke, a very hot coaching commoditiy, staying with the Aztecs for its big bowl game.

13) Champs Sports Bowl
Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
#22 West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
The interest in the game has skyrocketed in the past 24 hours, as crazy rumors are swirling around the West Virginia program about head coach Bill Stewart. I’ve read some reports saying he’s done after the bowl game. I’ve read others that say he’s only done if they lose the bowl game. And I’ve read others that say nothing’s up and he’ll be around regardless in 2011. West Virginia is arguably the country’s biggest underachievers as they were clearly the Big East’s best team but gave away its two conference losses, almost quite literally, to Syracuse and UConn thanks to an abundance of turnovers. NC State had a moderately successful year but laid a giant stinkbomb in its regular season finale when it lost to Maryland with a spot in the ACC title game on the line with a win. I could see NC State out to redeem itself.

12) Chick-fil-a Bowl
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
#23 Florida State (9-4) vs. #20 South Carolina (9-4)
It’s the Loser Bowl! Okay, so maybe that’s the most appealing name but it does match the title game losers for the ACC and the SEC. So it’s sort of a measuring stick for the two conferences, right? There’s definitely a lot more pressure on South Carolina, since the drumbeat began as soon as the loss to Auburn was complete that a bowl loss would mean yet another five-loss, mediocre season for the Gamecocks. The win over Alabama seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Heck, the win against Florida seems like it took place two years ago. Florida State, despite an ACC title game loss, beat up on Florida and Miami, won its division and is clearly trending in the right direction under new coach Jimbo Fisher. Both teams are looking to make statements about their programs – I love bowl games like that.

11) Gator Bowl
Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
Michigan (7-5) vs. #21 Mississippi State (8-4)
Strictly from an on-field standpoint, this should be a fascinating game to watch. Michigan has been able to chew up yards against anybody – how will they do against a pretty good SEC defense? Michigan has also been unable to prevent anybody from scoring a significant amount of points – how will they do against a pretty good SEC offense? This game, though, is also more about subplots. Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen is a very hot name, even seeing his name pop up during the short Florida search. Will he be willing to stay in Starkville to build something? On the other sideline, Rich Rodriguez desperately wants to build something at Michigan, but all reports indicate he’s keeping the seat warm for Jim Harbaugh. Would a bowl win change things? Will Michigan finally beat a ranked team again? Or will Mississippi State solidify SEC dominance?

10) Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
#7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. UConn (8-4)
If this was my ranking of games that interest only me, this would be #1 with a bullet and all the other games would be tied for second. But I’m a UConn season ticket holder and I think we’re the only 20,000+ people in the country excited for this game. UConn has more going for it than people give it credit for. I mean, they have a junior DE in Kendall Reyes and a junior stud RB Jordan Todman that are both considered possibilities to leave early from the NFL Draft, so they must have a little talent. Unfortunately, none of that talent is able to complete a pass so UConn is going to be in a bit of trouble if Oklahoma gets it going early. Thankfully, you’ll be able to know within the first 15 minutes if it’s going to be a game or not. If OU goes up 21-0, you can change the channel. If it’s 3-3 and an ugly, defensive struggle – hang with it, you may be witnessing a historic upset.

9) Cotton Bowl
Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
#17 Texas A&M (9-3) vs. #11 LSU (10-2)
Everything about this game is awesome, including the Friday night primetime spot on Fox and the fact that Fox is using the game as basically a test run for its Super Bowl coverage from the same stadium a month later. Throw in how on fire Texas A&M was down the stretch, how good LSU’s defense is and how batshit insane Les Miles usually is, and you have all the ingredients for a wonderful bowl game. The atmosphere won’t be a problem – the game was a sellout about 15 minutes after the matchup was announced and the two schools had a fairly spirited non-conference rivalry about 25 years ago. It’s also the lone Big XII/SEC bowl game, for some odd reason, and will provide a good measuring stick of the relative strength of both conferences. The game will also be a huge springboard into 2011 for the winner, especially Texas A&M because it brings back a whole bunch of the two-deep next year.

8) Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
Miami, Fla. (7-5) vs. Notre Dame (7-5)
Yea, these aren’t the teams that ruled college football in the 1980s and early 1990s. It doesn’t matter. Since the series was discontinued in 1990 at the height of Catholics vs. Convicts, fans of both schools have been clamoring for them to play again. Yes, they’re starting a mini-three game series a couple years down the road but this needs to be an annual rivalry. In lieu of that, a Sun Bowl matchup on CBS sounds about right, doesn’t it? One of the oldest and most traditional bowl games in a city with a large Catholic and Hispanic population. The network that aired its classic matchups getting to roll out its perfect theme music for the only time during bowl season as the familiar U and golden domes run onto to a sun-splashed field. Oh, I’m getting goosebumps just thinking about it. Will the game be great? Does it matter?

7) Las Vegas Bowl
Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
#10 Boise State (11-1) vs. #19 Utah (10-2)
Jesse Palmer accurately summed up what I’m thinking about this game during the Bowl Selection Special a couple weeks ago, when he said the Boise State is out to make a statement and will try to pummel future Pac-12 member Utah to do so. I love it. Boise State, far more than Michigan State, got screwed this year by the system. They played a schedule tougher than Oregon’s in a conference far harder than the TCU played in. They beat Virginia Tech in their part of the country. They took a very good Fresno State team and emasculated them. That ranked Hawaii team? Didn’t stand a chance. It’s not fair that Virginia Tech plays in a BCS bowl after losing to James Madison but Boise gets relegated to Las Vegas (I know, not that bad of a place to be relegated) because of an overtime loss on the road to a Top 10 team. This game gets my interest because I want to see what Boise is capable of and if Utah can match them.

6) Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
#16 Alabama (9-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (11-1)
Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has already pulled off one of the coups of the bowl season, as he has convinced his team that this is a BCS-level bowl and that a loss undoes all the good they did this year. Many teams snubbed from the BCS go into the tank and barely show up for their bowl game. Michigan State is going to show up. Will Alabama? If they had another coach or if the 2009 Sugar Bowl debacle against Utah didn’t happen, I’d say maybe. But I am more than a little confident that Nick Saban is going to have his boys amped and ready to play. So much has been made of Alabama’s NFL talent – wouldn’t they want to showcase their skills one last time in a big way for NFL scouts on one last huge stage?

5) Orange Bowl
Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
#13 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #4 Stanford (11-1)
On the face, a football game between Virginia Tech and Stanford doesn’t exactly elicit the same thoughts that, say, Florida State and USC would. But we have two tremendous teams riding extreme waves of momentum. Virginia Tech was left for dead after the embarrassing loss to James Madison and hasn’t lost since, going scorched Earth on the ACC. Stanford has done the same to every team not named Oregon, including humiliating beatdowns of Notre Dame, Arizona and Cal along the way. Oh, and did I mention that Stanford has the likely #1 NFL pick, graded to be one of the best professional quarterback prospects since Peyton Manning? The only reason this game doesn’t rank higher is that I’m not sure how many people will actually be in attendance – Stanford is a long, long way from Miami.

4) Hawaii Bowl
Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
#24 Hawaii (10-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
OFFENSE!! I WANT OFFENSE!! That’s what people want to see from “meaningless” bowl games and no game is going to provide more of that than this year’s Hawaii Bowl. And these aren’t just offensive teams, these are good solid teams that have remarkable offenses. The over/under on game length? I think it’s about five hours. Hawaii has certainly rebounded from June Jones leaving and has the ranking to prove it. Tulsa was one of Conference USA’s best teams all year and is a play here and a play there from a 10-win season, which they could accomplish anyway with a win in this game. It’s Christmas Eve – do you really need to talk to your family all night? Sneak away and catch this game when you can. It’s going to end at about 1 a.m. on the East Coast anyway, your family should be passed out by then.

3) Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
#5 Wisconsin (11-1) vs. #3 TCU (12-0)
When this appeared to be the Rose Bowl game in November, I dubbed that it would be a Doomsday Scenario for the Granddaddy of Them All. I could not have been more wrong. For starters, Wisconsin went on an insane run to finish the season, topping 70 three times and dropping a grosteque 80-bomb on Indiana. And since it’s Wisconsin, the whole state will be airlifted to Pasadena for the game. TCU, thanks to its second straight undefeated regular season, has finally gained the respect of college football fans and is on its way to a BCS conference when it joins the Big East in 2012. Since it’s the Rose Bowl, every living TCU alum is trying to make their way to the game. The atmosphere will be electric. The storyline is tremendous – can TCU hang with the big boys. And, kudos to TCU coach Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs are not playing the “we deserve a title shot” card. Instead, they’re playing the, “opportunity to prove ourselves” card, which is infinitely more enjoyable.

2) Sugar Bowl
Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
#8 Arkansas (10-2) vs. #6 Ohio State (11-1)
Many people have picked Wisconsin/TCU as the most interesting non-title bowl game this season and it caught me off guard. Arkansas and Ohio State playing in a crazed Superdome with two of the most well-known quarterbacks doesn’t interest anybody? This game is an absolute, no doubt about it, must-watch. Will Ohio State finally beat an SEC team in a bowl game? Can Jim Tressel get another superb BCS performance out of Terrelle Pryor? What tricks does Bobby Petrino have up his sleeve? Is Ryan Mallet a top 10 NFL Draft pick? Does Ohio State’s defense have the answer for Arkansas’ unstoppable offense? So many juicy subplots, loads of NFL talent and what should be an amazing atmosphere. Yes please.

1) BCS Title Game
Jan. 10, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs. #2 Oregon (12-0)
There’s not much to say about how great this game is that hasn’t been said already. What I’m most excited about is that it’s clearly the best game of the bowl season. Think about all the years in the BCS era where the title game wasn’t really for the true championship, in many people’s eyes, or that the game simply wasn’t as interesting as other BCS games. This year feels different and it feels good. The bowl system has its traditional order restored….all the other games lead up to the big one. It’s like a fight card – you have the undercard, you have the semi-main events and then you have the undisputed main event. Auburn vs. Oregon for everything is the undisputed main event of the 2010 college football season, even if it’s taking place about nine days later than it should.

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My BCS Solution: The Old School Plus One

2010-12-13T12:20:00.000-05:00

It stuns people when I tell them I love the bowls. It used to anger me. As time has worn on, I realize people don’t remember or know why we love bowls. For the past 15 years, college football and the BCS has gone out of their way to destroy the two things that the sport had thrived on – the bowl system and New Year’s Day.

I remember growing up in the 1980s and early 1990s with New Year’s Day as the A#1 best sporting day of the year. There wasn’t even a number two. I would wake up New Year’s morning like a kid on Christmas, spend the next 12-14 hours plastered in front of my television screen and would go to bed with a treasure trove of memories. There wasn’t even a real national champion – it was always referred to as a “mythical” national championship – but that didn’t seem to matter. College football didn’t have a true champion but it had the best sporting day of the year. It seemed like a fair trade.

Then came the Bowl Alliance in the mid-1990s, the forerunner to the BCS and the eventual destruction of New Year’s Day and the bowl system. With the dissolution of tie-ins and the creation of one national championship game, the other bowls on New Year’s Day were left to fend for themselves. The games were no longer in the business of putting together the best matchup possible in hopes of getting a national title game, they had been reduced to simply trying to sell the place out. That was it. The joy of college football was slowly being sucked away by the loss of New Year’s Day.

As we survey today’s landscape, we see the title game takes place a whopping nine days after New Year’s Day. To watch all the BCS games, I can’t just invest my New Year’s Day. I need to invest my New Year’s Day, my Jan. 3rd, my Jan. 4th and my Jan. 10th. I’m a college football nut, of course I’ll be there for all four days. But what about the casual fan? What do they do?

It would be one thing if this had led to the creation of a true national champion year in and year out. Instead, the BCS has managed to screw up, well, just about everything. They took away the traditional bowl tie-ins. They took away New Year’s Day. They haven’t given us anything.

Throughout the 1990s, as split national titles became alarmingly frequent, the call wasn’t for a playoff – it was for a plus-one. Sure, there were playoff proponents but nowhere near the outcry there is now. People loved the bowls. But people wanted a champion. And to decide that true national champion, all the power conferences had to do was institute a plus-one after the bowls. But of course, that would’ve been too easy.

What we’re left with now is, quite simply, a mess. The double-hosting model has bloated the BCS, strung it out and left it looking like most bloated, strung-out corporate messes. The college presidents can go on and on about the glory of the Rose Bowl or the sanctity of the Sugar Bowl, but those games haven’t meant what they did in nearly two decades now. There’s a whole generation of student-athletes who have absolutely no idea why playing on New Year’s Day is a big deal.

Hope remains though. College football doesn’t need a playoff. College football doesn’t need the current BCS. College football needs a compromise. College football needs to look back at its past and reclaim its future.

My plan is simple – go back to four big bowl games on New Year’s Day. The Rose Bowl gets its traditional matchup. The SEC champion goes to the Sugar Bowl. The ACC champion goes to the Orange Bowl. The Big XII champion goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Those three bowls make at-large selections to match up with its champion and the bowl with the highest ranked champion picks first. The Big East champion is one of the selections, along with two at-large teams. There are no restrictions on the at-large selections. The games can do what they want. They’ll want to pick the highest rated team.

Because after the four bowl games are played on New Year’s Day, we do the polls again, we recalculate the computer rankings based on everyone’s bowl games and we come up with a true #1 and #2. Those two teams then play for the national title a week or two later at whichever of the four bowls is “double hosting” that year.

My plan solves all of college football’s problems. The bowls mean something again. New Year’s Day means something again. We’re closer to a true national champion. The bowl results will matter, they will no longer be called meaningless exhibitions by sportswriters desperate for a new angle. No longer will a team be “disappointed” to play in the Sugar Bowl like Alabama in 2008 or the Rose Bowl like USC in 2006.

From day one of practice, the goal of teams will be set in stone. Every Big Ten and Pac-12 team can again shoot for the Rose Bowl, without the caveat of hopefully playing in a bigger game. There will be no bigger game.

The best part of my plan, though, is how it almost completely eliminates the BCS bashing by creatively pushing it to the side. As it stands now, as soon as the BCS bowls are announced, 118 teams have effectively been eliminated from national title contention. That leads to complaints, which lead to controversy, which leads to the BCS chaos so many love. In my plan, no one has technically been eliminated yet. The season doesn’t end until the end of New Year’s Day.

And when those games are completed and the title game is set – the complainers have little recourse. There are no more games for them. There will only be two teams playing in one, true national title game. There will be no vote after the title game, no chance for a split title. Just one game for the crystal ball – heck, call the title game the Crystal Bowl.

The only thing that really changes is that the number of BCS teams will be reduced from 10 to 8, but I can live with that. The BCS is supposed to be special. Did Notre Dame in 2007 or Ohio State in 2008 or 2010 really deserve a BCS spot? No, they received those spots based on ticket sales and commercial appeal. Why not send those teams to the lower bowls and spread the wealth? The BCS still gets its five games, only with eight teams and more on the line.

The best way to illustrate how it would work is to see how my plan would have played out in the past five seasons, since the dreaded “double hosting” model was foisted upon us. As you will see, the system provide a much more compelling slate of games and settles several debates that caused BCS controversy during those particular season.

You will also note that the ACC is severely dragging down these matchups in total to a much greater degree than the Big East. Since we’re reducing the number of games by one, there has to be stricter qualifications to keep an automatic bid. I don’t know where that would be but I’m thinking that the champion has to have an average rank of 10th over a four-year period.

Also, there is a lack of non-AQ teams as Utah in 2008 and Boise State in 2009 missed the cut. This likely wouldn’t happen in the future since there would be more stringent restrictions on automatic qualifiers, particularly for the Big East and ACC, and the non-AQ schools are receiving more credit from voters. I compiled these matchups based on the final BCS standings at the time. Last year, for example, undefeated Boise State was ranked #6 – would that still happen today? Something to consider.

2010

Fiesta Bowl
Big XII Champion vs. At-Large
#7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #4 Stanford (11-1)

Rose Bowl
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
#5 Wisconsin (11-1) vs. #2 Oregon (12-0)

Orange Bowl
ACC Champion vs. At-Large
#13 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. UConn (8-4)

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champion vs. At-Large
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs. #3 TCU (12-0)

Analysis: Just about perfection. Auburn plays TCU in a de facto semifinal game. Oregon controls its own destiny. If Wisconsin wins, the other title game slot would be determined between Stanford and Wisconsin, provided Stanford was able to beat Oklahoma. And, since the at-large selection order is determined by rank, the Orange Bowl goes last and gets UConn, which means the two least attractive BCS teams are confined to one game. We get three games with national championship implications. I like it.

2009

Fiesta Bowl
Big XII Champion vs. At-Large
#2 Texas (13-0) vs. #3 Cincinnati (12-0)

Rose Bowl
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
#8 Ohio State (10-2) vs. #7 Oregon (10-2)

Orange Bowl
ACC Champion vs. At-Large
#9 Georgia Tech (11-2) vs. #5 Florida (12-1)

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champion vs. At-Large
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs. #4 TCU (12-0)

Analysis: The best example of how this would work, if we forget undefeated Boise State is shut out. We get two national semifinals between the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, giving Cincinnati and TCU a chance to prove their worth. The Rose Bowl gets its traditional matchup. And the Orange Bowl goes from an okay game between Georgia Tech and Iowa to a guaranteed sellout with Tim Tebow’s last college game.

2008

Fiesta Bowl
Big XII Champion vs. At-Large
#1 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. #4 Alabama (12-1)

Rose Bowl
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
#8 Penn State (11-1) vs. #5 USC (11-1)

Orange Bowl
ACC Champion vs. At-Large
#19 Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. #12 Cincinnati (11-2)

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champion vs. At-Large
#2 Florida (12-1) vs. #3 Texas (11-1)

Analysis: An odd year that again gives us what appears to be two national semifinals, though I think USC would be in the discussion if it produced a big enough victory over Penn State. Utah, undefeated and #6, is the obvious team left out thanks to the Big East and the ACC dragging down the Orange Bowl again. The most important improvement to this lineup, though, is that Texas gets a chance to play for the title if they beat Florida, as opposed to being left on the sidelines because of politics and rankings and that whole fiasco that was 2008.

2007

Fiesta Bowl
Big XII Champion vs. At-Large
#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #9 West Virginia (10-2)

Rose Bowl
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #7 USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl
ACC Champion vs. At-Large
#3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #6 Missouri (10-2)

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champion vs. At-Large
#2 LSU (11-2) vs. #5 Georgia (10-2)

Analysis: Remember how 2007 made absolutely no sense? Remember how LSU went from #7 after Thanksgiving to #2 in the final standings because of it? Well this takes all that chaos and creates one unforgettable day of football. LSU and Georgia, the SEC’s top two teams, didn’t play in the regular season so they get an incredible bowl matchup. The 2007 Ohio State team didn’t deserve to play for a title – maybe this Rose Bowl would expose them. Missouri does not get left out of the BCS for Kansas because, at #6, they would have an outside chance at playing for a national title. In face, we get FOUR games on New Year’s Day that could impact the national title. This is what college football should be all about – one day of the best teams playing the best teams.

2006

Fiesta Bowl
Big XII Champion vs. At-Large
#10 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #4 LSU (10-2)

Rose Bowl
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
#1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. #5 USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl
ACC Champion vs. At-Large
#14 Wake Forest (11-2) vs. #6 Louisville (11-1)

Sugar Bowl
SEC Champion vs. At-Large
#2 Florida (12-1) vs. #3 Michigan (11-1)

Analysis: Remember the vigorous debate of who should play Ohio State – Florida or Michigan? Well, that debate gets settled in a big way in a Sugar Bowl game that would’ve been enormous. On the other side, Ohio State gets in with a win. If they lose, does USC go to the title game? Does LSU? Does Louisville? Likely, three games with national title implications. But, if LSU lost and USC won ugly, Louisville could’ve snuck in.

In conclusion, all I ask is for you to look at the bowl matchups I’ve created and compared them to what actually happened.

Which would you rather have?

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Final Regular Season Top 25 Looks A Lot Like All The Rest

2010-12-08T16:07:00.000-05:00

I don’t how to accurately sum up how exciting these final weeks were when, on the surface, not much happened. The top 10 rarely changed during November, with the obvious exception of Boise State’s bowing out to Nevada on the Friday after Thanksgiving. There were tremendous games, a lot of excitement and, somehow, not much changed. We penciled in an Auburn/Oregon title game in late October and it survived November.

The plus side to such a formful end to the regular season is a lineup of top bowl games that are among the best in recent memory. I know UConn sticks out like a sore thumb but a) they won their conference and b) I’m a season ticket holder. So I’m all for it. The other four BCS games all provide really good matchups. It says something when 10-2 Arkansas vs. 11-1 Ohio State is only the third most intriguing game. And the top-heavy nature of conferences gives us some delightful non-BCS bowls in Michigan State/Alabama and LSU/Texas A&M to name two. I’ll be coming out with my own “Ranking the Bowls” column later this week because, come on, how could I resist?

There was very little movement in my rankings this week so I’m only going to write up about teams that played. Excluding Boise & Nevada, since they just beat up on poor souls.

25 Hawaii (10-3)
Last week: NR
The WAC more ranked teams this week than the Big East, ACC and Pac-10, and as many as the Big Ten. I say this because Boise State and Nevada were much better teams than we realized and the WAC was easily the most competitive non-BCS conference this year. Think that its fourth-place team Fresno State beat a Big Ten team this weekend and Hawaii ended with 10 wins. And there were two teams dramatically better than them. Incredible. Hawaii got a huge win over Nevada this year and very quietly has returned to being a Top 25-caliber team in the wake of June Jones leaving for SMU. I think many had written off Hawaii when that happened and that has proven to be a bad move.

24 Mississippi State (8-4)
Last week: 24

23 Connecticut (8-4)
Last week: 25
It was ugly. It was tough to watch. In the end, it was spectacular. UConn is heading to the Fiesta Bowl and, for a season ticket holder like myself, it is just about the greatest thing has ever happened ever. Ever. The game against South Florida accurately summed up UConn this year. The offense consisted of Jordan Todman and no one else. The forward pass was as difficult as advanced calculus. The special teams were spectacular. The defense bent, did not break and came up with turnovers. And in the end, they played smarter than their opponent. That’s how UConn wins.

I must say that I wish more people would give UConn at least a little credit for winning the Big East. Especially those that would’ve wanted to see West Virginia in the BCS, considering UConn beat them. That’s not to say I disagree with some of the sentiment since having an unranked, 8-4 team in the BCS seems extremely unfair to a team like Boise State. But there seems to be an unusual amount of outrage because of UConn and it’s because they’re a new kid on the block. I don’t remember, and I could be wrong, people running around with pitchforks because Florida State (twice) and Virginia Tech won the ACC with four losses.

22 Florida State (9-4)
Last week: 21
Very rarely can a program like Florida State give up 44 points and lose a game by two scores and not get drilled for it. Yes, it helped that the backup QB was starting but you get the feeling that Florida State is definitely a team and a program on the upswing. Toward the end of the Bobby Bowden era, the helmet was the same but the team almost never seemed to play with passion. And that’s the biggest difference between this year’s team and teams of the past few years – they always showed up. If you look back on their season, I really think the blowout loss to Oklahoma was the best thing that happened. It showed them how far they were from being great and where they needed to go. I have a feeling Jimbo Fisher mentioned that to his players a few times.

With Urban Meyer’s resignation today and Miami’s looming coaching search, Florida State is on the verge of reclaiming the most talent-rich state in the union.

21 South Carolina (9-4)
Last week: 18
The score was not indicative of how South Carolina played Saturday against Auburn. When they scored to make it 21-14 near the end of the first half, we were on the precipice of an amazing second half. Then Auburn scored on the Hail Mary, the air went out of the Carolina balloon and the second half was academic. This is not meant to disrespect Auburn and how well they played, but South Carolina was prepared to be with them in the second half before the Hail Mary. The game quickly got out of hand and, eh, it happens. More pressing now for South Carolina is the narrative being written that a bowl game loss would ruin the season – that’s never good motivation for a team.

20 West Virginia (9-3)
Last week: 23
They should've and could've won every game they played this year. They lost three. No wonder there's a good portion of Mountaineer fans who want a coaching change.

19 Utah (10-2)
Last week: 20

18 Alabama (9-3)
Last week: 19

17 Nebraska (10-3)
Last week: 14
Will Nebraska ever have a quarterback who can throw the ball? The Taylor Martinez situation, if it is as has been presented, will be very interesting to follow during the spring. Nebraska, like Florida State, is a program clearly on the rise but it really need to win that Oklahoma game, especially after jumping out to a big lead. That was a poor response to have a lead and now they’re stuck in a bowl game rematch in the same bowl they played in last year. The Big Ten and 2011 can’t come soon enough for the Cornhuskers.

16 Missouri (10-2)
Last week: 17

15 Texas A&M (9-3)
Last week: 16

14 Oklahoma State (10-2)
Last week: 15

13 LSU (10-2)
Last week: 13

12 Virginia Tech (11-2)
Last week: 11
The ACC script seems to be repeating itself every year now. Virginia Tech loses an early, huge nonconference game. They lose another game they shouldn’t lose. Everyone writes them off. They show up the first week of December, no one realizes they’ve returned and they win the ACC title game easily. At least there were people in the stands to witness their latest championship. And if they had beat Boise, they wouldn’t have lost to James Madison, they’d be 13-0 and possibly playing in the national title game over Oregon. You wonder why no one wants to schedule Boise.

11 Nevada (12-1)
Last week: 10

10 Michigan State (11-1)
Last week: 9

9 Ohio State (11-1)
Last week: 8

8 Oklahoma (11-2)
Last week: 12
As a UConn fan, let me just say that I am terrified of the Fiesta Bowl. I’m almost afraid to watch because there are only two legitimate outcomes – an unholy Oklahoma beatdown or a UConn win. I’m serious, if this is a close game in the second half, UConn will win because the Oklahoma players, coaching staff and fans will be the most nervous bunch of people you’ve ever seen in your life. And you sort of get the feeling the Big XII title game means a whole lot more than the Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma. It may be a good thing that game is getting eliminated.

7 Arkansas (10-2)
Last week: 7

6 Boise State (10-1)
Last week: 6

5 Stanford (11-1)
Last week: 5

4 Wisconsin (11-1)
Last week: 4

3 TCU (12-0)
Last week: 3

2 Oregon (12-0)
Last week: 2
Around 6 p.m. Saturday, Championship Saturday 2010 felt a lot like Championship Saturday 2005, when USC and Texas obliterated good teams to set up their inevitable title matchup. Neither Oregon or Auburn were as impressive as those two or as highly touted, but this has to be one of the best championship games in BCS history. If for no other reason than it matches the two best teams without question – sorry TCU – and they both successful dealt with the pressure of being #1 or #2 in the BCS for six weeks.

1 Auburn (13-0)
Last week: 1
I wouldn’t want to play Auburn and Cam Newton. Would you? If you’re looking for an indicator of what the title game might look like, rewatch Auburn’s insane 65-43 victory over 10-2 Arkansas. Arkansas, with a backup quarterback, was scoring and scoring. Yet it wasn’t even in the same vicinity of Auburn and their point total. It’s too early for a pick but I get the feeling no team is going to be able to outscore Auburn. And that’s how Oregon plays.

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The Big East Needs To Use Basketball To Start Its Own Network

2010-12-07T16:53:00.000-05:00

In the talk about conference realignment, the Big East has been the bastard child of discussions. The Pac-10 had its dreams of a superconference, but settled at 12, a title game and a new philosophy for scheduling. The Big Ten has already cashed in on a title game thanks to a new deal with Fox. The Big XII lost teams that actually made it more valuable since splitting money 10 ways is better than splitting money 12 ways. The Big East added TCU and the collective reaction was a yawn compared to other realignment moves.

However, the entire discussion has been focused on football because football drives the college athletic bus at the moment. Seeing Fox fork over $140 million for six Big Ten championship games – yes, just that one game a year – is pretty obvious evidence of that. But the Big East is different. It has the best college basketball league in the country and the most popular league in the country – the ACC is really just Duke and North Carolina.

Why am I talking about college basketball on a blog devoted to college football? Because for the Big East to survive as a college football conference, it needs to thrive as a college basketball conference. “But the Big East is thriving in basketball,” you say. And you’d be right. They just need to do more.

They need to create the Big East Network and blow the Big Ten Network out of the water. And they can do that with basketball.

Look at this list of the top 100 television markets. Four of the top 10 markets – I’m giving Chicago to Notre Dame – has college basketball teams that a lot of people in those cities care about. I’m not talking “TCU is in Dallas but no one cares,” I’m talking “Villanova in Philly and those fans needs to see their team play.”

Keep going down the list and it’s incredible how many huge markets the Big East has significant footholds in. The #13 market in Tampa. The #23 market in Pittsburgh. The #30 market in Hartford. The #34 market in Cincinnati. The #35 market in Milwaukee. The #50 market in Louisville. All told, that’s an astonishing ten of the top 50 markets that legitimiately care about Big East basketball. How many millions of people is that? A lot of millions.

So far, the Big East has been completely unable to successfully turn these millions of eyeballs into revenue. The league has been so obsessed with maintaining its BCS spot, and rightfully so, that it has completely lost sight of its golden goose. The Big East was built on basketball. It survived on basketball. It needs to use basketball to get back into the discussion of the country’s best athletic conference.

To me, it seems like a pretty easy sell. The Big East now has 17 basketball games and that means an insane inventory of games, enough to satisfy CBS, ESPN and its own network. Right now, the leftover Big East games are divvied up by the conference to local rights holder in the various territories. In Connecticut, that means UConn games end up on SNY. And that’s where I got the idea that a Big East network would be very, very successful.

I’m a huge Mets fans and the entry into Connecticut for the station had been non-existent for the network’s first few years. In fact, it wasn’t until I moved into the city of Hartford proper that I had the opportunity to get the channel. My father, another Mets fan, lives 20 minutes away in the suburbs and couldn’t even pay for SNY. In my group of friends, I was the only one who got SNY. It was baffling but, hey, the Mets aren’t a draw.

Then in August, SNY announced that it had acquired the local Big East rights, meaning it would air all the leftover UConn basketball and football games. Within a week, SNY was now in every home in the country’s 30th television market and, in most cases, on basic cable. It enlightened me.

When the Big Ten Network was formed, the outrage from Big Ten football fans was palpable. The notion of missing out on a Michigan/Minnesota basketball game didn’t seem to register with most. But in Big East country, almost the complete opposite would be true. For many in Connecticut this year, missing UConn/Vanderbilt in football would not have been the end of the world. But missing UConn play any Little Sister of the Poor in basketball would likely cause rioting and uproar.

I’m using Connecticut as an example because I live here but for many Big East schools, basketball is the sport. Think about the Pitt fans, the Georgetown fans, the Syracuse fans, the Notre Dame fans, the Marquette fans, etc. etc. and how they would react to missing their team’s Big East conference basketball games. I can tell you this – they wouldn’t be happy.

So here in Connecticut, the Big East and UConn used its leverage to get SNY carried in the state. That’s awesome for SNY. What does it do for the Big East?

The Big East, as long as it doesn’t play hardball like the NFL did with its network, could easily gain coverage in more than 25 percent of the top 100 television markets. Based on these numbers they would be in 30 million homes immediately and that doesn’t include the possible markets of Boston and Dallas. And that doesn’t include the rest of the country, which the Big East can give the channel on a sports tier like the Big Ten does with theirs.

The reason a Big East Network would work so well for basketball, besides the tremendous amount of available games, is that ESPN and CBS can’t cherry pick the best games. We know that the Big Ten Network will never air a football game between two ranked teams, at least not in its current form. College basketball television schedules, however, are compiled well in advance of the season.

Look at the current #6 team in the country, UConn, and its schedule. SNY is set to air UConn games against Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville and Georgetown, to name a few. That last one, according to this week’s AP Poll, would match #6 UConn against #9 Georgetown. Do you think that game would some appeal?

What does any of this have to do with football? There is no question that Big East football suffers from an image problem and part of that, ironically since the product has been so poor this year, is because so few of their games are seen. The only national games are weeknight affairs or the rare nooner on ESPN2.

The Big East Network alleviates that immediately. Having USF/Syracuse available nationwide might draw derision from sportswriters – “Who wants to see that?” – but it would mean the world in recruiting. How often have you heard a Big Ten football coach talk about how important it is to go in any home in the country and say, “You can watch your son play football.”

To recap: a Big East Network would have plenty of programming, an incredible foothold in many of America’s largest markets, almost certainly increase the paltry revenues its current members are receiving, especially the football playing schools, and give the conference a recruiting tool that not even the SEC could compete with it.

And this hasn’t happened yet because….?

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Life To The BCS: The System Works, Deal With It

2010-12-06T14:49:00.000-05:00

On Sunday night, Chris Fowler made an ass out of himself. Fowler has become the ESPN face of BCS-bashing, as he pontificates weekly on the BCS Countdown show about the evils of the BCS, how it’s ruining college football and likely the cause of horrific national economy. In short, the BCS can never do anything right.

I’ve never been pro-BCS, but I’m not pro-playoff either. Like many, I’m in favor of a plus-one after the bowls, whether it means slotting four teams in “semifinals” in BCS bowls or going to the old-school bowl format and picking the best two teams after. It doesn’t matter which option but I don’t want a playoff. However, to choose between a playoff and the current bowl structure, I’ll take what we have.

That’s why Fowler came off like such an arrogant jerk Sunday night. While the other ESPN analysts begrudgingly admitted there was little to complain, Fowler continued to offensive and lobbed grenades at the BCS. It was painful to sit through because while I will never begrudge anyone for having an opinion, you must at some point admit you’re wrong. Fowler was wrong last night.

In the history of the BCS, never has it worked out as well as it did this year. We have two and only two major conference football teams who went undefeated and they will play for the national title. TCU is undefeated and playing in the Rose Bowl – yes, the Rose Bowl. Just a decade ago, a non-BCS team could go undefeated and not even sniff the BCS. Now, a non-BCS team is a month away from playing in the game most synonymous with college football.

The top eight teams in the BCS standings were all rewarded with trips to the BCS. The other two teams – Virginia Tech and UConn – made it by winning their conference championship. Complain you want about UConn not being deserving, but they earned their spot on the field. Michigan State is the most aggrieved party but their ire should be aimed at the Big Ten. If they played Ohio State, then there would only be two 11-1 Big Ten teams and, if they had won, the Spartans would be in the Rose Bowl.

But when the most aggrieved party is the #9 team in the country and still gets to play Alabama in Orlando – how can I be outraged? I’m not. And it’s not because I’m a UConn fan.

What transpired Sunday night was the culmination of the past BCS follies. Stanford got in because of the Kansas State rule as you recall the Wildcats, ranked #4 in 1998, falling all the way to the Alamo Bowl. TCU is playing in the Rose Bowl because the BCS opened the door to the little guys – a door that was never open pre-BCS and may not be open during a playoff.

It’s funny how adamant American sports fans are about a playoff. What makes college football unique and incredible is the regular season. A 16-team playoff? Would you have even watched the Civil War or the SEC title game Saturday if that happened? Wouldn’t Auburn have rested Cam Newton for the Alabama game since a spot was assured? Is this year’s LSU team really deserving of a national title spot?

In the world’s most popular sport, soccer, the leagues have no playoffs. The champion is the one that played the best during the regular season. It seems to be working. It seems to be working in college football too. Last year’s BCS title game attracted 30+ million viewers, rarified air only the NFL and Game 7s achieve. Regular season ratings for college football easily surpass any non-NFL sport. All of the bowl games, no matter how seemingly unnecessary, draw great ratings for ESPN and their bowl coverage is their highest-rated part of the year.

So why do we keep insisting on wanting to blow things up? Bowls are an easy target but the reasoning is hypocritical to say the least. Most arguments are that bowls are money-hungry and only out for their best interest. So why should we have a playoff? Because it would make more money. Wait, what?

At the end of the day, college football’s popularity is directly tied to the BCS, the bowl system and the amazing regular season. Do you think CBS is forking over billions for the SEC rights if there’s a playoff? Or would they rather show Auburn three times in November, each the equivalent of a playoff game with the ratings to prove it? Does ESPN want Oregon/Oregon State for as a playoff-type game or does it want it as a game to determine playoff seeding?

What’s the last NFL regular season game that determined a champion? Tonight, the Jets and the Patriots will play in a game as big as the NFL regular season has to offer. On the line – home field advantage. Important? Surely. But the loser will still make the playoffs – their championship dreams are only slightly affected by tonight’s outcome.

For me, I want the BCS. I want the bowl games. I want a college football season that provides a remarkable amount of meaningful football from week one, not one that doesn’t truly begin until December.

If you want a playoff, go back to Labor Day night. Think about watching Boise State and Virginia Tech playing a virtual national championship elimination game on the first weekend of the season. Everything was on the line in their first game. You want a playoff, that game then becomes virtually meaningless.

But that night was special. 80,000+ fans in a frenzy. Two top 10 teams going back and forth knowing what was at stake. Kellen Moore leading a drive for the ages. Virginia Tech battling courageously down to the wire. It was an incredible game. I don’t want to lose that game so 10-2 LSU can play for a national title.

No sport outside of soccer produces more worthy national champions than college football. The usual requirement is to win every single one of your games. Why would we ever want to mess with that? Auburn’s first game was just as important as its last.

The BCS isn’t perfect and I doubt it ever will. At some point, though, the system deserves respect for what it’s been able to accomplish. The sport no longer has a “mythical” national champion. All 120 teams have a chance, however unlikely, of playing in a BCS game if they win them all.

And for three straight weeks, at all hours, at all times, there’s college football being played somewhere. Why is a football game on a Wednesday afternoon a bad thing?

You can make all the arguments you want about a playoff, about maximizing revenues and making college football fairer.

However, you have to admit that college football has never been more popular and never been better at crowning a legitimate national champion.

Why even think of messing with a good thing?

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The Picks: Auburn Goes Down, Oregon Rolls, UConn Wins On Championship Saturday

2010-12-02T23:18:00.000-05:00

Lines come from Bodog.com as of Thursday evening. Check out TV listings in your area at Matt Sarz Sports or LSU Football.

Last week: 12-6
Best pick: 9-3
Overall: 100-90-3

Last week’s Worst Pick: What a glorious week I had last week. It guarantees me a winning regular season as long as I don’t go 0-11 this week. And every game I lost was within a touchdown of covering. So the Worst Pick isn’t really that terrible but what I was thinking taking Texas? I think I’ve picked them incorrectly about five times this year and the one time I did pick against them, they beat Nebraska. Thank God they don’t play another game this year.

Northern Illinois -18 over Miami, Ohio, 7 p.m., Friday
I don’t think there has been a hotter team in college football over the past few weeks than Northern Illinois, who stamped the end of their regular season by putting up 70 points against Eastern Michigan. They had a Tuesday MACtacular showcase in November against Toledo for the division crown and they annihilated the Rockets. Miami, Ohio is a great story as second-year coach Mike Haywood has engineered a truly remarkable turnaround from one win last year to eight wins this year. Unfortunately, Miami has not played well against good teams – getting destroyed by Missouri and Cincinnati. Yes, they did play well for a half against Florida in week one but this is different. Northern Illinois will come out focus and cement their status as the MAC’s best team in 2010.

FRESNO STATE +6 over Illinois, 10:15 p.m., Friday
What an intriguing game here. Both teams are practically locked into mid-tier bowl games – what’s the motivation? Illinois has very little. Fresno State, though, has its constant motivation of beating a team from a BCS conference. And, if you remember, Fresno State won last year’s December matchup at Illinois is ridiculous fashion, with an offensive lineman catching the winning two-point conversion play. This game means a lot for Fresno State. Even with revenge on their minds, can Illinois really get that fired up for a cross-country trip that means nothing?

Pittsburgh +2 over CINCINNATI, Noon
My oh my, have things gone south for Pitt. A month ago, they had a two-game lead in the Big East. A week ago, they controlled their own destiny. Today, they have almost no chance at the BCS and will likely be relegated to a low-end bowl like the Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl. Still, they shouldn’t be favored over a Cincinnati team that just got drilled by three touchdowns by UConn. With no bowl to play for, I don’t see Cincinnati coming out with that much fire while Pitt really needs a win to convince its fans that the team hasn’t gone complete in the tank. And Dave Wannstedt might need a win to save his job since a 6-6 season would go over like a fart in church.

WEST VIRGINIA -20.5 over Rutgers, Noon
This is one of those “they couldn’t make the line high enough” games and I’m shocked the spread is only three touchdowns. Rutgers has quit on this season. They gave up 69 points to Cincinnati. They got hammered by Louisville last week. They’re obviously not into football after the Eric LeGrand tragedy during the Army game and, honestly, I can’t blame them. But from a football standpoint, West Virginia is ranked, on a roll and getting ready to possibly play in a BCS bowl game. Rutgers just wants the season to end. Who do you think is going to win?

Smu +9 over UCF, Noon
This is actually one of the games I’m looking forward to this weekend because of the SMU story. How can you not be enthralled with them? They are an awful program for the two decades following the Death Penalty. Then June Jones shows up. Then they win their first bowl game in a quarter century. And now they can win their first conference title since 1984. How cool is that? UCF is a very strong team and they get the title game at home by virtue of a better record. But being on the road will be no worry for SMU, which clinched its division title by taking down East Carolina on the road. SMU is for real – revisit their game against TCU in September in which they held a second half lead. UCF flirted with the Top 25 in November and promptly spit the bit. SMU has the better coach, the better quarterback in Kyle Padron and the better story. Okay, the last one shouldn’t mean anything but it will inspire SMU’s players.

Oregon -17 over OREGON STATE, 3:30 p.m.
If Oregon was #3, or #4, or #5, I could see Oregon State springing the upset. But Oregon is #1 and they’re not losing this game. I wish I could envision a scenario where Oregon State wins this game but I can’t come up with one. They simply lack the playmakers on offense to match Oregon and you know this game is going to be a shootout. The last two years, Oregon State has entered this game with a chance to win the Pac-10. And each time, they were unable to counter Oregon’s offensive firepower. Here we stand with a far better Oregon team and a far worse Oregon State team – why would things be any different? Hint: they’re not.

South Carolina +6 over Auburn, 4 p.m.
I can feel it coming. It seems too easy for undefeated Oregon to play undefeated Auburn. It feels like this season has gone too well for the BCS. We need a controversy, right? And the controversy is going to be a one-loss Auburn team playing for a national title after they lose to South Carolina in the SEC title game.

Lost in the Cam Newton saga and Auburn’s run, South Carolina has quickly turned into a juggernaut. Ask Florida, Troy and Clemson, all of which were left in the Gamecocks’ wake in the past month. With Marcus Lattimore healthy again, this team looks far more like the team that drilled Alabama than the one that couldn’t compete with Arkansas. Also, let’s not forget that in their first meeting, South Carolina was the superior team that did themselves in with a ton of turnovers. They eliminate the turnovers and they will head to the Sugar Bowl.

Washington -6.5 over WASHINGTON STATE, 7 p.m.
BEST PICK OF THE WEEK! If you watched the end of Washington’s victory last week against Cal, you saw a team and a coach seizing the moment. Down three and with one play left from Cal’s one-yard line, the Huskies eschewed the field goal, went for the touchdown and won the game in regulation. It was a ballsy move to the nth degree and they now stand one victory away from its first bowl berth since 2002. I don’t care if the game’s in Pullman. I don’t care if Washington State is sort of improved. I don’t care. Washington is going to win this game and win big. I’d be shocked if it’s still close at halftime.

Virginia Tech -4 over Florida State, 8 p.m.
You got the feeling at the end of last week’s win over Florida that the game meant more to the Seminoles than winning the ACC. No disrespect to the ACC, but Florida State has always been about national championships and beating its in-state rivals. While FSU floundered under Bobby Bowden, Florida became an unstoppable monster. The roles, for at least one afternoon, were reversed last week and it clearly meant a lot to Florida State to finally beat the Gators again. Can they amp themselves up again to play a superior team in a setting that is likely to be 75% Virginia Tech fans? Florida State is good, they’re not great. It would take a great team to beat Virginia Tech Saturday night.

Oklahoma -4.5 over Nebraska, 8 p.m.
The uncertainty around Taylor Martinez obviously throws this game into chaos but, quite honestly, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Oklahoma’s offense, at some point in early November, figured everything out and has been completely and totally unstoppable. Ask Oklahoma State. Or Baylor. Or Texas Tech. Three bowl teams, three sublime offensive performances. Sure, Nebraska’s defense is better than those but they will, at best, slow Oklahoma down. Oklahoma will get its points. Will Nebraska? Add in the entire weird situation hovering over the Nebraska program and Oklahoma’s added motivation send Nebraska to the Big Ten with a loss, and I don’t think this’ll be close. I remember back in 2004 when 5-5 Syracuse gave Boston College an epic beatdown as BC was trying to win the Big East in their final year – the Orange took extra pleasure in ruining BC’s season on their way out and I believe Oklahoma will feel the same way.

UConn +1.5 over SOUTH FLORIDA, 8 p.m.
No commentary needed if you’ve read this site at all this year. UConn is my squad. They are a better team than South Florida right now. If they are not overwhelmed by the moment, they will win this game.

And if they do….we’ll be partying late into the night in the Nutmeg State.

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The Year's Final Bowl Projections

2010-12-02T11:42:00.000-05:00

These will be updated throughout the week if anything changes. Last updated: 12/3, noon

Teams that are underlined have accepted a bowl bid and teams with an asterisks* are there because the contracted conference could meet its obligation.

BCS Title Game
Jan. 10, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
#1 Auburn (12-0) vs. #2 Oregon (11-0)
We’re one week away from the matchup that has been penciled in for weeks and yet I still don’t get the feeling this will be our eventual national title matchup. It’s sort of interesting how these two have been on a collision course since late October, but it lacks the feeling that Texas/USC in 2005 or even Texas vs. Florida/Alabama had last year. This will likely be our national title game but there seems to be the notion that they aren’t really the two best teams, as they haven’t really separated themselves from TCU, Wisconsin or Stanford. It doesn’t really matter – they win on Saturday and they’re in. I don’t think there will be too much BCS bashing, at least for the title game, if only TCU gets left out. Even if it’s TCU against one of these teams, I can’t see too much consternation since Stanford and Wisconsin have both beaten only one ranked team, the same number as TCU. Now if both Auburn & Oregon lose Saturday? Watch out.

Sugar Bowl
Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#7 Arkansas (10-2) vs. #6 Ohio State (11-1)
A fairly simple matchup to predict. Ohio State is definitely going here unless all heck breaks loose, Wisconsin ends up in the title game and they end up in Pasadena. That’s probably not going to happen and there’s no way that the Sugar Bowl is going to pass up a one-loss Ohio State team with its at-large selection. On the other side, Ohio State will either play Arkansas if Auburn wins or South Carolina if the Gamecocks pull of the upset. So very, very simple. Almost too simple…

Orange Bowl
Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. UConn (7-4)
Here’s where things get tricky as the result of the ACC title game and the Big East conference race will dramatically impact how this game goes. The at-large selection for the Orange Bowl will be between two teams that must receive bids – the Big East champion and Stanford, by virtue of finishing in the top 4. If Virginia Tech wins the ACC title game, the bowl needs to make sure its stadium is full and I think will go with the Big East champion, whether its UConn or West Virginia. They may pick Stanford over UConn but they then run the risk of having a bowl game in front of 40,000 people. If Florida State wins the ACC title game, it’s a no-brainer and they pick Stanford regardless of who wins the Big East.

Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Big XII Champion vs. BCS at-large
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) vs. #4 Stanford (11-1)
The Big XII champion will obviously be Nebraska or Oklahoma and the winner is obviously headed here. The Fiesta Bowl picks last so it gets either Stanford or the Big East champion, whichever the Orange Bowl passes on. Stanford can’t sell out its own stadium so it’s not really a draw for bowls, but the Fiesta would be in a better position to handle them than the Orange Bowl, since Oklahoma or Nebraska would likely bringing 20,000+ easy. If this game gets stuck with UConn, will the Big XII champion bring as many fans?

Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Eligible non-BCS school must be replacement
#5 Wisconsin (11-1) vs. #3 TCU (12-0)
Another BCS game that is practically locked into place assuming all goes according to plan Saturday. Wisconsin will be the Big Ten’s BCS champion and will go to the Rose Bowl. Since Oregon is off to the title game, TCU slides in here. If Oregon loses, they would fall here and TCU would likely move up to the title game. If Auburn loses, then Stanford moves up here to replace TCU, who goes to the title game. And if both Oregon & Auburn lose, the BCS effectively blows up and who knows who goes where. If you’re a fan of BCS chaos, that’s really your last hope at this point.

New Mexico Bowl
Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MWC #4/#5
UTEP* (6-6) vs. BYU (6-6)
BYU is practically locked into this game since the Armed Forces Bowl really, really wants to get its hands on Army. The other side of the equation should be a WAC team but I’m predicting the WAC to maneuver its teams around to maximize matchups. Look, the WAC may not be a conference in two years, who cares about bowl tie-ins? UTEP steps in here since it's about four hours away from campus. Conference USA will swap in an at-large team for its New Orleans Bowl berth.

Humanitarian Bowl
Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MAC #3
Fresno State (7-4) vs. Toledo (8-4)
I highly doubt that Boise State will get stuck here as some have surmised. Fresno State could end up in the New Mexico Bowl to free this spot up for an at-large but I feel like Boise State wouldn’t let that happen. This game could get Boise or Nevada, however, if the MAC offers up its best team, #25 Northern Illinois, to create a ranked matchup. A longshot but possible.

New Orleans Bowl
Dec. 18, 9 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. Sun Belt Champion
Ohio U* (8-4) vs. FIU (6-5)
FIU has to win its last game to secure this spot. If they don't, then Middle Tennessee State would get to six wins and would take this spot, sending FIU to Detroit. UTEP was eyed here but would bring nobody. And the MAC needs a team here to avoid a MAC vs. MAC bowl game somewhere.

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
C-USA vs. Big East #6
Southern Miss (8-4) vs. Pitt (6-5)
Southern Miss will apparently officially accept a bid here Tuesday afternoon, which makes sense. Pitt drops like a rock down the Big East bowls because it fail way short of expectations and their fans don’t travel for them anyway. If West Virginia ends up winning the Big East, everything gets changed. And remember, Pitt can still win the Big East and play in the BCS. Yes, yes they can.

Las Vegas Bowl
Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. MWC Champion
#17 Nevada* (11-1) vs. #21 Utah (10-2)
I don’t know how logical this is but I’ve read about it enough that I’m going with it. Utah is a lock for this game. The Pac-10 will have nothing for them so they look to Nevada and, somehow, this bowl ends up with a Pac-12 (Utah) vs. Mountain West (Nevada) matchup. The Las Vegas Bowl would rather have Boise State but there's no way the game in San Francisco is going to give up Boise State unless they're getting something big in return.

Poinsettia Bowl
Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Navy vs. MWC #2
Navy (8-3) vs. San Diego State (8-4)
The first game locked up on both sides of the equation. It'd been penciled in for months and was finally made official after the Las Vegas Bowl took Utah. That left San Diego State and an easy decision. This will almost certainly be this bowl game's biggest crowd and probably by a lot.

Hawaii Bowl
Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. C-USA #2-6
Hawaii (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Hawaii is set here and bowl organizers are now trying to get the best opponent for the Warriors, who are ranked in the Top 25. If UCF wins the Conference USA championship game, that leaves 9-3 Tulsa as the best bet for this game. If SMU wins, then Tulsa would head to the Armed Forces Bowl and UCF would head to the island to play Hawaii. So this game will be Hawaii vs. Tulsa or Hawaii vs. UCF.

Little Ceaser’s Pizza Bowl
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten #8 (Sun Belt backup) vs. MAC #1
Boston College* (7-5) vs. #25 Northern Illinois (10-2)
This is where the projections get tricky. If Middle Tennessee State wins Saturday, they’ll get to six wins and they would be contractually obligated to play here. Or at least a Sun Belt team would play here, not necessarily them. If that happens, I’d assume Northern Illinois gets shipped to somewhere better. As is, they stay here to play Boston College, who is the ACC’s ugly duckling again. Normally, BC would be ticked off to play in Detroit but they get a ranked opponent so they suffer through it.

Independence Bowl
Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
ACC #7 vs. MWC #3
Clemson (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4)
Air Force is a lock for this game and the announcement has been made before this weekend’s games. The ACC has a ton of mediocre teams and I like Clemson here just because they’re more likely to travel some folks than Georgia Tech or Boston College.

Champs Sports Bowl
Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Big East #2/Notre Dame vs. ACC #3
#24 West Virginia (8-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
There’s a lot of talk that Notre Dame is a lock for this game. If they were a lock, the Champs Sports Bowl would’ve already invited because there’s nothing stopping them from doing so. I strongly believe the Champs Sports Bowl wants a ranked, 9-3 West Virginia team if they can get them. They only get Notre Dame once over the next four years. If this was the 3rd or 4th year of the contract, then obviously they take them. Instead, they could get the Big East’s most attractive team and still keep the Notre Dame door open. If West Virginia gets the BCS, then Notre Dame goes here. On the ACC side, NC State is easily the most attractive team. They could go to Maryland if Notre Dame is on the other side – Maryland/West Virginia would be a rematch.

Insight Bowl
Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5
#13 Nebraska (10-2) vs. Michigan (7-5)
So how does Nebraska fall all the way here? For starters, the Cotton Bowl will pass on them since they will have just played the Big XII title game in the same stadium. And I believe the Alamo Bowl passes on them since they’re stuck with Arizona and I don’t think Nebraska wants to play the same team in a bowl again. So instead, they go to Arizona to play a mega-matchup against Michigan in a battle of soon-to-be conference rivals. Prior to BC joining the ACC, that conference set up a similar matchup in Charlotte with North Carolina as a showcase for the new conference. This is like that except 100 times bigger.

Military Bowl
Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #8 vs. C-USA #2-6
Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
This game picks last from the ACC and will get to choose between 6-6 Georgia Tech and 7-5 Boston College. Joy. East Carolina is a lock for this game and the obvious announcement was made on Tuesday. There's a lot of chatter that Maryland falls to here to help sell tickets but I can't imagine that happening.

Texas Bowl
Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #6 vs. Big Ten #6
Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-5)
Baylor & Texas Tech are both 7-5 and will likely split the bids for this game and the TicketCity Bowl New Year’s morning in Dallas. Since I think Baylor is the better story, they get slotted slightly higher. Illinois may need to win its finale against Fresno State to lock up this game, or they could fall to the TicketCity Bowl as well, swapping with Northwestern.

Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #2 vs. Big XII #3
#23 Arizona (7-4) vs. #14 Oklahoma State (10-2)
With two Pac-10 teams in the BCS, Arizona ends up here by default since it’s possible there’s literally no other team from the conference eligible. Since Arizona is here, Nebraska won’t want to play them again and Oklahoma State always brings a ton of fans to the Alamo Bowl anyway. The Alamo Bowl is probably still holding out hope for Stanford to fall out of the BCS and end up here. Not going to happen.

Armed Forces Bowl
Dec. 30, Noon, ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. MWC #4/5 or Army
SMU (7-5) vs. Army (6-5)
For a while, I thought this game wouldn’t want SMU since the game is played in SMU’s stadium this year but I was wrong. If SMU loses the Conference USA championship game, they will end up here. If they win, they go to the Liberty Bowl and Tulsa plays Army.

Pinstripe Bowl
Dec. 30, 3 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #7 vs. Big East #4
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kansas State has been headed here for months and nothing has really changed since the bowls in Texas will want Baylor and Texas Tech, leaving the Wildcats for New York. Likewise, Syracuse has been ticketed to this game for a while and it makes the most sense. UConn is also a slight chance if they lose to South Florida but I think Syracuse makes far more sense for the new game.

Music City Bowl
Dec. 30, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC #7 vs. ACC #6
Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Tennessee got its much-needed sixth win and I can’t imagine any scenario where a bowl in Nashville would pass up the Volunteers. If it gets North Carolina on the other side, they could be looking at a sell-out. UNC could also be headed to the Sun Bowl but I think that bowl will still take Miami, despite its chaotic coaching situation. In any state, Miami’s football team moves the needle.

Holiday Bowl
Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #3 vs. Big XII #5
Washington (5-6) vs. #12 Missouri (8-2)
Congrats Missouri, you won ten games and may end up ranked in the top ten. Your reward? A 6-6 Pac-10 team! At least Washington can trot out Jake Locker as a reason why people should care about this game. If Washington loses Saturday to Washington State, this becomes an at-large spot and you can look for Notre Dame, an ACC team and Boise State/Nevada to be in the mix to set up a really good matchup.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN
ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
Maryland (8-4) vs. Louisville (6-6)
This is obviously dependent on the Champs Sports Bowl passing on Notre Dame. If they don’t, then West Virginia goes here and the ACC team changes. I think, since this bowl’s director has publicly stated he’d be okay with another West Virginia/Maryland bowl rematch, like they did at the 2004 Gator Bowl. Louisville is a very attractive team since the fanbase is pumped up about new coach Charlie Strong so they’d travel well and they haven’t played in Charlotte before. Maryland could end up in Orlando or even the Sun Bowl, but this seems to be the most likely landing spot for now.

Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
ACC #4 vs. Pac-10 #4
Miami, Fla. (7-5) vs. Temple* (8-4)
Why Miami? Why not? The Sun Bowl gets great local support so it cares mostly about TV viewers for CBS. Miami will mean more to casual fans than Maryland or North Carolina. The game desperately wants Notre Dame but the Irish have better options. The Sun Bowl director has said he wants Notre Dame or a Big East team to play Miami. I'm not sure if that's going to work out unless UConn loses Saturday and Notre Dame takes the Champs Sports Bowl. That will leave a Big East team, likely UConn available. Also, it could be moot because Oregon State or Washington would go here if both teams win Saturday.

Liberty Bowl
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8/9 (Big East #5 backup)
UCF (9-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
The Conference USA champion will play here, either UCF or SMU. The SEC side is practically locked in to Georgia since Tennessee will be taken and Georgia is far more attractive than Kentucky.

Chick-fil-a Bowl
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
#21 Florida State (9-3) vs. #22 Mississippi State (8-4)
Yet another game that seems set in stone. The bowl has basically announced it’s going to take the loser of Florida State/Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, no matter what. On the other side, I don’t foresee any scenario where the SEC team isn’t Mississippi State.

TicketCity Bowl
Jan. 1, Noon, ESPNU
Big XII #8 vs. Big Ten #7
Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Northwestern (7-5)
As mentioned above, this game and the Texas Bowl are going to split up four teams – Texas Tech & Baylor on the Big XII side, Illinois & Northwestern on the Big Ten side. The Texas Bowl picks first on both sides so this game gets left with whatever teams are unwanted by that game.

Outback Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
Penn State (7-5) vs. #19 South Carolina (9-3)
No one will be rooting harder for South Carolina than the Outback Bowl. If South Carolina loses as expected, they will certainly end up here. However, if they win, that pushes Arkansas out of the BCS and likely pushes LSU or Alabama down to this game. No disrespect to South Carolina, but a 9-4 Gamecock team coming off of a loss is a tad less attractive than Alabama or LSU. Penn State moves up to this game since the Big Ten has three 7-5 teams and both Iowa and Michigan have ended the season with a thud.

Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2
#16 Alabama (9-3) vs. #8 Michigan State (11-1)
If Auburn wins, this game will choose between LSU & Alabama. Despite LSU’s better record and win over Alabama, they were here last year and Alabama hasn’t since the mid-1990’s. If South Carolina wins the SEC title, I think Arkansas would be the pick here, though it could still be Alabama. Michigan State is locked here.

Gator Bowl
Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
SEC #6 vs. Big Ten #4/5
Florida (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)
These teams always seem to play in bowls, no? Florida is locked here unless the Chick-fil-a Bowl makes a very surprising decision. Iowa could go to the Outback Bowl but the loss to Minnesota really sends them plummeting. It wouldn’t totally surprise me if this ended up Florida/Michigan.

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
MAC vs. Sun Belt #2
Miami, Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (6-5)
I had Ohio here for a while but they get moved since Miami, Ohio will be playing the MAC title game and shouldn’t have to play its bowl two weeks later. Troy seems to be set here unless Middle Tennessee gets to six wins, then the Sun Belt could do some shuffling.

Cotton Bowl
Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Big XII #2 vs. SEC #3/4
#18 Texas A&M (9-3) vs. #10 LSU (10-2)
The Cotton Bowl doesn’t want the Big XII title game loser and a hot Texas A&M team is a license to print money in Texas. The SEC side will be one of Arkansas, Alabama and LSU. Since the Capital One Bowl doesn’t want LSU again, they’ll land here.

BBVA Compass Bowl
Jan. 8, Noon, ESPN
SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5
Kentucky (6-6) vs. USF (7-4)
If USF can spring the upset against UConn Saturday, they may move up to the bowl game in Charlotte but this may be their landing spot regardless. Kentucky is stuck here since no other SEC bowl wants them.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. WAC
Notre Dame (7-5) vs. #11 Boise State (11-1)
MAKE THIS HAPPEN! If the Champs Sports Bowl passes on Notre Dame, they become a highly-sought after free agent. This game, with Boise State, can provide the best opponent and the biggest spotlight. What kind of crazy ratings would this game get after a day of NFL Playoffs??

Besides the Champs Sports Bowl picking Notre Dame, the other thing getting in the way of this game would be Notre Dame’s motives. Would they rather play in the Sun Bowl against a middle of the road ACC team in an effort to get a big bowl win? Or do they challenge themselves?

It also appears this game has a backup agreement with the ACC but I'm still holding out hope for a deal behind the scenes. Boise State deserves better than Boston College.

If this game happens, it would be the biggest non-BCS bowl game, well, ever maybe. Please, please, please make this happen.

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Cam Newton, Steve Spurrier, Zach Frazer and Washington meet the Crossroads

2010-12-02T10:33:00.000-05:00

Every week, I take a trip to The Crossroads to visit the teams, players, coaches, conferences and announcers that have reach a turning point in their season.

10 Middle Tennessee State
It’s a little big under the radar but Middle Tennessee is playing for a bowl bid Saturday against FIU, the Sun Belt conference champion. And MTSU isn’t playing just to become bowl eligible – there’s a spot waiting for them. Because the Big Ten will get two teams in the BCS, that opens up their spot in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl in Detroit to a third Sun Belt team. The Sun Belt has two bowl eligible teams so MTSU needs to win to make it three. And even better – MTSU wouldn’t be playing in Detroit. Nope, thanks to a good fanbase, they would be playing in the New Orleans Bowl. Where would you rather be in December – Detroit or New Orleans? Middle Tennessee has had a tough year with its best player, QB Dwight Dasher, being suspended for the first four games. They definitely might’ve beaten Minnesota and Memphis with Dasher. No matter now because they are one win away from another bowl berth and a successful season. If they lose – it won’t be a successful season.

9 The Big XII
For some reason, the Big XII championship game never caught on like the SEC Championship Game, despite almost always having a national title contender playing. Maybe it was the constant rotation of sites. Maybe it was the fact one team was usually a heavy underdog. Maybe it was because the game never had the Armageddon-type showdowns that the SEC has been able to produce on an annual basis. Whatever reason, the last Big XII title game for the foreseeable future will be played Saturday night and it sums up everything that went wrong with the conference. Two long-time rivals, Oklahoma and Nebraska, will meet for the last time in a while – in Texas. It’s just wrong. For the Big XII’s sake, let’s hope Oklahoma wins. It would be embarrassing if the defending champion was playing in the Big Ten.

8 Northern Illinois
The MAC title game has consistently been one of the most entertaining title games each year and this year should be no different. On one side, you have the remarkable story of Miami, Ohio, which won one game last year under first-year head coach Mike Haywood and is now 8-4. But the team that needs to win the game is Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 10-2, ranked and easily the class of the MAC in 2010. But to prove you’re the best, you need to raise the championship trophy at the end of the year. The Huskies will be favored and rightfully so, having blown out three consecutive opponents. Now, they must finish the job.

7 June Jones
When June Jones came to SMU from Hawaii, there were more than a few who were skeptical about his ability to turn around yet another program, especially one as moribund as SMU. His first goal was to make a bowl game and they did that last year. His next goal was to win the Conference USA championship – he’s one game away. If SMU can defeat UCF in Orlando Saturday afternoon, they will win their first conference championship since 1984, aka pre-Death Penalty. Do they build the statute to Jones immediately after the game if he wins or do they wait? There’s no doubt SMU is on the way up regardless of the outcome Saturday but don’t tell that to Jones. This is his plan. This is the next step. Don’t think his players aren’t aware of what’s at stake. June Jones has an incredible ability to motivate his players to do things no one else think they can. There are few who think SMU can go on the road and beat a superior team for a title. Would you pick against Jones at this point?

6 Steve Spurrier
When Steve Spurrier came to South Carolina after flaming out with the Washington Redskins, expectations were absurdly high. The Ol’ Ball Coach? Back in the SEC? How can he not win 10 games a year? Unfortunately for Spurrier, it’s not easy climbing the mountain in the SEC when you’re not coaching Florida. South Carolina, for all its support, has been a stunningly average team for almost its entire history. It’s tough to shake 100 years of mediocrity. He came close, most notably in 2007 when he got them into the top five, but Spurrier hadn’t been able to get South Carolina over the hump. This year was looking like the familiar story as a huge win over Alabama was followed by a terrible loss at Kentucky. After being blown out at home against Arkansas, it appeared the Gamecocks had nothing.

Then the light went on. They embarrassed Florida. They ran over an overmatched Troy team. They dismantled their in-state rival Clemson. Now, they stroll into Atlanta brimming with confidence and Spurrier is already in classic form. At his press conference this week, he said the SEC title game is the biggest game in college football and the biggest stage. He wasn’t saying that for his team. He was saying that to get under Auburn’s skin. He wants to put even more pressure on them. Would you pick against Steve Spurrier with the SEC title on the line?

5 Tyrod Taylor
Did you know that with a win Saturday, Tyrod Taylor will go to this third BCS bowl game? There are very few quarterbacks in the history of college football that can match that for their careers. But do you ever hear about Taylor as one of the best QBs in the country? Taylor was named this year’s ACC Offensive Player of the Year – did anyone notice? It’s probably not fair to Taylor, who played tremendously in the opening loss to Boise State, but his career has been defined by his inability to lead Virginia Tech into national championship contention. With a win on Saturday night, though, I think the Hokie faithful will be quite alright with Taylor’s career since it would include an amazing three conference titles in four years. Tyrod Taylor is a winner. Tyrod Taylor deserves to go out on South Beach for another Orange Bowl.

4 Zach Frazer
The UConn quarterback has had a very interesting college career. It started at Notre Dame but he quickly transferred, realizing that Charlie Weis would never play him over Jimmy Clausen. He came to UConn with high expectations but injures derailed him as did the emergence of backup QB Cody Endres. Last year, Frazer was benched for Endres until Endres hurt himself. He then proceeded to lead UConn to four straight victories to end the season, including a win at Notre Dame and a bowl win over South Carolina.

This year, expectations were sky high for Frazer and he played awful in September. Benched again for Endres, he again returned as the starter following the expulsion of Endres for three failed drug tests. And again he’s lead UConn to four straight victories. With one win Saturday night, Frazer will have eventually fulfilled his potential and led a team to a BCS bowl. Coincidentally, that would be one more BCS bowl than Jimmy Clausen ever played in.

3 Greg Schiano
It’s probably not entirely fair in the wake of the Eric LeGrand tragedy but the Rutgers faithful is not very happy. Since a stunning win over UConn for its lone Big East win, the Rutgers program has fallen on its face. The poor losses mounted but reaching a boiling point last Friday, when a half-full stadium watched Rutgers get steamrolled by a 6-6 Louisville team that shouldn’t have been that dominant. The questions began – what happened to a program that just four years ago was a legitimate national title contender in late Thanksgiving? This week, Rutgers travels to Morgantown for what appears to be an epic beatdown at the hands of a motivated West Virginia team clinging to BCS dreams. Rutgers doesn’t need to win Saturday, though that would help. They do need to put up a fight. Another blowout loss would set the program back years and likely decimate recruiting efforts for the next year.

2 Washington
How many times has Washington been on the list? Their battle to reach six wins and bowl eligibility has been epic. There have been incredible last-second wins against USC and Oregon State. There have been atrocious losses to Arizona and Stanford. Despite the injuries and subsequent poor play of Jake Locker, Washington stands at 5-6 and poised to make its first bowl game since 2002. Yes, Washington hasn’t been to a bowl in nearly a decade. Am I the only one who finds that mind-blowing? With one win over its arch rival, Washington can shake that label and Jake Locker can complete his career the way he wants to – in a bowl game. How can you not be rooting for Washington? Oh, yea, I guess you could be a Washington State fan, who at 2-9 has actually improved this year too.

1 Cam Newton
It’s sort of a no-brainer about which player has the most on the line this weekend, no? Sure, Newton probably has the Heisman Trophy locked up and that’s a great personal accomplishment. But in the wake of the allegations, the eligibility questions and the general sketchiness around his whole situation, a win is necessary this weekend. He needs to lead Auburn to the national title game. Period, end of story. If he loses, history will look at Cam Newton’s run through the SEC a lot differently than if he wins. A loss Saturday almost renders the previous 12 games irrelevant. That’s why Cam Newton is at the crossroads more than anyone else this weekend.

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UConn: The Best Story No One Wants To Hear

2010-12-01T16:12:00.000-05:00

By late Saturday, one of the most remarkable stories in the history of major college football could be complete. Yet, most of the country will be rooting against it. For three-plus hours in Tampa Saturday night, the best and the worst of college football will converge, simultaneously exemplifying why we love this sport so much and why it can be so incredibly frustrating at times.

If the University of Connecticut football team can beat the University of South Florida, the Huskies will win the Big East and head to a BCS bowl, either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl. Within the confines of Connecticut, it would be the greatest moment ever. For those outside of the state, it’s an indication of how evil the BCS is and how it should be abolished.

Oh, the perils of being a college football fan.

UConn’s improbable and remarkable story begins roughly 20 years ago when former athletic director Lew Perkins astutely surmised that college athletics would eventually be ruled by football. As crazy as it seems now, football was not the Goliath it is today. Thanks to horrible television contracts and archaic notions that television would be bad for attendance, there were still only a handful of games on each Saturday.

Perkins wasn’t looking for UConn to become Michigan or Texas in football. He wanted to protect the university’s most important athletic assets – men’s and women’s basketball. Thanks to a confluence of events, including Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots flirting with Hartford, UConn got its stadium funded and by August 2003, it was ready to open.

As a recent college graduate headed back home in the summer of 2003, all I knew about UConn football was they always seemed to cover 40+ point spreads and my father would not stop talking about how much he liked Coach Randy Edsall. Searching for a birthday gift for the old man, I decided on two tickets to UConn’s home opener for the robust cost of $25 each – shockingly, the same amount they cost now.

Upon arriving at the Rent for the first time, I remarked to my Dad – “Holy shit, this is a real stadium.” He laughed, smiled, told me I shouldn’t swear and said, “I told you they were playing real football here.” UConn proceeded to pound Indiana that day. By the 2004 home opener, we had season tickets as did four of my close friends and it was the start of something special.

For most college football fans, their team and their fandom is built on a mountain of tradition. UConn had none. They had been playing football in Storrs for a century but, to put it mildly, the team always sucked. They weren’t just a I-AA team – they were a bad I-AA team.

As UConn prepared to enter the Big East, all hell broke loose. Miami and Boston College bolted for the ACC. Syracuse was going to, but was replaced by Virginia Tech. In came Cincinnati, South Florida and Louisville. Whether or not the Big East would even exist became a huge topic of conversation in Connecticut. Did we, as taxpayers, waste a ton of money? UConn jumped in the Big East a year earlier than it was supposed to in 2004, played decent and made a bowl game. They failed to in 2005 and 2006 but shared the Big East crown in 2007 and produced Donald Brown, if not a great team, in 2008.

But 2009 would provide UConn with a year unlike just about any other team in the history of sports has had to face. With its BCS hopes still alive and the team seemingly rounding into shape, one of its leaders, Jasper Howard, was senselessly murdered. I had the misfortune of working the day after at the NBC Connecticut Health & Wellness Festival for the National MS Society in downtown Hartford. It’s all anyone could talk about. “Did you hear?” “Can you believe it?” “It happened on campus!”

The next month was trying. The UConn campus rallied around the football team but the team lost in painfully brutal fashion, in succession, to West Virginia, Rutgers and Cincinnati. At 4-5 with a trip to Notre Dame looming, it looked like the UConn football program was stuck in neutral, its once-promising season ruined by tragedy.

Instead, UConn pulled out a double-overtime thriller of a victory that allowed the echoes traveling through Notre Dame Stadium to say “UCONN!” instead of pulling for the Irish. I don’t know if I’ve ever been happier after a victory. My father and the four aforementioned friends made the trek to South Bend – oh by the way, my dad is a Notre Dame alum as is my uncle, who lives there and let us crash. The Notre Dame fans were overly gracious in defeat, likely knowing how much it meant to us and how it likely meant the end of the Charlie Weis era. The year ended with four straight victories and our BCS dreams burned bright for nine solid months.

Then Denard Robinson happened. Then Jordan Todman was injured. Then our starting quarterback was kicked off the team for failing three drug tests. Then people started calling for Edsall to be fired. Then UConn laid the worst egg in its I-A history by putting up no points in a lifeless loss to Louisville. The season was effectively over before it ever began. With Pitt rolling through the early part of its Big East schedule, it seemed UConn would only be lucky to make a bowl game and the season would be labeled a disappointment no matter what.

On a Friday night in late October, West Virginia showed up to town and the locals were wary. We joked in the tailgate about how long we’d last in the stadium – West Virginia with Pat White had a history of clearing out the stadium well before the final whistle. When the Mountaineers went up early, just about all hope was lost.

But the game wore on and UConn never wavered. In a fourth quarter that set offensive football back 100 years, UConn forced overtime. One goal line fumble later, followed by a winning field goal, and we were storming the field like we had won the national championship. A “B-C-S” chant started up on the field that night, though most involved seemed to be laughing. We wouldn’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl but at least we finally beat West Virginia.

Another “B-C-S” chant started up Saturday afternoon around 3:30 p.m. in the Rent but it was far more serious. With a solid, convincing win over Cincinnati, UConn is now poised one win away from playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl! New Year’s night! Against Oklahoma or Nebraska! These are statements that would literally have blown my mind just five years ago. Now, we’re on the precipice and no one wants us here.

If you’ve watched ESPN or read about college football anywhere, you’re probably aware of the venom aimed at UConn. They don’t deserve the bid. The Big East doesn’t deserve a bid. The Big East doesn’t play good football. On and on and on it goes and, in true college football fashion, it has no basis in reality.

Everyone agreed to the rules before the season started – six conferences get automatic berths. There are no qualifiers. You win your conference and you’re in. Just like when a crappy Stanford team ranked #23 won the Pac-10 in 1999. Just like when the ACC has sent a four-loss team to the BCS a remarkable three times. Just like in 2004, when a 10-1 Cal team was shut out of the BCS because an average Michigan team won the Big Ten despite getting blown out by a 7-4 Ohio State team to finish the season.

Therein lies college football’s biggest problem – it doesn’t matter if you have the right helmet on. Florida State has been the BCS twice with four losses but no one cares, that’s Florida State. Michigan in 2004? By gawd, that’s Michigan, of course they get to go. Even within this year’s Big East discussion, the UConn hate is followed by, “It’d be okay if West Virginia went.” We beat West Virginia!

By late Saturday night, aided by being incredibly unsober, I was pissed off at my television and college football, my favorite sport. Why are they saying that about my team? Why aren’t we worthy? Since when did Craig James’ opinion have any basis on who wins the Big East conference?

When I woke up Sunday morning, though, I was at peace. Maybe I have been listening to Kanye’s new album too much but, at the end of the day, who cares what other people have to say? Robert Smith can blow smoke until his face turns blue – UConn is still going to the Fiesta Bowl with a win. Kirk Herbstreit – who picked UConn to win the Big East in the preseason – can badmouth the Huskies all he wants. You want to make new rules for the BCS, Brian Griese? Tough titties, you can’t.

At first, I wanted UConn to win against USF Saturday night to shove it in the face of all the so-called “experts” who seem to take great pride in beating up on UConn and the Big East. Quick PS guys – the Big East has had national championship contenders in November in 2006, 2007 and 2009. The ACC hasn’t had one since 2000. Deal with that.

But I realized quickly that was selfish and petty. I want UConn to beat USF for the program. I want them to win for Jasper Howard’s family, who was on hand for Senior Day. I want them to win for Dan Orlovsky, whose own father stopped talking to him for picking UConn over Purdue. I want them to win for every fan who sat through snow, wind, rain and ice over the years to cheer on the Huskies. I want them to win to prove that we play a little football in the Northeast. I want them to win for a state that suffers from an inferiority complex too much. I want them to win for my dad, who’s been to every home game since the place opened save for the one the day before his mother died. I want them to win for my friends, who bought season tickets sight unseen because they trusted me. I want them to win because, dammit, I love UConn.

Most importantly, I want them to win because this year’s roster deserves it. The death of a teammate, the expulsion of two starters, the numerous injuries, the doubters – the list of reasons why they should’ve folded their cards two months is lengthy. But they didn’t.

We shouldn’t be hammering the Huskies, we should be praising them from coast to coast.

Assuming they win, of course.

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Top 25: Auburn, Oregon and TCU still lead the way

2010-12-01T10:12:00.000-05:00

It should surprise no one that this past weekend did a lot to sort out the Top 25 and the BCS. We’ve lost Boise State as a national title contender. Oklahoma State, North Carolina State and Michigan State can think about what could’ve been. And Stanford, TCU and Wisconsin can do jigs of joy because the BCS standings came out the right way for them.

For me, what I’ll take from this week is the sheer amount of fantastic football. If the early part of November lacked that certain something, it was because all the good football was being squeezed into three glorious days. We don’t have the mega-showdown coming up this weekend that we had the past two years thanks to Alabama/Florida, but that doesn’t mean Saturday will be void of excitement. There’s still a lot left to be determined.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that wild and crazy things happen on the first Saturday in December. And those who forget history….well you know how that goes.

25 Connecticut (7-4)
Last week: NR
Before I get to UConn, I am extremely disappointed with the coverage of the Big East’s down year this year. It’s not exactly Earth-shattering news that the Big East sucks this year. But it’s being framed as if the Big East has been terrible for decades and the BCS cartel only gives the Big East an automatic bid to mess with Boise State. Last year, Cincinnati was undefeated and ranked #3 in the final regular season poll. In 2007, West Virginia was playing for a BCS title game berth in its finale against Pitt. In 2006, there were three Big East teams in the top 10. In fact, based on the BCS criteria, the ACC thanks to not having a November national title contender since 2000, is closer to losing its bid than the Big East. Just remember that. They needed TCU to beef up the football side of things but to act like the Big East was another version of the MAC is pretty insulting.

As for UConn, they deserve to be ranked based on how they’ve played the past month. If Jordan Todman is healthy, this team could play with anybody. I don’t think they’d beat anybody, but they could give anybody a game. Coach Randy Edsall has basically admitting he handled the early season BCS & Top 25 hype poorly and outside distractions didn’t help. But this UConn team is finally playing like the team they were predicted to be. They’re only one game away from the BCS and I can’t wait for Saturday.

24 Mississippi State (8-4)
Last week: 24
There’s no other way to described Mississippi State’s season other than resounding success. This was a team that was hoping to get to a bowl. Instead, they proved themselves to be a legit Top 25 team and one that took two top ten teams – Auburn and Arkansas – down to the wire at home. They’ll get a very nice bowl game, likely the Chick-fil-a Bowl, and it will be up to them to build on this success for next year.

23 West Virginia (8-3)
Last week: NR
The win against Pittsburgh Friday just encapsulated why Mountaineer fans are so frustrated with Bill Stewart. That team, playing like that, would’ve beaten everyone on their schedule, including LSU. Look at their three losses. A game at UConn where they lost four fumbles, including one at the goal line in overtime. A home game against Syracuse, again, with lots of fumbles and missed opportunities galore. Even the loss at LSU, West Virginia spent the whole second half in LSU territory and failed to get the go-ahead score. It’s tough to be 8-3 when you conceivably could be 11-0.

22 Northern Illinois (10-2)
Last week: 22
195-54. That’s the combined score of the last three victories for Northern Illinois. Wow. They have become an offensive juggernaut and easily the best team in the MAC. If they prove so at the MAC Championship Game, let’s hope the Huskies find a suitable opponent – maybe Boise State on the blue turf? – to showcase their stuff. Because beating a Sun Belt team in Detroit just wouldn’t be right for their season.

21 Florida State (9-3)
Last week: 23
I guess the decision to fire Bobby Bowden is going over better now in Tallahassee? The fact was the program had slipped during Bowden’s final years, due mainly to Papa Bowden’s loyalty and, some would say, stubbornness in retaining underachieving coordinators and assistants. The program isn’t slipping anymore. Jimbo Fisher has the Seminoles finally going in the right direction after a decade of starts and stops. And you wonder why Randy Shannon got canned? If Florida State’s moving in the right direction, Miami better too. Heck, Urban Meyer may want to get his ship righted very quickly too.

20 Utah (10-2)
Last week: 21
It wasn’t the best finish to the season but nail-biting wins over San Diego State and BYU assured Utah of a Top 25 ranking going into bowl season and a nice building block for its entry into the Pac-12. I don’t think this team was ever a legit national title contender so it’ll be interesting to see how it reacts to losing four or five games next year. It will be very interesting to see if Utah can gain momentum by entering a BCS conference or if it will get chewed up and spit out by playing a rigorous conference schedule that begins with a date at USC. A little different conference opponent than UNLV.

19 Alabama (9-3)
Last week: 12
At the end of the day, who did Alabama really beat? Arkansas. And that’s it. It had three other games against teams ranked in the top 20 and they lost all of them. The loss against Auburn, obviously, will sting the most because they flat gave that game away thanks to a combination of head-scratching coaching decisions and a baffling inability to run the ball when it mattered most. A lot of people have blamed Alabama’s woes on its defense but the offense was the problem this year and I don’t think anyone can really figure it out. Wasn’t this offense supposed to be better than last year’s? With the exception of the first half against South Carolina, the defense did its job. Even against Auburn, they only gave up 28 points to a team that was regularly pushing 50. Its offense blew that game.

18 South Carolina (9-3)
Last week: 19
I was very, very impressed with South Carolina in its destruction of Clemson Saturday night. So often, we see teams headed for conference title games sleepwalk through rivalry games – see Georgia Tech and Clemson both losing prior to last year’s ACC title game. But the great teams see the rivalry game as another opportunity to make a statement – see Florida the last two years against Florida State. South Carolina fell in the latter category and it makes me really believe that Spurrier has his team poised for the upset. It’s rather remarkable how they’ve gone on an absolute tear after that baffling home blowout to Arkansas. I think this team is peaking.

17 Missouri (10-2)
Last week: 17
Aside from a win over Oklahoma, Missouri’s season really didn’t do much for me. They lost to a couple teams that were better than them. They beat a lot of teams that weren’t very good. And they beat Oklahoma like a drum at home. Unfortunately, their reward for their great season, at this point, looks like a 6-6 Washington team in the Holiday Bowl. Missouri had another very good season but, at some point, they need to make the leap and finish the year in the top 10, not just visit it during October.

16 Texas A&M (9-3)
Last week: 18
It’s amazing what happens when you eliminate five turnovers a game. Texas A&M showed the country in its September loss to Oklahoma State that they could play with anybody if they just avoided turnovers. One quarterback change later, A&M had solved its turnover problem and suddenly they couldn’t be beat. Yes, it helped to get Nebraska and Oklahoma at home, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a team that had a better November. Mike Sherman obviously saved his job – now is A&M a one-year wonder or back to contending on an annual basis?

15 Oklahoma State (10-2)
Last week: 9
This was not a good week for Oklahoma State. For the second time in three years, Oklahoma showed up with ESPN Gameday in tow for Bedlam and, for the second time in three years, Okie State couldn’t beat their big brother. Forget Michigan State and its inferiority complex, Oklahoma State is now the team that consistently can’t win its own state. Lou Holtz – yes, I know this is going to sound strange – made an excellent point late Saturday night: Oklahoma played like they knew they were going to win. The Sooners never seemed afraid they were going to lose and they certainly weren’t going to play with trepidation. The moment almost seemed too big for Okie State and Mike Gundy has to, much like Gary Pinkel at Missouri, get his team to believe they can beat elite teams when it matters. Not just in October.

14 Nebraska (10-2)
Last week: 15
I’m not sure what to make of this year’s Nebraska team and I guess we’re not going to find out what they’re all about until Saturday night against Oklahoma. The Colorado win was nice but there is an odd cloud of uncertainty hanging over the program following the Bo Pelini/Taylor Martinez situation following the Texas A&M loss. It’s just baffling how good they can look one week and then look so incredibly average in losses to A&M and Texas. I have a funny feeling that Nebraska’s offseason, move to the Big Ten and all, is going to be very news-worthy.

13 LSU (10-2)
Last week: 7
Well, it finally happened. LSU finally met a team that wasn’t going to give them the game late. All year, LSU had kept it close with defense and found a way to win the fourth quarter through Les Miles magic. Arkansas wasn’t having that and they were clearly the superior team. It’s sort of funny, even though it was a one-score final, I stopped watching in the second half because I knew the outcome. Arkansas was better and they were going to win. No disrespect to LSU, they’re a heckuva team, they just weren’t as good as Arkansas was Saturday.

12 Oklahoma (10-2)
Last week: 16
You have to give Bob Stoops a ton of credit for his coaching job this season. Oklahoma played one of the most challenging non-conference slates in the country, including games against 9-3 Florida State and 8-4 Air Force, and managed through a conference slate where they played three other ranked teams and Texas. This wasn’t a vintage Oklahoma team at all, maybe on offense but its defense was atrocious. Yet, here were are leading up to the first week of December and, surprise, surprise, Oklahoma is again playing for the Big XII title. Texas may lead the Big XII off the field thanks to its money, but the Sooners have been the conference’s on-the-field leader for more than a decade and it doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.

11 Virginia Tech (10-2)
Last week: 11
It’s almost insane that they lost to James Madison. It’s one thing when Michigan loses to the defending FCS champion. But Virginia Tech losing to an average FCS team? It will never make sense. At least those James Madison players can likely tell their grandkids they beat a team who played in the Orange Bowl. It’ll be interesting to see if the Orange Bowl matches Virginia Tech up with top 5 Stanford or the Big East champion, provided they win Saturday. They should have a tremendous home field advantage in Charlotte.

10 Nevada (11-1)
Last week: 14
Okay, it’s frankly absurd and almost criminal that Nevada is ranked so low in the major polls. Especially considering how far behind Boise State they are – they just beat Boise State! Yes, Boise State is probably a better team. But Nevada won the game on the field and they deserve to be treated as such. If you stayed up til 2:30 a.m. to watch that game, you not only witnessed the most exciting game of the college football season, you saw a great game between two great teams. If Nevada were to play Alabama tomorrow at a neutral site, I’d pick Nevada. I’d pick Nevada over just about any team I have ranked behind it. Nevada isn’t just a good team that picked on WAC competition – this is a damn good football team and I hope they get to prove themselves in a nice bowl game. Although it really doesn’t matter, their win over Boise should echo throughout the decades in Reno.

9 Michigan State (11-1)
Last week: 10
I want to feel bad for Michigan State about getting left out of the BCS and, really, it’s the Big Ten’s fault. If Michigan State had played Ohio State, the conference would only have two one-loss teams, a legit champion and no worries about a team being left out. Instead, Michigan State draws the short stick and gets left out. Do you think they would beat Ohio State if they played tomorrow? I don’t. Michigan State lived a charmed life this year and I really wish I had watched their game against Wisconsin in more detail so I could figure out how the heck they won that game.

8 Ohio State (11-1)
Last week: 8
There’s no way around it – the Big Ten wasn’t very good this year. Yes, they had three good teams at the top but it dropped off a cliff after that, Iowa included. Ohio State lost to one of the three good teams and didn’t play the other. The Buckeyes best win? Uhh, 7-5 Iowa? 7-5 Michigan? 7-5 Miami? I do think they’d beat Michigan State but I don’t think they’d beat Arkansas. And I really, really don’t think they’d beat Boise State. I probably have them ranked too high but 11-1 is a nice looking record.

7 Arkansas (10-2)
Last week: 13
You could see the Razorback train picking up steam and it absolutely rolled through November, knocking off South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU in succession. It was a very, very impressive finish to a year that also included a victory over Texas A&M. Do you think Ryan Mallet wishes he could go back and take back those interceptions against Alabama? Do you think Bobby Petrino wishes he had another shot at Auburn? For now, the Razorbacks will root for Auburn and hope to end up in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. They deserve it.

6 Boise State (10-1)
Last week: 1
I toyed with keeping Boise State at #4 but Stanford and Wisconsin also only sport losses on the road to top 10 teams. Oddly, Boise State may have the best singular win in defeating Virginia Tech but the rest of the resume was obviously lacking. It’s definitely not fair to Boise State that they will fall so far down the bowl totem pole but they knew they had to win ‘em all just to make a BCS game. And let’s face it, they should’ve won that Nevada game well before their kicker blew two easy ones. If you’re a BCS-caliber team, you don’t blow a 24-7 third quarter lead against anybody. At the end of the day, it was Boise’s defense, or lack thereof in the second half, that cost them so much.

5 Stanford (11-1)
Last week: 6
I guess Stanford is an alright football team…but are they really great? If you look at Stanford’s schedule, and by proxy the Pac-10, did they really play a tougher slate than Boise State and TCU? Boise State played two top 15 teams in Nevada and Virginia Tech. Stanford, Wisconsin and Oregon played one, TCU played none. What’s Stanford’s best win? 7-4 Arizona? 7-5 Notre Dame? The fact is the Pac-10 was dreadful this year. I’m not saying this to doubt how good Stanford is, I’m just pointing out their strength of schedule is severely lacking.

4 Wisconsin (11-1)
Last week: 5
If both Oregon and Auburn lose this week, I think the title game should be Wisconsin vs. TCU. TCU, in my opinion, is a lock for the title game if either team ahead of them loses. But if both lose, it’s going to open Pandora’s box but I think it’s fairly simple. Wisconsin would be the best one-loss team, even ahead of Auburn. Oregon is a non-starter if they lose due to the weakness of the Pac-10. There’s going to be some movement to keep 1-loss Auburn in the mix since they beat so many good SEC teams. True, but they wouldn’t have won their conference and would’ve lost to a team that lost to Kentucky. Yes, 6-6 Kentucky beat South Carolina.

Besides, how many points would Wisconsin put up on that Auburn defense? 70? 80? 100? If Auburn and Oregon falter, Wisconsin deserves a shot at the title. Will that happen? No, because Oregon’s not losing. But still, it’s food for though.

3 TCU (12-0)
Last week: 4
I enjoyed going back to last week’s Top 25 column to read my lengthy explanation about why I dropped TCU to fourth and why they should be behind Boise State. Guess that was rendered rather irrelevant. I’m already disappointed that some analysts are already banging the “anyone by TCU” drum if Oregon and Auburn lose. If it’s Auburn, I can at least see some validity to keeping them above TCU. But if Oregon loses? Come on. TCU hasn’t lost a game and has played a schedule comparable to the other top 1-loss teams. In fact, if you really wanted to dissect schedules and overanalyze, Boise State should probably be the 1-loss team most deserving of a national title spot. Hopefully, we can avoid BCS chaos for one season and have a clean national title game. I know, I know, a fantasy.

2 Oregon (11-0)
Last week: 3
It’s all come down to this – one win over its biggest rival and Oregon gets to play for its first national title. I had a feeling Oregon State wasn’t going to show up last week to play Stanford and I was right. Oregon better be ready because you know Oregon State is going to be playing this game like it’s the Super Bowl. Not that it’s going to matter but Oregon should be prepared anyway. How impressive did Oregon look in the second half when they completely wore down Arizona? It was like an oncoming tidal wave and Arizona could nothing about it.

1 Auburn (12-0)
Last week: 2
What can you say? How many teams come back from that hole against Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium? Not many. Cam Newton secured the Heisman. Auburn is one win away from the national championship game. Gene Chizik is a genius. Gus Malzahn is the hottest name in coaching.

Yet, a dream season is shrouded in doubt. And how sad would it be if Auburn’s 2010 team illegally won a national title six years after USC stole one from….Auburn.

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The Picks For The Best Weekend Of The Year

2010-11-24T10:37:00.000-05:00

Lines come from Bodog.com as of Friday morning. Check out TV listings in your area at Matt Sarz Sports or LSU Football.

Last week: 10-4-1
Best pick: 8-3
Overall: 88-84-3

Last week’s Worst Pick: Finally, I have climbed back over .500 with two consecutive 10-win weeks. The Bubble Screen is a championship team and we’re rounding into form. Thankfully, there’s not too much to pick from for Worst Pick but taking Michigan getting 4.5 would probably qualify as the worst. Though it looked for a brief moment in the third quarter that Denard Robinson was going to pull a rabbit out of his hat, it was not to be.

TEXAS +3.5 over Texas A&M, 8 p.m., Thursday
Why can’t I quit you Texas? I know you’re awful but I keep getting suckered in by the iconic helmet, the burnt orange and the fact my index finger and pinky finger really enjoy making the Longhorn. Texas A&M showed me absolutely nothing last week in a really weak victory over Nebraska. Were the Aggies looking ahead to Texas? Texas has been consistently dreadful since September but a big win over its hot rival to send itself to a bowl game would ease a lot of that pain. It helps my pick that the game is in Austin.

West Virginia +3 over PITTSBURGH, Noon, Friday
Sometimes you have to make a pick based on what you want to happen. As a UConn fan, I really, really want Pitt to lose. I think this game is a toss-up anyway between two teams that have generally underperformed all year. However, the West Virginia defense is the only unit in this game that has exceeded expectations and I look for that to be the difference. Pitt is only effective if they can run the ball to set up the deep passes to stud WR Jonathan Baldwin. I’m looking for another low-scoring Backyard Brawl, as has been typical in this series for a few years now, and a late West Virginia win. I hope.

Smu PICK over EAST CAROLINA, 2 p.m., Friday
I just had to put this here because SMU can win its Conference USA division and play for its first conference title in three decades. East Carolina is still sort of alive for its division, but needs a lot of help. They also have no defense. SMU will use the extra motivation to pull out a big win on the road.

Auburn +4.5 over ALABAMA, 2:30 p.m., Friday
Is this the game of the year? Does it get any bigger than this? Does it get any better than this? There’s a reason why Friday is the best football day of the year. Anyway, this game hinges on what type of game develops. Is Auburn able to turn it into the up and down track meet they want it to be and play the same style of game that ran Arkansas and Georgia out of the building. Or is Alabama, like Mississippi State and LSU before it, able to slow the game down and produce a final score like 24-17?

My opinion is a track meet. Alabama’s defense has been its Achilles heel all year and they haven’t shown enough to me to prove things have changed all that dramatically. Yes, they might be better. But they would need to be ‘best defense in the country’ better to slow down Cam Newton. I’m also more than a little worried that every expert is both labeling Alabama the underdog and picking them to win. If everyone picks them – and they’re favored by more than a field goal – they aren’t the underdog. No, #2 and undefeated Auburn is the underdog and they will relish that role. Besides, Auburn isn’t the undefeated team losing on Friday.

Ucla +13 over ARIZONA STATE, 3:30 p.m., Friday
I know that UCLA isn’t a very good team and they produce a complete stinker last time out against Washington, but I’m sensing a big performance looming from them. That seems to be the UCLA way, lie down like dogs one week and come out like pit bulls the next. At 4-6, UCLA needs to win this one and then beat USC next week to become bowl eligible. They’re winning this game. Arizona State, on the other hand, is done at 4-6 since it has beaten two FCS teams and it looks like coach Dennis Erickson is on his way to the unemployment line. I always like the motivated team when two crappy 4-6 teams get it on.

Arizona +20 over OREGON, 7 p.m., Friday
UPSET OF THE YEAR! So far this year, we have failed to have a true, mind-blowing upset. All of the top upsets this year have come on the road against good teams. Think Alabama losing to South Carolina or Oklahoma losing to Missouri. We haven’t had the shocker yet. Alabama winning at home over Auburn? Not a shocker. Nevada winning at home against Boise? Closer, but not a complete shocker. A limping, stumbling Arizona team winning in Autzen Stadium? There we go.

I’m basing this pick on nothing I’ve seen on the field. If anything, all signs are pointing toward an Oregon blowout. They’re mad about the weak performance against Cal. It’s their last home game of the season. Arizona was destroyed by Stanford. They could defend their home turf against USC. Yet, that’s why I’m picking Arizona to not only cover but to win. When all signs are pointing one way, it’s usually a sign something else is going to happen. I drove the Arizona bandwagon for the first two months of the season and I’m kicking the tires to see if the ol’ gal has anything left. It does.

Boise State -14 over NEVADA, 10:15 p.m., Friday
Picking Boise State these past two Fridays has been a joy, watching them cover 30+ point spreads by multiple touchdowns and generally destroying its competition. Nevada is a very, very good football team and has given Boise plenty of fits over the years in exciting games. There’s a difference with this year’s game – Boise can play defense but Nevada still can’t. I’d be surprised if this is even a game at midnight. At some point, people may realize Boise State is the best team in the country. I just hope it doesn’t happen too late.

OHIO STATE -17 over Michigan, Noon, Saturday
The Big Ten conference title will finally be decided on Saturday and this would be an opportune moment for Michigan to rise up. I’m not seeing it. Michigan refuses to play defense and have squandered so many incredible performances by Denard Robinson this year. What makes you think a road game in Columbus, where the Wolverines haven’t won since 2000, is going to be any different? I’m looking at a big Ohio State blowout and more questions about whether Rich Rodriguez is actually the man for Michigan.

UCONN -1.5 over Cincinnati, Noon, Saturday
Well did you expect me to pick against my team? UConn put together its finest defensive performance of the year last week against an admittedly awful offensive team in Syracuse. Still, the Orange weren’t scoring a touchdown if they had played that game til Tuesday. For Cincinnati, last week was a revelation as the Bearcats dropped a ridiculous 69 points on Rutgers and it looked like Brian Kelly had come to lead the team back to a BCS bowl.

As for this game, there are two things playing in UConn’s favor, besides me rooting them on. For starters, UConn will be playing for the Big East’s BCS bid regardless of what happens Friday but if West Virginia wins, they will be in control of their own destiny. Secondly, it’s going to be a cold, windy, miserable November afternoon in beautiful East Hartford, Connecticut. UConn hasn’t lost at home this year. And they won’t.

PENN STATE +2 over Michigan State, Noon, Saturday
It wouldn’t make sense for Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin to all win Saturday. It would just seem so wrong for the BCS standings to determine who plays in the Rose Bowl. I know we live in a changing world but that’s too much for me dammit! Ahem, moving on. Michigan State has been living a charmed life all season and, at some point, the luck has to run out. Penn State, at home, with Joe Paterno announcing he’s coming back in 2011 is going to provide the Nittany Lions with an emotional boost to put them over the top. And Sparty will always be Sparty and I can never trust them in a big game.

FLORIDA STATE -3 over Florida, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
My, how things have changed in the Sunshine State. A year ago, this game served as the final nail in Bobby Bowden’s coaching coffin and the triumphant ride off into the sunset for Tim Tebow. A year later, Florida is reeling while Florida State is having one of its best seasons in a decade – sad, but true – and still very much alive for a BCS berth. Even though this game means nothing in the big picture, it means so much to Florida State. They are the ones trying to change the culture and ascend back to the state of Florida’s throne. They blew out Miami. They’re going to blow out Florida. The return to glory of Florida State will be one of Saturday’s big stories, especially if…

North Carolina State -2.5 over MARYLAND, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
It’s not going to happen. Florida State needs Maryland to pull off the upset to clear a path to the ACC title game. NC State, of course, controls its own destiny and they’re not going to gag it away. I know there is going to be a ton of pressure on NC State but they have an ace in the hole – Maryland isn’t very good.

Washington +7 over CALIFORNIA, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Only in college football could a game between a 4-6 team and a 5-6 team mean so much. For 5-6 Cal, they desperately need a win to become bowl eligible after taking the #1 team to the limit and getting blasted by Stanford. For 4-6 Washington, they are two wins from its first bowl berth in years. With improved but still woeful Washington State up next week in the Apple Cup, things would look for Washington with a win.

This game is truly Jake Locker’s last stand at Washington – until next week. This game is incredibly important for Washington. The program has steadily been making progress since the abyss of the Tyrone Willingham era. It needs a bowl game. It played a tough schedule this year. It’s played teams tough. It had a nice win at USC. It really, really needs to win this game. It needs to prove that it’s no longer a Pac-10 also-ran but a program that is actually on the rise. I believe they get the job the done as questions begin to swirl about Jeff Tedford’s coaching acumen.

ARKANSAS -4 over Lsu, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
I have to admit I’m a little disappointed Ole Miss ran wild on LSU last week because it dramatically changed the line in this game. LSU is the top-ranked one-loss team and it’s a four-point underdog? That doesn’t happen if Ole Miss doesn’t roll up 36 points. It doesn’t matter – Arkansas is going to win this game. Ryan Mallet is continuing to fire, the running game has emerged and the offense is an unstoppable juggernaut. Throw in the fact that Arkansas could be playing for its first BCS bowl bid if Alabama loses and the fact Bobby Petrino wants to make a statement to the rest of the SEC his program is for real, I’m looking for Arkansas to drop the hammer on the Mad Hatter.

NEW MEXICO +44 over Tcu, 4 p.m., Saturday
TCU knows it needs to win by 50, at least. That’s the absolute worst mindset for a team. TCU is going to come out and try to score 50 points on its first drive. It will make a mistake or two, maybe even give up a New Mexico touchdown and panic will set in briefly. TCU will win going away in the second half, but it’ll be a 40-10 type score as opposed to a 62-0 type score.

STANFORD -14 over Oregon State, 7:30 p.m., Saturday
Oregon State came up with a huge performance last week against USC and they need to beat Stanford or Oregon to become bowl eligible. Stanford is coming off of a destruction of Cal and needs a win to remain in the hunt for a BCS bid, however unlikely that may be. I think Oregon State is already looking ahead to the Civil War against Oregon next week. Stanford is a finely tuned machine humming on all cylinders at this point. Since it’s likely Andrew Luck’s last home game, I’m picturing one last virtuoso performance before heading on to play on Sundays.

Georgia Tech +13 over GEORGIA, 7:45 p.m., Saturday
I know Georgia Tech isn’t very good this year and it’s without its starting quarterback. But losing by two touchdowns to its biggest rival, who happens to be 5-6? That seems like a stretch. I’m going against one of my gambling rules by picking an underdog I think is going to lose. Georgia wins a close one.

Oklahoma +3 over OKLAHOMA STATE, 8 p.m., Saturday
It’s Saturday Night’s Main Event: Bedlam. Everything about this game makes you think Oklahoma State is going to win. Their first Big XII South division crown is on the line. Their first 11-win season in school history. Their first win over Oklahoma in nearly a decade. They have a better team, they have a better offense and they get the Sooners in their place.

Still, I can’t shake the feeling that the moment is going to be too big for an Oklahoma State team that is still learning how to play winning football. If you saw them last week, you saw a team basically sleepwalk through the first quarter against Kansas before turning it on. It was the sign of a very talented team, but also a team that hasn’t quite figured it out yet. If you’ve watched Oklahoma dismantle Texas Tech and Baylor the last two weeks, you’ve watched a team that has figured it out.

And you just know that the last Big XII title game should feature Oklahoma playing Nebraska in Dallas to really hammer home how far astray that league went.

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Boise State, Oklahoma State, NC State and SMU Can Make History

2010-11-23T16:26:00.000-05:00

Every Wednesday (oooh, a Tuesday this week), I take a trip to The Crossroads to visit the teams, players, coaches, conferences and announcers that have reach a turning point in their season.

There’s no bad way to sugarcoat it – this is the best college football weekend of the year. Starting tonight with Miami, Ohio and Temple and going until late Saturday night, almost every game you will watch will impact a bowl berth, a conference championship, the Heisman Trophy, the BCS or the national title. That’s not hyperbole, that’s fact.

So this week, the Crossroads is visited by team who desperately need a win. Sure, teams like Oregon and Auburn want to win this weekend but their seasons are destroyed – both would likely still play in BCS bowls. No, this week’s edition of the Crossroads is about the teams that absolutely need to win.

10 West Virginia and Pittsburgh
It hasn’t been the prettiest year for the Big East and the barbs are already coming from all directions. We’ll forget that a Big East team was ranked #3 at the end of last year’s regular season or that the revamped conference has been 3-2 in BCS bowls since 2005. Nah, that’s too easy in the Twitter age. We need to be angry about something dammit and the Big East, not entirely unwarranted, has been an easy target. As a UConn fan, let me assure you that as a fan I will not care about the thousands of words written about my team as I’m spending New Year’s night at the Fiesta Bowl. Trust me.

This year’s Big East race is down to three teams. UConn, the third team, was a preseason favorite but after a disastrous start to the season, the fans would be okay with an 8-4 finish even if we don’t get the BCS bid. Fans of West Virginia and Pitt, two other preseason favorites, would not be as happy. In Morgantown, the offense has sputtered and the team has failed to live up to expectations. In Pittsburgh, the team sucked through September, righted the ship in Big East play and then gagged away a game against UConn in which they badly outplayed UConn. The two rivals meet Friday for the Backyard Brawl with the loser essentially eliminated from the Big East conference race and I have a hunch the losing team’s fans will be a very surly bunch for the next 10 months.

9 Arkansas
LSU is the established program. They’ve won two national titles in the past decade. They’re up there with Florida and Alabama as the standard bearers of the SEC. Arkansas is the new kid on the SEC block that has never won the conference. Sure, they pop up every now and then to win the SEC West, but only in years where LSU and Alabama are down. This year was supposed to be different with Ryan Mallet but a couple of poorly-timed interceptions against Alabama and a meltdown against Auburn has made this year a lot like others.

But it doesn’t have to end that way. With a win Saturday over LSU, Arkansas and Bobby Petrino may be petitioning for inclusion in the SEC’s Power Club. With a win, Arkansas could position itself for the first BCS bowl bid in school history and a huge Sugar Bowl game against either an 11-1 Wisconsin or 11-1 Ohio State. Short of the school’s two SEC championship games, this game could be the biggest for Arkansas since it joined the SEC and would be its biggest victory.

8 Michigan
I know, Ohio State is the team playing for the Big Ten title. But would an Ohio State loss really do anything to the program? At 10-2, they still might make a BCS game. It’s not like Jim Tressel is going to get run out of town for finally losing one to Michigan. Maybe if he lost two in a row, but not the first one.

On the other hand, Michigan has not showed that much improvement. Yes, they’re bowl eligible and they’ve won 7 games but this is Michigan. Lloyd Carr went out by winning a New Year’s Day bowl game over Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow – and that season was a failure. The standards have been lowered at Michigan but, deep down, all Michigan fans still believe they should beat Ohio State every year and rightly so. To think that Michigan is now 7-4 with the type of season Denard Robinson has produced only further illustrates how far Michigan has fallen. If they lose again to Ohio State, what will they have really done this year? Can Michigan fans really enjoy a year where the best win was over UConn?

7 Nebraska
It’s no secret that it has not been a good week in Nebraska. The team lost pretty pathetically to Texas A&M on Saturday. Taylor Martinez was hurt, got chewed out by his coach, may or may not leave the team and may or may not play on Saturday. Bo Pelini endured the wrath of the university’s president. And, oh by the way, they must beat Colorado on Friday or risk losing the Big XII North on their way out of the conference. To make matters a tad more difficult, Colorado is 5-6, one win from bowl eligibility and playing with resounding confidence since the firing of Dan Hawkins. Nebraska needs to beat a 5-6 team more than it’s ever needed to beat a 5-6 team in its history.

6 Georgia
Speaking of 5-6 teams, here’s Georgia, one of two SEC powers sitting on five wins heading into the last week of their regular season. Tennessee, though, is a remarkable 5-6 and its fans are strangely delirious that they’ve appeared to a) have found a quarterback and b) have a coach that won’t flee in four months. Georgia fans, on the other hand, are not as happy about the 5-6 record. They’ll be a lot less happy if they fall to Georgia Tech, end 5-7 and fail to make a bowl game. A 6-6 record won’t make every Bulldog fan – or even any – happy with the 2010 season but it’s much, much better than the alternative.

5 SMU
A lot of people got wrapped up in the SMU story last year and rightfully so. They made their first bowl game since the death penalty, June Jones got to return triumphantly to Hawaii and everything was wine and roses. This year, SMU’s season has gone largely unnoticed by the general public, who sees the team’s 6-5 record and shrug. But this year could prove even more monumental for the program as a win over East Carolina on Friday (or a Tulsa loss later that day) sends SMU to the Conference USA title game. Think that’s not important? SMU hasn’t won an outright conference championship since 1982 – that’s a long, long time. Two more wins and SMU can do something that hasn’t been done at the school in a generation.

4 North Carolina State
You think 1982 is a long time? North Carolina State hasn’t won the ACC since 1979! That’s a long, long, long time. Tom O’Brien was brought in to change the culture at NC State and, for the most part, he’s succeeded. It may have taken longer than some thought but with a win over Maryland, NC State is poised to make its first ACC title game appearance and play for its first BCS bowl bid in school history. To say there’s a lot riding on the game is just a little bit of an understatement. For the Wolfpack, it is a chance to redefine the football program and possibly become a power in an ACC void of great teams save for Virginia Tech, NC State’s would-be opponent in the ACC title game.

3 Oklahoma State
You think 1979 is a long time? Try 1953! Yep, that’s the last time Oklahoma State outright won a conference title and that was the Missouri Valley Conference. In the Big 8, now Big XII, the Cowpokes can only claim a co-title in 1976. Last week’s win over Kansas marked the first time the school had ever won 10 in a regular season. These are heady time for the Cowboys but a loss this weekend, sadly, would render most of it moot.

Why? Because a loss would likely mean another Oklahoma Big XII South title and another Oklahoma victory in the Bedlam series. Since Les Miles was able to pull off back to back stunners in 2001 and 2002, the Cowboys have been routinely drubbed by their bigger, badder in-state rival. This week, though, the roles are reversed. ESPN Gameday is in town because Oklahoma State is a one-loss, top 10 team with BCS dreams and the Heisman hopeful at wide receiver. This is Oklahoma State’s moment. They need to win.

2 Alabama
If you think a team can’t reach the crossroads a year after winning a national title, you’ve obviously never met a Crimson Tide fan. They should never lose a game, period. You may consider it crazy. I consider it lovable. This is a group of fans that unconditionally adores its football team and expects the best each and every week. Sure, they can be fanatical and, quite frankly, frightening at times but they’re still the most loyal bunch of college football fans on the planet. Did your team draw 93,000+ for the spring game?

That’s why this Friday’s game against Alabama means so much to the team and its fans. When you put together back-to-back undefeated regular seasons, the bar gets raised. And when you lose twice and can’t win the SEC title, that doesn’t go over well. You play for Alabama and like the other great programs, you play against the past. Right now, Alabama needs to beat Auburn to maintain its spot as #1 in their state. And that’s a title that may be more important than SEC and national titles, because you can’t win those if you can’t win your state. Alabama wants to ruin Auburn’s season. They’re the underdog, for once. It’s a role they should relish. It’s a game they should win.

1 Boise State
No team will play a game as important this weekend as Boise State will Friday night against Nevada. Boise State, regardless of the day’s earlier outcomes, will be on the brink of history with a win. With an Auburn or Oregon loss earlier in the day, they will definitely be able to write history. This isn’t about winning something for the first time since, or doing something that’s only be done once or twice in history. This is about doing something that’s never been done before.

In the long, storied history of college football, an outsider has never played for a national title. In fact, the closest would be the Miami teams of the early 1980s but, considering the boatloads of NFL talent, they were far more the establishment that they like to admit. Boise State is not the establishment. They play on blue turf. They play on Friday nights, Tuesday nights and any night they get a good game. They travel across the country to NFL stadiums to play BCS conferences teams because no one has the guts to visit Boise.

With two more victories, none of that will matter anymore. Thanks to an incredible string of success, the big boys have finally decided to open up a chair at the table for Boise State. When you win 36 or 37, when you win two more BCS bowls than Notre Dame has, when you constantly draw great TV ratings for ESPN…you gain entry. But, the application isn’t complete. Boise State still needs two more wins and it begins Friday night with arguably its toughest game of the season, Virginia Tech included.

Nevada is a conference foe. They play Boise State every year. They’re 10-1 and have received 1/10000000th the attention Boise State has. They’ve had an incredible season that could define its program if they beat Boise State.

At 10:15 p.m. Friday, Boise State will be in the rarest of positions in sports – they will be playing a game with everything to gain and everything to lose.

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The Heisman Race Has Been Whittled....Up To Five?

2010-11-23T12:20:00.000-05:00

And then there were…five? Last week, I had again whittled down the Heisman contenders and I again whittled too much. There will likely be five Heisman finalists and, barring something unforeseen, we know our five finalists. The only outsider with a chance to win a New York invite is Denard Robinson, who has built up enough goodwill that if he can produce a sublime performance in a win over Ohio, he’ll sneak in as a late finalist. Other than that…meet your 2010 Heisman finalists!

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

I know, I know, last week I said that Luck had no signature games remaining and that meant he had no more opportunities to create any more Heisman moments. Oops, missed that one. I cannot be blamed, though, for not realizing that Luck was going to flatten a helpless Cal defender, stand over him like the most badass QB in history and then continue to run for 20 more yards. Luck had the ability to turn a routine rout over Cal into SportsCenter-grabbing highlights. That’s Heisman-worthy, no?

Maybe more important to Luck’s candidacy is his mouthwatering potential for pro scouts and his team’s looming issues with the BCS. Both are not necessarily tied into his on-field performance and Heisman hopes but it is keeping him in the public spotlight. On the first count, Luck is now established himself as the obvious #1 pick in the 2011 draft if he decides to come out and every time he’s mentioned or written about, it’s prefaced with “likely #1 pick.”

Secondly, Stanford being kept out of the BCS, specifically the Rose Bowl, by the Big East champion, ACC champion and/or non-BCS team such as Boise State and TCU is going to bring much consternation from sportswriters. We know they are a lot that likes to rub it in the face of the BCS and what better way to do that than using Stanford and Andrew Luck as the poster boy. This could become the year’s only BCS controversy if Oregon loses to set up an Auburn/Boise State title game. We’d get a fair title game, the Rose Bowl would get its Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup and the BCS would…work? We know that would never happen so Luck becomes the go-to story in the week leading up to the Heisman vote. It will help me.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

No player has more to gain over the final two weeks that Blackmon. While the other four finalists have all had signature Heisman moments and have been talked about since September, Blackmon’s only real notoriety came from an ill-advised trip to a Dallas Cowboys game, a DUI arrest and a subsequent one-game suspension. It was at that point that I believe Blackmon had zero shot at the Heisman, especially in the wake of Cam Newton’s allegations. As it turns out, driving drunk is considered a far less egregious offense than trying to get paid.

Regardless of his transgressions, there’s no denying that Blackmon has become the absolute best wide receiver in college football this year. In fact, he’s so much better than other WRs that he has forced Heisman voters to take notice and, once they do, they look at his stats and realize he is a legit contender.

For the final two weeks, Blackmon has the opportunity to make history. Oklahoma State has never won 11 games. They’ve never played in a major bowl game. They’ve never played in a BCS game. They’ve never won their conference championship outright. All of these things can change in the next two weeks during primetime, ABC games against Oklahoma and Nebraska. The stage is Blackmon’s. And if Oklahoma State wins their next two games, it will be because of Justin Blackmon. His potential for greatness in these last two games is off the charts.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

There has been an odd groundswell of resistance to LaMichael James winning the Heisman, based mostly upon the “gimmickry” of Oregon’s offense. I don’t really see the point since all football offenses rely on some sort of subterfuge to get the defense moving one way when it should be moving in another. The exception, of course, is the UConn offense which is Jordan Todman right, Jordan Todman left and Jordan Todman up the middle.

Still, the mounting criticism of the nation’s leading rusher seems to be hampering any hopes James has to actually win the Heisman as an invite is almost assured. He will get two showcase games down the stretch against Arizona and Oregon State but most sportswriters have dismissed both clubs as massive underdogs. So even if James springs for 150 yards and two touchdowns, will it make an impact? Likely not. And if Oregon struggles at all, for whatever reason, that will hurt his candidacy. Fair? No. Reality? Yes.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

He doesn’t have Cam Newton’s athletic ability. He doesn’t have Andrew Luck’s pro potential. Yet Kellen Moore may just be the best college football quarterback in the country. You only have to look at one number – the zero in the loss column – to appropriately sum up what Moore means to Boise State. He is an incredible 36-1 as a starter and an even more incredible 34-0 in the regular season. Yes, that’s 34 wins and no losses. If not for the TCU loss in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, Boise State would be on a 37-game winning streak. As is, they “only” have a 24-game streak going.

And when you watch Boise State play, you quickly realize that not only is Moore the best player on the field, he KNOWS he’s the best player on the field. He makes the smart play almost every time. He makes the right decision almost every time. Even though Boise has been rarely tested, he proved everything we needed to know about his nerves in the last minute drive against Virginia Tech. Watch this. It was so easy against such a talented defense in such a hostile environment. It’s a shame so many voters have forgotten how amazing that performance was.

At the end of the day, the Heisman winner has a moment that usually defines a college football season. For Cam Newton, he’s had the spectacular plays and, added together, they may end up defining the season. But to me, the best game of the year happened Labor Day night in an atmosphere that felt like an NFL Playoff Game. And in that moment, with the stakes so incredibly high, Kellen Moore came through like a champion. He’s not the Heisman winner as of right now…but he could be a week from now.

Let us also not forget that if Auburn and Oregon win out to block Boise State from the title game – will voters throw Moore and Boise a bone in the form of the Heisman?

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

It’s pretty simple. If Auburn wins its last two games, Cam Newton wins the Heisman. If Auburn loses but Newton plays well…he wins the Heisman. So how can Newton lose the Heisman? Only if he completely bombs against Alabama or if the allegations stop being allegations and turn into actual NCAA infractions.

Should Newton be a no-brainer for the Heisman Trophy? At this point, it’s hard to argue. Auburn was an 8-5 team last year. They may have been a 9- or 10-win team without Newton but they would never have been a national title contender. Would they have beaten Clemson, South Carolina, LSU or, hell, Kentucky without Newton? It’s doubtful. He is the Auburn Tigers in 2010 and the Auburn Tigers in 2010 are college football’s biggest story and arguably its best team.

The door isn’t closed on other contender, a la Reggie Bush in 2005 after the Fresno State game, but it’s only opened the tiniest of cracks. Newton’s going to need to open the door to let anyone in.

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Bowl Projections: The Calm Before The Storm, Part Two

2010-11-22T15:40:00.000-05:00

My bowl projections are based on the here and now, meaning I make no predictions on future games. This is simply what the bowl lineup would look like if the season ended today.

Teams that are underlined have accepted a bowl bid and teams with an asterisks* are there because the contracted conference could meet its obligation.

BCS Title Game
Jan. 10, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
#1 Oregon (10-0) vs. #2 Auburn (11-0)
The story remains the same at the top as Oregon and Auburn continue to control their own destiny when it comes to playing for a national championship. Oregon has to beat Arizona and Oregon State the next two weeks and has zero margin for error. Auburn has Alabama followed by South Carolina in the SEC title game but the SEC defenders have already sounded the alarm that a one-loss Auburn should be above undefeated TCU and Boise State. You may convince me on TCU, you absolutely cannot on Boise State and I highly doubt that’s going to happen. If Oregon and Auburn both lose? Would voters give us a TCU/Boise State national title? Of course…that’s a scenario where I see a one-loss Auburn sneaking back in. However, that one loss must be a close one to Alabama – if they lose to South Carolina, they have zero chance, and rightfully so, at a national title.

Sugar Bowl
Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#5 LSU (10-1) vs. #8 Ohio State (10-1)
The only thing certain about the Sugar Bowl is that it’s probably going to get a big time matchup between the SEC and the Big Ten. LSU is in the driver’s seat currently for the SEC side. But South Carolina slides in here with a win in the SEC title game. Wouldn’t it be funny if South Carolina lost to Clemson, beat Auburn and had four losses as a BCS team? You think they would get the same scrutiny a four-loss team from the ACC or Big East would get? Arkansas needs to beat LSU to take this spot. If Alabama beats Auburn, they’d likely get the SEC’s second BCS bid but would likely be in the Orange Bowl. The Sugar Bowl gets first pick and will undoubtedly be selecting between Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin based on which team doesn’t get into the Rose Bowl. I do think LSU vs. Stanford would be an appealing television matchup but Stanford wouldn’t fly in the 20,000+ fans Ohio State or Wisconsin would. But would the Sugar Bowl be willing to take Stanford over Michigan State?

Orange Bowl
Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#16 Virginia Tech (9-2) vs. #3 TCU (11-0)
The Orange Bowl is hoping, wishing and praying for one things – no SEC team in the BCS title game. If that happens, one SEC team will go to the Sugar Bowl and another would land here. If Alabama beats Auburn, that would mean Alabama here. If South Carolina beats Auburn, that would mean either an 11-1 Auburn or the LSU/Arkansas winner. Things would get even better for the Orange Bowl if Florida State can squeeze into the ACC title game and return to the Orange Bowl. As is, Virginia Tech wouldn’t be a bad representative but it would need an attractive opponent. One word on TCU – they are dangerously close on missing out on the BCS completely. Say the title game is Oregon/Boise State, then the Rose Bowl gets Stanford, the Orange Bowl gets a second SEC team and TCU goes to Las Vegas. Trust me, the BCS wants to make nice with the non-BCS schools. But if Boise’s playing for a title, they’ll believe they’ve done enough and shuffled TCU off. Watch for this.

Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Big XII Champion vs. BCS at-large
#9 Oklahoma State (10-1) vs. Pittsburgh (6-4)
Shockingly, this is our only change to the projections as Oklahoma State slides in here as the Big XII representative. This game is essentially a two-conference tournament as the Big XII champion will play the Big East champion. There are five teams alive on the Big XII side – Missouri, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. On the Big East side, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and UConn all remain alive. Pitt is the only one who can clinch this weekend, which they can do with a win over West Virginia and a UConn loss. Somehow, some way, there will be a Big East team that will control its own destiny heading into the first week of December. I’m biased – go Huskies!

Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Eligible non-BCS school must be replacement
#7 Wisconsin (10-1) vs. #4 Boise State (10-0)
Have you seen the AP Poll? Boise State is picking up a lot of first place votes. It is not out of the realm of possibility that even with undefeated Auburn and Oregon, Boise State could be playing for a share of the national title with AP voters dying to stick it to the BCS. The Big Ten champion will be one of Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State, with Wisconsin getting the nod if they all win out. If Boise State, or TCU, makes it to the title game against Oregon, you can forget about the Rose Bowl taking a non-BCS team. They will take 11-1 Stanford and be the happiest bunch of bowl organizers you’ve ever seen in your life. They may be okay with Boise State. They will NOT be okay with TCU.

New Mexico Bowl
Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MWC #4/#5
Toledo* (7-4) vs. BYU (6-5)
The WAC isn’t going to fill this slot unless Boise State gets shut out of the BCS. If Colorado could get bowl eligible with a win over Nebraska Friday, this would be a likely landing spot for them. BYU makes the most sense from the Mountain West side. But if they beat Utah to get to 7-5, they then become very attractive to the Independence Bowl.

Humanitarian Bowl
Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MAC #3
Fresno State (6-4) vs. Temple (8-3)
No change here, as Fresno State is basically locked into this game at this point, barring BCS chaos with Boise State. I don’t think the MAC would send a title game participant here, so Temple seems to be a logical choice here.

New Orleans Bowl
Dec. 18, 9 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. Sun Belt Champion
SMU (6-5) vs. FIU (5-5)
FIU needs to beat Arkansas State or Middle Tennessee State in its last two games to win the Sun Belt and get its first bowl bid in school history. SMU doesn’t really have anywhere else to go and New Orleans isn’t that far away.

Please note that the Conference USA bowl picture is pure chaos since the bids are basically doled out by the commissioner’s office, which I think is incredibly stupid but logical from a business perspective. And if the SEC can’t fill its spot in Birmingham, the Liberty Bowl becomes SEC vs. Big East and the Conference USA champion likely heads to the Hawaii Bowl. That scenario is not in play yet but would be if Tennessee and Georgia lost Saturday.

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
C-USA vs. Big East #6
Southern Miss (8-3) vs. Syracuse (7-4)
If Syracuse wins over Boston College in its season finale to get to 8-4, they’ll become a more logical choice for the Pinstripe Bowl. Remember, these Big East projections are made based on Notre Dame beating USC. If they don’t, Syracuse can move up to Charlotte or even Orlando with a win. Southern Miss continues to make a lot of sense here, not too far away and looking to play a BCS conference opponent.

Las Vegas Bowl
Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. MWC Champion
Boston College* (6-5) vs. #20 Utah (9-2)
Utah is locked into this spot unless TCU gets bumped from the BCS or Notre Dame becomes available as an at-large team at 6-6. They would want to avoid a rematch, so BYU or San Diego State would go here. The Pac-10 won’t fill this slot unless UCLA wins its last two (possible) or Oregon State defeats Stanford or Oregon (far less possible). Boston College is the only BCS conference team this week with six wins that doesn’t have a bowl home. How’s that ACC move working out, BC?

Poinsettia Bowl
Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Navy vs. MWC #2
Navy (8-3) vs. San Diego State (7-4)
The only way this game doesn’t happen is if TCU doesn’t make the BCS.

Hawaii Bowl
Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. C-USA #2-6
Hawaii (8-3) vs. UTEP (6-6)
As mentioned above, bowl organizers are desperately hoping for the Conference USA champion to become available to set up a really nice matchup with a strong Hawaii team. As is, Hawaii will likely be feasting on a weak Conference USA opponent.

Little Ceaser’s Pizza Bowl
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten #8 (Sun Belt backup) vs. MAC #1
Louisville* (5-6) vs. Northern Illinois (9-2)
Louisville needs to beat Rutgers Friday to get bowl eligible. Since I have Notre Dame taking a Big East spot, Louisville would be the odd team out and would head here as an at-large selection. However, if the Liberty Bowl becomes a Big East bowl, they would jump all over Louisville and send USF here. Northern Illinois is the class of the MAC but, sadly, this looks like the MAC’s only BCS conference opponent in a bowl game.

Independence Bowl
Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
ACC #7 vs. MWC #3
North Carolina (6-5) vs. Air Force (8-4)
Air Force is locked in here unless BYU beats Utah or TCU misses out on the BCS. The ACC is a jumbled mess toward the bottom of the conference. Since I think UNC will beat Duke, they’ll be 7-5 and will stand out from the others, if not by much.

Champs Sports Bowl
Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Big East #2/Notre Dame vs. ACC #3
Notre Dame (6-5) vs. #23 North Carolina State (8-3)
Notre Dame has to beat USC to secure this bid. If they lose, look for West Virginia to slide in here or possibly an 8-4 Syracuse team. NC State controls its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic and is thinking Orange Bowl right now, not this game.

Insight Bowl
Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5
#17 Texas A&M (8-3) vs. Michigan (7-4)
There’s no way the Insight Bowl is passing on a hot Texas A&M team with a rabid fan base to appease Missouri. I know Missouri is doing its best to get a better bowl bid but, sorry, it ain’t happening if this is the scenario. Michigan gets bumped down here from the Gator Bowl because Penn State has been coming on strong. A lot, of course, still to be decided in the Big Ten.

Military Bowl
Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #8 vs. C-USA #2-6
Georgia Tech (6-5) vs. East Carolina (6-5)
This looks like a winner, right? Georgia Tech has a lot to gain if it can beat Georgia and get to 7-5. East Carolina is just sort of a team this year and this game is just sort of a bowl.

Texas Bowl
Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #6 vs. Big Ten #6
Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-5)
Illinois moves up from the TicketCity Bowl to here because they beat Northwestern and the Wildcats, without its starting QB, are far less attractive to bowls. Baylor was 7-2 and ranked but ended the season with three straight losses to ranked foes. Not the worst finish in the world and I think the Baylor fans will still be excited to go bowling. If Texas Tech gets to 7-5, they could go here and send Baylor down to the TicketCity Bowl.

Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #2 vs. Big XII #3
#6 Stanford (9-1) vs. #15 Nebraska (9-2)
Stanford is stuck here unless the Rose Bowl opens up for them. At first, I wanted to put Texas A&M here but with Nebraska leaving for the Big Ten, the game may want one last go with the Cornhuskers and their rabid fans. However, if Nebraska loses the Big XII title game and Texas A&M ends their year with a win over Texas, it’d be tough to pass up the Aggies.

Armed Forces Bowl
Dec. 30, Noon, ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. MWC #4/5 or Army
Tulsa (8-3) vs. Army (6-5)
Another game I haven’t changed in a while. Army is locked in here assuming TCU gets a BCS bid. If TCU doesn’t, Army then becomes a very attractive free agent to bowls. Tulsa has had a very good year and seems to be a no-brainer for this spot.

Pinstripe Bowl
Dec. 30, 3 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #7 vs. Big East #4
Kansas State (6-5) vs. UConn (6-4)
With Rutgers’ implosion, the Big East side has been narrowed down to UConn and Syracuse going here. Of course, UConn can still reach the BCS and the Notre Dame/Champs Sports Bowl situation must be resolved first. Kansas State seems like the logical Big XII choice since the Texas Bowl and TicketCity Bowl will want to divvy up Baylor and Texas Tech.

Music City Bowl
Dec. 30, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC #7 vs. ACC #6
Tennessee (5-6) vs. Maryland (7-4)
This is what the Music City Bowl would call a dream scenario. A 6-6 Tennessee team riding a three-game winning streak thanks to a freshman QB? Just starting printing those tickets. Maryland is going to get shuffled down the ACC lineup since they haven’t beaten anyone of note and no one really wants to see them play anymore football. That could change, of course, if they beat NC State Saturday.

Holiday Bowl
Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #3 vs. Big XII #5
#22 Arizona (7-3) vs. #15 Missouri (8-2)
Arizona plays in this game unless Stanford makes the BCS or Oregon State does the unthinkable and ends the year by beating Stanford and Oregon. One of those scenarios is more likely than the other. Missouri is the fifth Big XII ranked team so of course it will go to the bowl picking fifth from the conference. They would love to play Michigan or Penn State in the Insight Bowl but they’re going to need help for that.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN
ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
Clemson (6-5) vs. West Virginia (7-3)
If Notre Dame takes the Champs Sports Bowl spot, West Virginia is a no-brainer slam dunk for Charlotte. On the other side, Clemson makes the most sense since North Carolina has played here the last two years, NC State may have just played here for the ACC title game and Clemson has never played in this game. Even if Clemson ends up 6-6, they’d still be the likely choice here unless the game believe West Virginia can sell enough tickets. Or if NC State loses to Maryland and ends up 8-4 without playing in the ACC title game.

Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
ACC #4 vs. Pac-10 #4
Miami, Fla. (7-4) vs. Cal (5-6)/Washington (4-6) winner
Miami makes a lot of sense for this game, which gets a lot of local support and is more concerned with putting on TV-friendly games. The Pac-10 side will likely be the winner of this week’s Cal/Washington game, though Washington would still have to beat Washington State in the finale. Oregon State and UCLA are outside chances for this game, but they both have lots of work to do.

Liberty Bowl
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8/9 (Big East #5 backup)
UCF (8-3) vs. Georgia (5-6)
UCF is the Conference USA leader at the moment so they get the nod. Georgia will definitely end up here if they beat Georgia Tech. But if Tennessee loses, they’d be playing a Big East opponent like Louisville instead.

Chick-fil-a Bowl
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
#22 Florida State (8-3) vs. #25 Mississippi State (7-4)
This is a pretty easy selection this week for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Florida State is ranked and hasn’t played in this game in more than two decades. Even with a loss to Florida, the Seminoles will end up here unless it makes the ACC title game. Mississippi State is penciled in here but that could change if Florida beats Florida State. The game could then try to match Florida up with NC State or Virginia Tech.

TicketCity Bowl
Jan. 1, Noon, ESPNU
Big XII #8 vs. Big Ten #7
Texas Tech (6-5) vs. Northwestern (7-4)
The Big XII representative will be either Texas Tech or Baylor. The Big Ten side is almost certain to be Northwestern unless Illinois loses to Fresno State and falls here. Even if the Big Ten somehow only gets once team in the BCS, the choice will be between Northwestern and Illinois. Unless Northwestern somehow beats Wisconsin. That’s not going to happen.

Outback Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
#24 Iowa (7-4) vs. #18 South Carolina (8-3)
If South Carolina loses to Clemson and Auburn to fall to 8-5, look for them to slip to the Gator Bowl and for Florida to sneak in here. Iowa should get here with a win but if Penn State knocks off Michigan State or Michigan knocks off Ohio State, they would instantly be far more attractive than a disappointing Iowa team.

Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2
#11 Alabama (9-2) vs. #10 Michigan State (10-1)
This is shaping up to again be one of the best bowls of the year. There will likely be two Big Ten teams in the BCS and the odd man out goes here. The SEC side will be one of the quartet of SEC West powers. If the Big Ten teams win out and South Carolina beats Auburn, this would be an eye-catching matchup of 11-1 Michigan State and 11-1 LSU or 12-1 Auburn. That would be cool, right?

Gator Bowl
Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
SEC #6 vs. Big Ten #4/5
Florida (7-4) vs. Penn State (7-4)
Florida has seemed locked into this game for months as it’s not one of the conference’s six ranked teams but not quite down to the 6-6 level of Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee. On the Big Ten side, Iowa, Michigan and Penn State will split up the Gator, Insight and Outback bowls. For now, Penn State looks like the team here.

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
MAC vs. Sun Belt #2
Ohio (8-3) vs. Troy (5-5)
The less said the better, okay?

Cotton Bowl
Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Big XII #2 vs. SEC #3/4
#13 Oklahoma (9-2) vs. #12 Arkansas (9-2)
If Texas A&M wins over Texas and Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, I’d be shocked if Texas A&M wasn’t in this game. The problem is they already played Arkansas – and in the same stadium – so Arkansas would have to be out of the picture. This game is still way up in the air but it will definitely match a top-ranked SEC team against a top-ranked Big XII team. In short, it’s going to be a good one.

BBVA Compass Bowl
Jan. 8, Noon, ESPN
SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5
Kentucky (6-5) vs. USF (6-4)
If Kentucky loses to Tennessee, they slip down here. Normally, the bowl would want Louisville in its first bowl in a few years but they wouldn’t want a rematch. So USF gets the nod and the country nods off.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. WAC
UCLA (4-6) vs. #19 Nevada (10-1)
The Notre Dame hopes for this bowl game remain alive but it’s going to need some help from the Pac-10, namely having USC beat Notre Dame. And then they need UCLA to lose one of its last two and Oregon State to lose its last two. It seems like Nevada should get a better reward for its season than 6-6 UCLA but that’s life in college football. It’s not so bad.

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Top 25: The Calm Before The Storm

2010-11-22T11:35:00.000-05:00

I dubbed last weekend a Status Quo Saturday and, for the first time all year, I was right about something! Check out the 10-4-1 record! Even the one mild upset, Texas A&M over Nebraska, only jumbled up the Big XII division races and made this weekend even more important.

So as you read this week’s rankings, you’ll see that very little, if anything has changed. And that’s fine. Because we have a really, really big week ahead of ourselves – check out what everything means.

Consider these rankings the calm before the storm. By Saturday night, we will our conference championship games, a much clearer national championship picture and even possibly a Heisman Trophy winner. So there are a few things going to keep an eye on.

Dropped out:

25 Michigan (7-4)
There’s no doubt Michigan has a Top 25 offense. There’s also no doubt it has an FCS-level defense, and that may be unfair to FCS defenses. Still, if there was ever a good team Michigan was built to beat, it’s Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ offense has sputtered all year in big games and the last thing Jim Tressel wants it to get into an offensive shootout. Remember West Virginia’s big wins under Rich Rodriguez? They all followed a similar pattern – start out quick, get a lead and turn the game into a track meet. Ohio State’s defense needs to be ready from the word ‘go.’

22 San Diego State (7-4)
There’s not too much fault you can find with San Diego State this year. Three of their losses have come to ranked teams by one score and their fourth loss was a highly controversial decision to BYU. Still, you get the feeling the team must be thinking about what could’ve been. They will certainly carry a lot of momentum in the 2011 season, if coach Brady Hoke is back for another run.

21 USC (7-4)
It appears I may have stepped on the USC bandwagon at precisely the wrong moment. With Matt Barkley questionable after an injury and with motivated rivals in Notre Dame and UCLA up next, the once-promising season could limp to an unflattering 7-6 end. Lane Kiffin needs to nab one of the next two to keep hopes up for Trojans fans that probation would be a death knell for the program.

This week's Top 25

25 Iowa (7-4)
Last week: 20
I thought about dropping Iowa out in favor of a team like North Carolina State but, really, Iowa is one of the best 25 teams in the country. They’re just not very good at closing out games. The Northwestern game was a definite chokejob but they had Arizona, Wisconsin and Ohio State on the ropes late and let each game get away. Which is the exact opposite of how last year’s Iowa team, which wasn’t as good as this one, managed 10 wins and an Orange Bowl berth. On the plus side, they’ll almost definitely spend New Year’s Day in Florida.

24 Mississippi State (7-4)
Last week: NR
I unranked Mississippi State but that was an unfair reaction to a blowout from a very, very good Alabama team. Mississippi State now has four losses but all four have come to teams currently ranked in the top 15. If they played in the ACC, is there any doubt this team would be 9-2? So I can’t punish them too much for an insanely tough slate, especially since they played Auburn and Arkansas so well at home.

23 Florida State (8-3)
Last week: NR
If, if, if, that will be the word on the lips of every Florida State fan and player this week as they hope Maryland defeats NC State to allow the Seminoles to sneak into the ACC title game. If Christian Ponder hadn’t fumbled away a win over NC State. If they didn’t blow the UNC game late. If they showed up for the Oklahoma game. However, a win over Florida this weekend to end that wicked skid would make up for a lot of the Seminoles’ issue, ACC title or not. And Jimbo Fisher has clearly changed the culture in Tallahassee and it must make Seminole backers feel better that they are miles ahead of Miami.

22 Northern Illinois (9-2)
Last week: 24
65-30. 59-21. Those are the final scores in Northern Illinois’ last two victories. I would say this is a very good football, a very explosive football team and the likely MAC conference champion. The only problem is they are almost undoubtedly not going to receive a bowl bid close to their worth.

21 Utah (9-2)
Last week: NR
I was harsh on Utah last week after the meltdown in South Bend and, for a while late Saturday night, I looked like a genius for ranking San Diego State instead of them. But all credit to Kyle Whittingham and his staff for keeping his players focused and they eventually came back to score a crucial victory. Utah may not be the immediate Pac-12 contender we thought they may be next year but they’re definitely a Top 25 team that could contend within a couple of years.

20 Arizona (7-3)
Last week: 23
Okay Arizona, here’s your chance. Your season hasn’t gone to form in Pac-10 play. Your BCS and Rose Bowl dreams have long since been extinguished. Still, one win over Oregon on Friday night and almost all of it will be forgiven. The goal at Arizona has been to improve every year and build a legitimate football program. They went 8-4 last year. To avoid a similar fate, they only need to pull off one of the upsets of the year in Autzen Stadium. Good luck.

19 South Carolina (8-3)
Last week: 18
The Gamecock really didn’t deserve to drop after taking Troy out behind the woodshed but Texas A&M deserved a minor boost after the Nebraska win. And to be frank, the rankings mean absolutely zero right now to the Gamecock. They want to take care of their rival Clemson this week and they want to beat Auburn to play in the Sugar Bowl. They could be ranked 10th or not receive a single vote – if they play in the Sugar Bowl, their fans will be happy.

18 Texas A&M (8-3)
Last week: 19
Well I’m pretty sure no team this side of Connecticut (go Huskies! Fiesta Bowl baby!) has turned its season around more dramatically than Texas A&M. If they can finish off the Texas season on Thanksgiving night, Mike Sherman will have turned in one of the best in-season coaching turnarounds in recent memory and A&M will remain alive for the Big XII South title. Even if the BCS is out of reach, it has been a great year for the program and hope now exists that they can become part of the Big XII’s new power trio with Texas and Oklahoma.

17 Missouri (9-2)
Last week: 17
The win over Iowa State wasn’t pretty – in fact, it was brutal and tough to watch. But a win is a win and Missouri, if it can get Colorado to beat Nebraska Friday, still has a chance to win the Big XII North. Regardless, a win over Kansas gives Missouri 10 wins and a hugely successful season. Still, they’ll be pulling for Colorado.

16 Oklahoma (9-2)
Last week: 16
After watching Oklahoma ambush Baylor, you get the feeling they should be better than the 16th best team in the country. But they’ve been so wildly inconsistent that I don’t want to over-ranked them based on easy victories against marginal bowl teams in Baylor and Texas Tech. It doesn’t really matter since Oklahoma has a perfect opportunity to show how good it is when it plays in Stillwater Saturday night to decide the Big XII South against Oklahoma State.

15 Nebraska (9-2)
Last week: 7
Nebraska has had nine incredible victories and two absolute head-scratching losses. The game Saturday night in College Station may have been even more bizarre than the home loss to Texas. There was Bo Pelini chewing out his quarterback and starting rumors that Taylor Martinez was on his way out of Lincoln. There was the mystifyingly bad performance by the offense. And the insane number of penalties against Nebraska – 16 – compared to just two for Texas A&M. As long as Nebraska can take care of Colorado Friday, though, they’ll be bound for JerryWorld and the Big XII title game.

14 Nevada (10-1)
Last week: 15
It’s pretty amazing that we’re even having the discussion about whether Boise needs to win big to impress Friday night against Nevada. The Wolf Pack are a legit Top 20, even better in my opinion, and the game is in Reno where Nevada destroyed Cal by four touchdowns. And we’re still talking style points? Boise State needs to win the game, period, and worry about the BCS after that. As for Nevada, who is to say they can’t win the WAC? Heck, if they beat Boise and TCU somehow loses to New Mexico, they’d be in line for a BCS bowl berth. Yes, I’m serious.

13 Arkansas (9-2)
Last week: 14
Arkansas has suddenly become a huge Auburn fan. If Auburn can knock off Alabama Friday, it would set up the Arkansas/LSU game as a win and you’re in the BCS. That’s really all Arkansas can ask for after the losses to Auburn and Alabama and, boy howdy, has their offense been humming along nicely. Do you think Bobby Petrino will get a little excited watching film of Ole Miss put up 36 on LSU?

12 Alabama (9-2)
Last week: 13
They can’t win the SEC. They can’t win the national title. But Alabama, with a win, would not only ruin the season of its biggest rival but also position itself very nicely for a third straight BCS bowl. Of course, a loss means a disappointing 9-3 campaign and Alabama fans with Memento-like memories wondering when the hell Alabama is going to be good again.

11 Virginia Tech (9-2)
Last week: 12
This team would be a major player in a playoff system, wouldn’t it? I don’t care about the James Madison loss anymore, this is the best two-loss team playing right now and they will enter the Orange Bowl 11-2. They may not be the sexiest team in the country but they dominate their conference like few others in the country do. The ACC title game, thanks to its relocation in Charlotte, may actually feel like a championship game this year with a few thousands Hokie fans making the drive south for the game.

10 Michigan State (10-1)
Last week: 11
They’re definitely not the best team in the Big Ten right now but, if Ohio State can knock off Michigan, they’ll win the crown. And deservedly so because they beat Wisconsin on the field. They’ve need a few miracle comebacks this season but every team has a charmed season every now and then. If they can knock off Penn State, they will complete the team’s best regular season in five decades. They could also sneak into the BCS as a Big Ten at-large team if Wisconsin loses and Ohio State takes the Big Ten’s automatic bid in the Rose Bowl.

9 Oklahoma State (10-1)
Last week: 10
It took them a little while to get into the Kansas game but once they did, watch out, that game was over in a big way. They have now established themselves as the best team in the Big XII. How will they handle it? Oklahoma comes calling along with ESPN Gameday. This time, though, the Cowpokes are the favorites. They’re supposed to win this game. Will they come through? Bedlam is definitely one of the more intriguing games on a weekend filled with intriguing matchups.

8 Ohio State (10-1)
Last week: 9
It didn’t look good for about 56 minutes but Ohio State finally came through with its championship moment in driving for the late game-winning touchdown against Iowa. Still, their three best wins have all come over teams with four losses and they have another four-loss team in Michigan coming to Columbus. No matter, an Ohio State win and a Wisconsin loss likely sends the Buckeyes back to Pasadena. If you’re an Ohio State fan, you could probably spend every New Year’s for the rest of your life at the Rose Bowl and be happy. Just a win against Michigan should be good enough for a BCS bowl bid to either the Sugar or Orange bowls.

7 LSU (10-1)
Last week: 5
Can someone please shut Gary Danielson up? As now 4-7 Ole Miss was going toe to toe with LSU, Danielson was going on and on about how good Ole Miss is and that’s why the SEC is such a strong conference. So how good is Jacksonville State then, Gary? You know, the FCS team that beat Ole Miss? The SEC defending has gotten out of hand this year because, while the SEC West has good teams, there are a bunch of bad ones in the conference too. If LSU really wants to play for a national title, it shouldn’t need the full 60 to put away an Ole Miss team that got drilled by Tennessee. Those are the facts. It boggles my mind LSU is the top 1-loss team in the BCS standings right now.

6 Stanford (10-1)
Last week: 8
So Andrew Luck is kind of good, eh? I was shocked to see so many people picking Cal as a possible upset after their close call against Oregon. For one, Oregon clearly didn’t give Cal its best game as you know Stanford would in a rivalry game. And secondly, wasn’t it obvious Cal had put all of its eggs in the “Beat Oregon” basket? Stanford needs to avoid a similar letdown this weekend when it plays a suddenly resurgent Oregon State team that seems hell-bent on eventually making its mark on the BCS.

5 Wisconsin (10-1)
Last week: 6
I can no longer resist: Wisconsin is the best one-loss team in the country. Who wouldn’t want to see a Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl? Which is funny, since the last Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl after the 1999 was one of the dullest in history. They’re still behind LSU in the BCS standings but if BCS chaos ensues, and Wisconsin has won the Big Ten, I think they move to the head of the line. But that’s about two steps ahead of things – they need to beat Northwestern first.

4 TCU (11-0)
Last week: 3
I know it seems wrong to drop TCU on a week when they didn’t play and neither did Oregon, the team I had jumping them. But the off week gave me an opportunity to compare the two teams and it’s not really close. Oregon has not played a great schedule but it did beat Stanford. TCU has played a similar schedule, filled with mediocre teams, but lacks the one great win I can point at as a reason for them to play in the national title game. Sure, the win over Utah was nice but Utah isn’t any good. TCU needed to go out, pull a Boise and play a real team on the road. Playing Oregon State at home doesn’t cut it – Boise State did the same thing and did it better.

I don’t think a one-loss BCS conference team should jump Boise State. I have no similar issues with a one-loss BCS conference team jumping TCU. TCU may be the best team but they haven’t been able to prove it with its lame schedule. And I say lame because they schedule their nonconference games and they did not schedule like they were attempting to win a national title. If anything, they were scheduling to avoid being tested. They should be punished for that.

3 Oregon (10-0)
Last week: 4
I still think Oregon is not as good as Auburn or Boise State but it doesn’t matter one iota what I think – if they win out, they play for a title. The Cal game, though, has given me pause as to whether they’re going to pull this off. Especially with that last game against Oregon State looming. I’m worried they come through with a monster effort Friday against Arizona but come out flat against an Oregon State desperate for payback.

2 Auburn (11-0)
Last week: 2
If Auburn was ever going to play some defense, this would be the week. If they win out, I will have no choice to move them to #1 based on their schedule alone, which would by then include a remarkable six wins over ranked teams.

1 Boise State (10-0)
Last week: 1
The absolute best team in the country. I haven’t seen Auburn or Oregon drop 51-0 complete and total humiliations on anybody this season. And it was Boise’s second straight such performance! I think Boise State is going to absolutely drill Nevada late Friday night and, if Oregon and Auburn also survive, make voters seriously consider whether Boise deserve a shot, regardless of BCS conference teams standing in its way.

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Best. Weekend. Ever.

2010-11-21T12:23:00.000-05:00

My advice: don't make plans this weekend. Starting Tuesday night and running through Saturday night, literally every conference race in the country will either be decided or get some serious clarity. There are also a handful of big name programs looking to secure bowl berths. Not to mention how Friday will see three top undefeated teams led by the three top Heisman contenders against three ranked opponents. Yeah, it's that type of weekend.

For up to date television schedule, click here.

So to get you ready, here's your guide to the Best Weekend Ever and the games that matter and why.

Tuesday, Nov. 23rd

Temple at Miami, Ohio
7 p.m., ESPN
At stake: MAC East title
Miami needs to beat Temple to keep pace with Ohio U. in the MAC East division. If Miami loses, Ohio clinches the division and a spot in the MAC title game against Northern Illinois.

Thursday, Nov. 25rd

Texas A&M at Texas
8 p.m., ESPN
At stake: Big XII South title, bowl bid
Texas A&M needs a win to stay alive in the Big XII South. If Oklahoma wins, there will be a three-team tie. The top two teams in the BCS rankings will be matched up head-to-head and that will be the division winner. If the top two are Texas A&M and Oklahoma, the Aggies beat Oklahoma and would play in the Big XII title game.

Texas needs a win to get bowl eligible.

Friday, Nov. 26rd

Ohio U. at Kent State
11 a.m., ESPN U
At stake: MAC East division title
If Miami, Ohio wins Tuesday night, Ohio needs to be Kent State to win the MAC East.

West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Noon, ABC
At stake: Big East title
Pittsburgh controls its own destiny in the Big East and needs to win its last two games to win the title. West Virginia needs to beat Pittsburgh, win at Rutgers next week and hope UConn loses one of its last two.

SMU at East Carolina
2 p.m., CBS College Sports
At stake: Conference USA East & West division titles.
If SMU wins, they win the Conference USA West division since they hold the head-to-head tiebraker over Tulas.

East Carolina needs a win to stay alive in the Conference USA East division.

Auburn at Alabama
2:30 p.m, CBS
At stake: BCS title
Game of the year? Auburn needs to stay undefeated.

Colorado at Nebraska
3:30 p.m., ABC
At stake: Big XII North title, bowl berth
Nebraska will clinch the Big XII North with a win. Colorado needs a win to become bowl eligible.

UCLA at Arizona State
3:30 p.m., FSN
At stake: bowl berths
UCLA is 4-6 and needs to win its final two to become bowl eligible.

Southern Miss at Tulsa
6:30 p.m., CBS College Sports
At stake: Conference USA East & West division titles.
Southern Miss needs a win to stay alive for the Conference USA East division title. If SMU lost earlier in the day, Tulsa needs a win to capture the Conference USA West division title.

Arizona at Oregon
7 p.m., ESPN
At stake: BCS title, Pac-10 title
Oregon needs to win its last two to play for the BCS title. It needs to win one of two to win the Pac-10 title.

Boise State at Nevada
10:15, ESPN
At stake: BCS title, WAC title
Boise State needs one more win to capture the WAC title. Nevada needs a win over Boise State and a Hawaii loss to win the WAC. Boise State, of course, needs to stay undefeated for any chance at a BCS title.

Saturday, Nov. 27

Michigan at Ohio State
Noon, ABC
At stake: Big Ten title
Ohio State needs a win to stay alive in the Big 10 conference race. It would win the title outright if Michigan State and Wisconsin lose. It would likely win a two-team tie against Michigan State.

Michigan State at Penn State
Noon, ESPN
At stake: Big Ten title
Michigan State needs a win to stay alive in the Big 10 conference race. They will win it outright if Ohio State and Wisconsin loses. They will win a two-team tiebreaker if Ohio State loses. They will likely lose a two-team tiebreaker to Ohio State and the three-team tiebreaker.

UCF at Memphis
Noon
At stake: Conference USA East division title
UCF will win the Conference USA East if it wins, no matter what. If Southern Miss loses on Friday, they will have already clinched. If Southern Miss wins, they will need a win.

Kentucky at Tennessee
Noon, SEC Network
At stake: bowl berth
Tennessee needs a win to become bowl eligible.

Cincinnati at Connecticut
Noon, Big East Network
At stake: Big East title, bowl berth.
UConn needs a win to stay alive to win the Big East. If Pitt loses Friday, they will be in control of their own destiny for a BCS bid. Cincinnati is 4-6 and needs to beat UConn and beat Pitt in its season finale to become bowl eligible.

Kansas at Missouri
12:30 p.m., FSN
At stake: Big XII North title
If Nebraska loses Friday, Missouri can win the Big XII North with a win.

LSU at Arkansas
3:30 p.m., CBS
At stake: BCS bowl bid
If Alabama loses Friday, the winner of this game will likely receive an at-large BCS bowl berth. If Alabama wins, then only LSU will be playing for a BCS bid. If Auburn finishes undefeated, a second SEC team will head to the Sugar Bowl.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
3:30 p.m. ABC
At stake: Big Ten title
If Ohio State wins earlier in the day, Wisconsin likely controls its own destiny for the Big 10 title. If Michigan State loses, they definitely control their own destiny. If Ohio State loses and Michigan State wins, they will have already been eliminated.

North Carolina State at Maryland
3:30 p.m., ESPN2
At stake: ACC Atlantic division title
North Carolina State wins the ACC Atlantic if they beat Maryland. Florida State wins the division if Maryland wins.

Washington at Cal
3:30 p.m., FSN
At stake: bowl berths
Cal is 5-6 and needs a win to become bowl eligible. Washington is 4-6 and needs to beat Cal and Washington State to become bowl eligible.

TCU at New Mexico
4 p.m, Versus
At stake: BCS title
TCU needs a win to remain undefeated with a chance at a BCS title game. With a loss, they would likely not make any BCS bowl game and play in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Oregon State at Stanford
7:30 p.m., Versus
At stake: Pac-10 title, bowl berth
If Oregon loses Friday, Stanford needs a win to stay alive to win the Pac-10 title. Even if they cannot win the conference, they can earn an at-large BCS bowl berth if they finish 11-1. Oregon State is 5-5 and needs to beat Stanford or Oregon to become bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at USC
8 p.m., ABC
At stake: Champ Sports Bowl berth
If Notre Dame wins, they will finish 7-5 and play in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando against the ACC's 3^rd best team. If they lose, they will finish 6-6 and will play in a lower-level bowl as an at-large team, if a spot is open somwhere.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
8 p.m., ABC
At stake: Big XII South title
Oklahoma State wins the division with a win. Oklahoma wins the division with a win if Texas A&M loses Thursday night. If Oklahoma wins and Texas A&M wins Thursday night, there is a three-way tie and all hell breaks loose, again, in the Big XII South.

Georgia Tech at Georgia
8 p.m., ESPN
At stake: bowl berth
Georgia needs a win to become bowl eligible.

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It's Status Quo Saturday! Favorites Roll, Setting Up A Huge Thanksgiving Weekend

2010-11-19T11:17:00.000-05:00

Lines come from Bodog.com as of Friday morning. Check out TV listings in your area at Matt Sarz Sports or LSU Football.

Last week: 10-6-1
Best pick: 7-3
Overall: 78-80-2

Last week’s Worst Pick: I’m not sure what I was doing taking Texas +6 against a top ten team in Oklahoma State. I wrote that I couldn’t imagine a world where Texas fell to 4-6 and couldn’t beat Oklahoma State at home. Looks like we’re in that world…and it seems a lot like the world we were in last week. It turns out Texas is really, really terrible. You’d think I would’ve learned that after picking them so often and so unsuccessfully this year but consider my lesson learned.

I think we’re going to dub this weekend Status Quo Saturday. The top three teams in the BCS standings are off and, barring a monumental upset Friday night, all four will head into Thanksgiving weekend undefeated. There are a lot of competitive games this weekend, particularly in the Big Ten, but doesn’t it feel like the calm before the storm? There are so many potential showdowns headed our way next weekend – I think we’re going to be in store for a treat of weekend then. This weekend? Not so much.

But come on, it’s not like we’re going to stop watching football, right? And based on my record, if I’m saying something’s going to happen, then the complete opposite is bound to. So maybe we’ll look back at this weekend as Super Chaos Saturday. Damn, that’s a much cooler name…

BOISE STATE -30.5 over Fresno State, Friday, 9:30 p.m.
I wish I lived in Las Vegas so I could legally bet on Boise State every week and collect my winnings. How great would it have been to have actual money on the Broncos last week when they destroyed and humiliated Idaho? I hope Fresno State learned at least something from Idaho’s failure – namely, don’t start a pregame fight with possibly the best team in the country. If this game was in Fresno, I’d give the Bulldogs at least a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. But they’re not winning on the Smurf Turf. For all the SEC lovers, I would pay extremely good money to see Alabama or Florida head to Boise and try to beat them there. If the SEC really wants to make the Boise State’s and the TCU’s of the world go away – play ‘em and beat ‘em.

MICHIGAN +4.5 over Wisconsin, Noon
I’m making this pick based more on my emotional leaning in the game and that’s a recipe for disaster. Still, the Badgers deserve a comeuppance for their disgraceful performance last weekend. Spare me the “Indiana should’ve played defense” bullshit because the game was 52-13 in the third quarter. It should never have gotten to 70, much less 80. Michigan is all offense this year and I think this could be the weekend Rich-Rod gets his breakthrough victory for the maize and blue. They were close late against Michigan State and Iowa but failed to seal the deal. While Michigan fans would much rather see the breakthrough come against Ohio State next week, this is the one they’ll get. If they get them both, I think the Fire Rich-Rod bandwagon will empty completely. Or at least it should.

North Carolina State +3 over NORTH CAROLINA, Noon
This is a very odd game for North Carolina State. If Maryland wins against Florida State later in the day, this game means nothing. If Florida State wins, then NC State is in must-win mode or they will be eliminated. So while there’s a slim margin for error I’m sure coach Tom O’Brien is treating this as a must-win situation. But is that a good thing? UNC has nothing play for but pride and bowl positioning so you’d have to think they’d player a looser game. I still like NC State because UNC has been far too erratic and I think their victory over Florida State two weeks ago was their last hurrah. They simply ran out of gas and ended up getting trampled in the second half last week at home against Virginia Tech.

Pittsburgh +3 over SOUTH FLORIDA, Noon
The Big East Wheel of Destiny (tm Rece Davis) will take another spin Saturday as the nation’s most wide-open conference race starts to whittle down its contender. Maybe. USF is living large after knocking off Louisville on the road last week but if you watched, err suffered, through that game, you would know the game was a mirage. USF was out of the game until an insane kickoff return in which Louisville players missed about fourteen tackles. And Louisville coach Charlie Strong made the butt-headed decision to go for it on 4th and 1 in overtime despite USF’s offense showing no spark all game. Pitt, on the other hand, lost a game to UConn in which they outplayed the Huskies dramatically, save for the remarkable performance of UConn RB Jordan Todman. Pitt is the better team. Pitt’s BCS fate will be decided next Friday, aka the greatest weekday of college football ever, while USF’s hopes go poof on Saturday.

Ohio State -3 over IOWA, 3:30 p.m.
I want to like Iowa this week, I really do, I just don’t see them beating Ohio State. They were pretty dreadful against Northwestern, even when they were up 17-7, and they were even more dreadful the week before against Indiana. It’s looking more and more like Iowa’s win over Michigan State was the aberration and the losses to Arizona and Wisconsin more the status quo. And it’s a Status Quo Saturday! Ohio State knows it will play in the BCS somewhere if it wins out. They’ve also heard all the pundits criticizing them for a lack of quality wins. Iowa may not be a top ten team but they’re a ranked team and Ohio State will start quieting the critics with a big road victory.

NORTHWESTERN +7.5 over Illinois, 3:30 p.m.
The actual on-field result has already been overshadowed by the presence of GameDay, the novelty of a football game in Wrigley Field and the widowmaker of an end zone. Not to mention the fact Northwestern lost its starting QB, its leader and its best player in Dan Persa when he blew out his Achilles heel against Iowa. But I don’t know what Illinois did to deserve such a nice spread, considered it lost at home last week…to Minnesota! I don’t know if Northwestern will be able to pull out a victory but this is a one-score game down to the wire. It’s the first football game at Wrigley in something like six decades – the football Gods won’t let it be a blowout.

Stanford -7 over CAL, 3:30 p.m.
I’ve seen a few people tabbing Cal as a likely upset maker this weekend but I’m thinking the complete opposite. Last week, they took the number one team in the country to the final whistle and, truth be told, they should’ve won. Now we’re asking them to replicate that performance against another top ten team in a rivalry game, so you know Stanford is not going to be overlooking them. I think that is way too much to ask. Stanford is a legit team and, if anything, they were looking past Arizona State last week to get to this Cal game. That spells trouble for Cal.

Virginia Tech -3 over MIAMI, FL, 3:30 p.m.
I’m not getting off the Virginia Tech bandwagon until they lose again and I don’t think there’s an ACC team capable of beating team. Miami has actually improved since starting QB Jacory Harris was injured but this is still not a typical, quality Miami team. Well I guess it’s been a recently typical Miami team but that means 8-4 and that’s not going to get the job done against Va. Tech. The Hokies have been very impressive since the gag job against James Madison and is playing as one of the best teams in the country. Boise State’s win over Virginia Tech just narrowly trails Oregon’s win over Stanford as the best win of the season by anybody.

UConn +4 over SYRACUSE, 7 p.m.
This is a definite homer pick because I’ve already made plans to join the Huskies in Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl. Those tickets are refundable, right? UConn has a ton of momentum after two straight home victories but are winless on the road. Syracuse is undefeated in Big East play on the road, yet winless at home. Something has to give. It should be a very interesting game because both teams have great defenses and putrid offenses. The difference is that UConn has RB Jordan Todman and Syracuse doesn’t have an offensive weapon. This game will be ugly, brutal, tough to watch and close…and UConn will win.

Arkansas -3 over MISSISSIPPI STATE, 7 p.m.
BEST PICK OF THE WEEK! I’m almost ashamed to make this my pick of the week because it’s going to be such an easy Arkansas victory. Here’s a quick explanation of why: Arkansas is very, very good, Mississippi State is not. The Bulldogs have made definite strides this year but they’re not a top 25 team, at least not yet. They beat who they’re supposed to and they lose to who they’re supposed to. Alabama proved that last week and Arkansas will prove that this week. Even though everyone has forgotten about Arkansas if they win out and Auburn wins out, look for the Razorbacks to stroll into New Orleans for their first BCS bowl game.

Notre Dame -8 over Army, 7 p.m.
If Notre Dame hadn’t been blown out by Navy earlier this year, I’d give Army a fighting chance. Unfortunately for Army, Notre Dame did get blown out by Navy and its version of the triple option. Trust me, Notre Dame is not going to get defeated by the same scheme, no matter how unique, twice in the same year. For one, they may have realized the fullback is allowed to run with the football. Secondly, they were embarrassed and will be terribly motivated to prove the Navy game was an aberration. As for Army, this is an enormous game on national television but arguably the least important of its final three. Obviously the finale against Navy takes precedence and last week’s game against Kent State may have meant more since it made them bowl eligible for the first time since 1996. I’m not saying Army won’t show up – I’m just saying, they’re okay no matter the result. Notre Dame, on the other, cannot lose.

Florida State -4 over MARYLAND, 8 p.m.
Maryland has had a remarkably unremarkable year for a 7-3 team. They have one win over a team with a winning record and that was against Navy when the Midshipmen fumbled three times inside the five-yard and was stopped on a 4th and goal inside the one in the final minute. So basically, Maryland hasn’t beaten anybody. Florida State has been wildly inconsistent but with a win, they only need an NC State loss to head back to the ACC title game for the first time since 2005. Jimbo Fisher wanted to change the culture after Papa Bowden left and I envision Florida State winning this week to carry over a lot of momentum into its annual finale against Florida.

Oklahoma -7.5 over BAYLOR, 8 p.m.
Baylor is a good team, no doubt, but you get the feeling they’re running out of gas. They had so much momentum after beating Texas but they couldn’t sustain. Last week against Texas A&M, they came out like bats out of hell but, again, couldn’t sustain it in the second half. Oklahoma, on the other hand, appears to have rebounded from the mysteriously poor performance against A&M and is in great shape to win the Big XII South. They need to win this one to win a bigger one next week against Oklahoma State to win an even bigger one the following week against Nebraska. Oklahoma’s not losing the first one.

Nebraska -3 over TEXAS A&M, 8 p.m.
Nebraska, as crazy as it sounds, is still in the thick of the national title race. Seriously, if Oregon loses and Auburn loses to South Carolina, would voters put a 1-loss LSU team who didn’t win its conference or a 1-loss Nebraska team that did in the championship game? Les Miles can politick all he wants, the voters will go with Nebraska. But that’s off in the distance – I’m just saying Nebraska still has a ton of motivation, not to mention locking up the Big XII North. Texas A&M has had a remarkable turnaround this season but I just don’t see them continuing their run. I’m looking for an off week from them against Nebraska, followed by a huge performance against Texas.

SAN DIEGO STATE +3 over Utah, 10 p.m.
Did you see the games last week? San Diego State = good. Utah = not good. Handicapping can be so easy, right?

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Bowl Projections: Ohio State to Sugar, Boise to Rose, Notre Dame to...San Francisco?

2010-11-17T16:13:00.000-05:00

My bowl projections are based on the here and now, meaning I make no predictions on future games. This is simply what the bowl lineup would look like if the season ended today.

Teams that are underlined have accepted a bowl bid and teams with an asterisks* are there because the contracted conference could meet its obligation.

Some quick words before we get into this week’s projections. For starters, I have gone a little bit against what I usually like to do by projecting Boise State to finish ahead of TCU in the BCS standings. That seems to be the likely outcome if Boise wins out and it’d be stupid to do projections otherwise. Also, I believe it means TCU is on the verge of being shut out of the BCS bowl picture completely.

For some of the lower end bowls, I have put in a couple teams that need to win out to make a bowl, namely Tennessee and Georgia. They get the benefit of the doubt thanks to conference tie-ins. With so many bowls and tie-ins that go to conference’s 8th or 9th teams, there will definitely be a few at-large spots to fill.

Also, the Liberty Bowl could end up with an SEC/Big East matchup, sending the Conference USA champion to Hawaii if the BBVA Compass Bowl is short an SEC team. Make sense? Read more here: http://www.staradvertiser.com/sports/sportsnews/20101116_C-USA_champion_could_play_the_Warriors_in_Hawaii_Bowl.html

BCS Title Game
Jan. 10, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
#1 Oregon (10-0) vs. #2 Auburn (11-0)
We’re honing in on this matchup as the title game but I don’t think you’ll find too many people who believe these two teams will show up in the desert undefeated. The conventional thinking is that Oregon will win out but Auburn will lose to South Carolina or Alabama, opening up the door for Boise State to slip in. If both Auburn and Boise State slip up, then TCU slides in. I, though, have serious questions about TCU, and maybe even Boise State, leaping a one-loss Auburn team. Think about this scenario: Auburn loses a close game to Alabama on the road then comes back the next week to flatten South Carolina. The SEC has won four national titles in a row – will voters give them a chance for five? This becomes especially tricky if Boise State also loses since everyone is now hell-bent on not letting TCU play for a title after Utah’s fall at Notre Dame.

Sugar Bowl
Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#5 LSU (9-1) vs. #9 Ohio State (9-1)
I still believe the Sugar Bowl will be sorely tempted to take Boise State, if it’s available, since Boise will bring with it a ton of attention, good ratings and you know ESPN will want to hype the shit out of Boise State vs. the SEC. TCU, on the other hand, brings absolutely nothing to the table for the Sugar Bowl. There are rumblings out of New Orleans that the Sugar Bowl will take Ohio State no matter what if given the opportunity. It’ll be interesting to see if they would feel the same way about a 1-loss Michigan State or Wisconsin team. On the SEC side, there are four teams still in play. Auburn or South Carolina obviously go here if they win the SEC title, Auburn if it lost to Alabama. If Auburn goes to the title game, then LSU is here if it wins out. However, I could see Arkansas sneaking in here if they beat LSU. Alabama could make the BCS if it wins out but it wouldn’t be here, since they would’ve likely knocked Auburn from the title game.

Orange Bowl
Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#16 Virginia Tech (8-2) vs. #3 TCU (11-0)
As impressive as Virginia Tech has been, don’t think the Orange Bowl is wishing, hoping and praying for Florida State to emerge from the ACC and give the bowl a local tie-in to sell tickets. That will make their opponent choice much easier, since they can tab highly-rated TCU to provide a good on-field matchup. However, if Auburn loses and a second SEC team is available – I don’t think TCU has a chance in hell of being picked over Alabama, Arkansas or LSU. Also, if the Sugar Bowl passes on a Big Ten team for whatever reason, a Big Ten team is also another obvious choice. The last thing to keep an eye on is if the Orange Bowl thinks outside the box and goes for Stanford. That would be an option if Florida State wins the ACC, since it could conceivably sell the place out regardless of opponent and Stanford is a team with national appeal, especially if Andrew Luck ends up as a Heisman finalist.

Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Big XII Champion vs. BCS at-large
#8 Nebraska (9-1) vs. Pittsburgh (5-4)
The Fiesta Bowl, as things stand right now, will have absolutely no say in their selections. The Big XII champion is almost assured of not reaching the title game, meaning whoever wins the conference goes to this game. The Big XII title game is looking like Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or longshot Texas A&M. As for the at-large, the Fiesta Bowl picks last by virtue of hosting the title game so there’s almost no way around getting stuck with the Big East champion. If they could get West Virginia, they’d be marginally okay with that. UConn is a team that would bring a lot of fans, if not a lot of television ratings. Syracuse as Big East champion would be a fun story, even though the team is not good. Pitt and South Florida, who both don’t travel well, are doomsday scenarios. Who’s ready for Oklahoma State/South Florida??

Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Eligible non-BCS school must be replacement
#7 Wisconsin (9-1) vs. #4 Boise State (9-0)
There are seven teams available for two Rose Bowl slots and there are about a million different scenarios. The Big Ten side is actually rather easy as one of Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State will represent the conference and there’s a few dozen scenarios there. On the other side, it depends on Oregon. If Oregon is in the title game, this spot opens up. If they lose once, they go here. If they lose twice, Stanford goes here. The Oregon in the title game scenario, the most likely one, opens the door for TCU, Boise State and Stanford here. The Rose Bowl needs to take a non-BCS school but only the automatic qualifying non-BCS school. In short, if TCU or Boise State plays Oregon in the title game, the Rose Bowl will be free to take Stanford and pass the other non-BCS school over. There’s really only one team the Rose Bowl wants to avoid and that’s TCU. On the other hand, Boise State would be an undefeated, top-ranked, West Coast team with huge national appeal that could be playing for a share of the national title – I think the Rose Bowl would be cool with that.

New Mexico Bowl
Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MWC #4/#5
Boston College* (5-5) vs. BYU (5-5)
The Mountain West shares its last two picks between the New Mexico Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl. Since the latter has a backup agreement with Army it would really like to honor, BYU goes to New Mexico. Of course, if TCU is screwed out of the BCS, then all heck breaks loose, the Mountain West can fill all of its tie-ins…and BYU still ends up here. The WAC won’t fill this spot until Boise State loses or is screwed out of the BCS. I put Boston College here since they’re the only .500 BCS conference team that didn’t have a home.

Humanitarian Bowl
Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MAC #3
Fresno State (6-3) vs. Temple (8-3)
I switched the MAC representative from Ohio to Temple because due to the early date, there’s no way the MAC will want to send a championship game participant to Boise two weeks after the title game. Fresno State is the likely selection for the WAC since Hawaii is locked into its own bowl and they’ll want to give Nevada a better opponent in San Francisco.

New Orleans Bowl
Dec. 18, 9 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. Sun Belt Champion
Houston (5-5) vs. FIU (4-5)
Despite its losing record, FIU leads the Sun Belt Conference and controls its own destiny. I actually watched an FIU game when they almost beat Rutgers at home. In fact, if they didn’t have FIVE first half turnovers, they would’ve won the game. Houston seems to make the most sense from Conference USA from a geographically perspective.

I would like to mention here that I have no clue about the Conference USA projections. Their bowl bids are apparently divvied up by the conference honchos and there’s no pecking order. And you can Google news search information about every other conference’s bids but there’s almost nothing about the Conference USA bowls. It doesn’t help that the conference has about eight teams that are indistinguishable from each other.

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
C-USA vs. Big East #6
Southern Miss (7-3) vs. Louisville (5-5)
So as I mentioned above, who knows about Conference USA? Louisville makes sense from the Big East since it hasn’t played here before. It still needs one more win to get to 6-6 and the season finale against Rutgers could be a bowl play-in game for both.

Las Vegas Bowl
Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. MWC Champion
UCLA (4-5) vs. #23 Utah (8-2)
There seems to be some confusion and conflicting reports about whether the Las Vegas Bowl or the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl picks fifth in the Pac-10. Honestly, it might not matter since UCLA needs two more wins to get bowl eligible. The other 4-5 team, Oregon State, has to win two of three against ranked USC, Stanford and Oregon. Yikes. Utah could slip all the way to the Independence Bowl if they keep losing as an 8-4 season is suddenly, actually realistic.

Poinsettia Bowl
Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Navy vs. MWC #2
Navy (7-3) vs. San Diego State (7-3)
Navy is all set here. The other side is interesting since you know the Poinsettia Bowl is dying to get its hands on hometown San Diego State. But what if the Aztecs keep winning, beat Utah and end up 9-3? Why would the Las Vegas Bowl pass on them? And say BYU ends up 7-5, wouldn’t they be more attractive against Navy then an 8-4 Utah team? Air Force is a no-go since Navy is already here.

Hawaii Bowl
Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. C-USA #2-6
Hawaii (7-3) vs. SMU (5-5)
Hawaii is locked in here and, as mentioned above, there is a definite scenario that would send the Conference USA champion here for what would be a pretty good matchup as Hawaii will be favored to win its last three and end up 10-3. I know SMU was here last year but how would they pass up June Jones vs. Hawaii if that could happen?

Little Ceaser’s Pizza Bowl
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten #8 (Sun Belt backup) vs. MAC #1
Rutgers* (4-5) vs. Northern Illinois (8-2)
Northern Illinois has asserted itself as the best team in the MAC but the MAC bowl tie-ins leave a lot to be desired, especially since the Big Ten almost certainly won’t get a team here unless it fails to get a second in the BCS. And that’s extremely unlikely. That leaves the other slot open, which I’m giving to Rutgers for now. But if the Big East needs a team for the Liberty Bowl, this slot opens up again and I could see a Conference USA team like UTEP sliding in here. Notre Dame is actually a very remote possibility, but only if it had few – and I mean like no other – options at 6-6.

Independence Bowl
Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
ACC #7 vs. MWC #3
Clemson (5-5) vs. Air Force (7-4)
Air Force is almost guaranteed to go here unless TCU fails to make the BCS since San Diego State & Utah will split up the Mountain West’s first two bowls. The only thing that could change it is if BYU ends the season 7-5 and on a five-game winning streak. The ACC side of things is basically the leftovers and I think a 5-5 Clemson team is more appealing that 5-5 Georgia Tech and 5-5 Boston College, two schools not known for traveling to bowl games.

Champs Sports Bowl
Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Big East #2/Notre Dame vs. ACC #3
West Virginia (6-3) vs. #24 Miami, Fl (7-3)
There is now the very real chance that Notre Dame could run to 7-5 and get this spot. The bowl only can get Notre Dame once every four years and there’s no way in heck they would pass on them, especially with this year’s Big East crop of teams. For now though, let’s pencil the next logical pick in here as West Virginia would really have to fall apart down the stretch to fall from here. I know Miami was here last year but the other possibilities – NC State, Maryland and North Carolina – really don’t make any sense for this game.

Insight Bowl
Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5
#18 Texas A&M (7-3) vs. Penn State (6-4)
Even though Northwestern has the better record, I can’t imagine bowl organizers passing on Penn State since they haven’t played a bowl game in Arizona in ages. As for the other side of the equation, again Missouri has the better record and ranking but Texas A&M is the more nationally-known brand and I’m betting that its fans would be eager to travel to a game if Penn State was the opponent. The lesson as always – bowls are about money.

Military Bowl
Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #8 vs. C-USA #2-6
Georgia Tech (5-5) vs. East Carolina (6-4)
Nothing says college football like a mid-December bowl game at RFK Stadium in Washington, DC! Georgia Tech is the last ACC option at this point and would be marginally better than Boston College. East Carolina would be the closest Conference USA team to DC and they like to play ACC teams. That’s all I got here.

Texas Bowl
Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #6 vs. Big Ten #6
Baylor (7-4) vs. Northwestern (7-3)
Baylor is a pretty obvious choice as there are five ranked Big XII teams ahead of it and neither Kansas State or Texas Tech would do more for the game with worse records. Northwestern gets shuffled down here because Penn State and Michigan are more appealing. However, if the Wildcats can knock off Wisconsin in the season finale, all bets are off.

Alamo Bowl
Dec. 29, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #2 vs. Big XII #3
#6 Stanford (9-1) vs. #10 Oklahoma State (9-1)
There’s an ever-increasing chance that this game is going to produce a BCS-worthy matchup since Stanford will likely be 11-1 and likely shut out of the Rose Bowl. There’s a chance Stanford could be #3 and out of the BCS if Oregon lost a game and took up that spot. As for the other side of the equation, it’s looking like the game will get either Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Nebraska. I’m thinking the Cotton Bowl won’t pass on Oklahoma, so the higher-ranked Cowboys go here. I don’t know for sure the Big XII’s bowl rules – and really, rules are made to be broken – but I can’t see the Cotton Bowl passing on Oklahoma no matter what.

Armed Forces Bowl
Dec. 30, Noon, ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. MWC #4/5 or Army
Tulsa (7-3) vs. Army (6-4)
I’ve had this game set in stone for a little while now as it seems like the likely landing spot for Army and Tulsa makes the most sense from Conference USA. The bowl could also tap SMU but the game is in their home stadium so I can’t imagine them being too thrilled about that.

Pinstripe Bowl
Dec. 30, 3 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #7 vs. Big East #4
Kansas State (6-4) vs. UConn (5-4)
The Big East representative will be UConn, Syracuse or Rutgers. As of now, I have Syracuse going to Charlotte but if UConn wins against the Orange Saturday, you could pencil Syracuse in here and move UConn to Charlotte. Rutgers isn’t really an option unless Syracuse wins the Big East and UConn really, really falls apart. Kansas State is here due to the other likely bowl being the Texas Bowl and I don’t see them passing on getting Baylor in its first bowl game in 16 years. Besides, Kansas State and Bill Snyder provide just enough cache to make this an interesting matchup.

Music City Bowl
Dec. 30, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC #7 vs. ACC #6
Kentucky (6-5) vs. Maryland (7-3)
For weeks I had put Georgia here, but from what I’ve read, the Bulldogs are going to the Liberty Bowl if they get bowl eligible. Now if Tennessee also were to make itself bowl eligible, they would have beat Kentucky and create three 6-6 teams at the bottom of the SEC pecking order. So they’re another possibility. With the sixth ACC pick and six ACC teams currently with winning records, the Music City Bowl is going to get the leftover. And right now, that’s definitely Maryland. Of course, the Terps still control its own destiny to get to the Orange Bowl. Seriously, no shit.

Holiday Bowl
Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #3 vs. Big XII #5
#22 Arizona (7-3) vs. #15 Missouri (8-2)
The only way Arizona doesn’t play here is if Stanford makes the BCS and they get bumped up to the Alamo Bowl. So even though they played here last year, they’re basically a shoo-in for a repeat trip. The Big XII has five ranked teams and, as always, Missouri is the least attractive to bowl committees despite its sparkling record and top 15 ranking. If you recall, being constantly passed over for bowls is one of the reason Missouri wanted to leave the Big XII for the Big Ten. Welcome to your future Tigers fans…always playing second-fiddle to Texas schools.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN
ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
North Carolina State (7-3) vs. Syracuse (7-3)
The ACC side is dependent on the ACC title game since there’s no way the loser is going to come back and play in the same stadium. The ACC fought with the Gator Bowl over that and ended up losing that tie-in, so I can’t imagine them going through that again. So NC State makes the most sense, unless they lose the ACC title game. With NC State responsible for the ticket sales, Syracuse gets the Big East nod to give the game some national attention since Syracuse has been bowless since 2004. However, if the game is looking to sell tickets from the Big East, look for Louisville, UConn and West Virginia to be in the mix.

Sun Bowl
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
ACC #4 vs. Pac-10 #4
North Carolina (6-4) vs. Cal (5-5)
Something to consider: if the Stanford makes the BCS, Cal moves up to the Holiday Bowl and there’s a real chance the Pac-10 won’t be able to fill this slot. If so, Notre Dame will play here, guaranteed. Cal is the likely choice here unless UCLA wins out to finish 7-5. The ACC team is really whoever does the most for ratings since ticket sales will be nil for any ACC team and I like North Carolina there with Butch Davis, its NFL talent and all the ESPN coverage its received for its players’ transgressions. Why yes, cheating can be a good thing.

Liberty Bowl
Dec. 31, 38:30 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8/9 (Big East #5 backup)
UCF (7-3) vs. Georgia (5-6)
Like I mentioned above, this is Georgia’s likely landing if they beat Georgia Tech those it’d be hard for the Liberty Bowl to pass up Tennessee if the Vols get to six wins. UCF remains Conference USA’s best team despite losing last week and dropping out of the rankings.

Chick-fil-a Bowl
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
#25 Florida State (7-3) vs. #21 Mississippi State (7-3)
This is a fairly easy matchup to predict right now. There’s no way the Chick-fil-a Bowl would pass on Florida State since they haven’t had the Seminoles in ages. Mississippi State is the odd team out of the ranked SEC teams but Atlanta would love to have them to fill up the Georgia Dome. However, if the Bulldogs win out with a win over Arkansas, they would go to the Cotton Bowl and Arkansas would go here. Either way, it’s looking like this game will get another excellent matchup.

TicketCity Bowl
Jan. 1, Noon, ESPNU
Big XII #8 vs. Big Ten #7
Texas Tech (5-5) vs. Illinois (5-5)
I miss the Dallas Football Classic already. Illinois has to beat Northwestern or Fresno State – no easy task – to qualify for this game or make this another at-large bid. Wouldn’t it be funny if Notre Dame ended up here instead in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day? As for the Big XII, Texas Tech is the likely candidate though you know a 6-6 Texas would be music to bowl organizers’ ears. Wouldn’t it be really funny if this game was 6-6 Notre Dame vs. 6-6 Texas on New Year’s Day in front of 90,000 people…on ESPNU?

Outback Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
#20 Iowa (7-3) vs. #17 South Carolina (7-3)
South Carolina obviously has bigger fish to fry and is desperately hoping to end up in the Sugar Bowl. But an SEC title game loss would send them here, where they always seem to be. Iowa also seems to be here a lot but they could sneak into the Capital One Bowl if they beat Ohio State. Or they could be replaced here by Michigan if they lose another game. I think the Outback Bowl would prefer Michigan, don’t you think?

Capital One Bowl
Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2
#11 Alabama (8-2) vs. #12 Michigan State (9-1)
The Capital One Bowl basically has one side of its dream matchup set. Now it needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan, so it can choose either team to line up against Alabama. Not that Alabama/Michigan State would be a bad matchup at all. It’ll be interesting to see what would happen if Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama ends up 9-3. Those three teams are all interchangeable at this point.

Gator Bowl
Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
SEC #6 vs. Big Ten #4/5
Florida (6-4) vs. Michigan (7-3)
You can almost write Florida’s name here in pen. Even if Mississippi State falls apart, the best Florida can do is 8-4 and they’re not very attractive to bowls since their fans won’t want to travel. They did enough traveling for Tebow. But a trip to Jacksonville is doable. Michigan would be a lock for this game even if they finish 7-5 since they’re coming off of a bowl hiatus. They could move up dramatically though with showcase games against Wisconsin and Ohio State to finish the year.

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
MAC vs. Sun Belt #2
Ohio (8-3) vs. Troy (5-4)
And for the sixth week in a row, this is projected to be the worst bowl game of them all. Congrats!

Cotton Bowl
Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Big XII #2 vs. SEC #3/4
#14 Oklahoma (8-2) vs. #13 Arkansas (8-2)
I can’t see the Cotton Bowl passing on Oklahoma if they get the chance to have the Sooners for the first time since 2001. The strength of the SEC West opens up a lot of possibilities for this game as there are five ranked teams in the division, including Auburn, that could end up here. And all of them would make for a tremendous game. I’m thinking Fox executives are starting to get really, really excited about its decision to move this game to primetime.

BBVA Compass Bowl
Jan. 8, Noon, ESPN
SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5
Tennessee (4-6) vs. USF (6-3)
That’s not a type, that’s the new name of the game. If Tennessee doesn’t win out and this spot goes vacant, basically all hell breaks loose with bowl tie-ins involving the Big East, SEC and Conference USA. We’ll keep it simple for now. The Big East team here will either be Louisville or USF, with the other teams only possibilities if the bowl has nowhere else to turn to.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. WAC
Notre Dame* (5-5) vs. #18 Nevada (9-1)
This game makes the most sense for Notre Dame for two reasons. One, it’s a primetime slot on ESPN with no competition and likely a huge football audience hungering (no pun intended) for more football after the NFL playoffs. Secondly, it’ll definitely provide Notre Dame with its best opponent in either Nevada or, gulp, Boise State. Or the Pac-10 can have enough bowl eligible teams and we’ll see a mediocre 6-6 UCLA team here.

Yes, I know 6-6 Notre Dame would be mediocre team but come on, they’d be more fun!

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