Regular Season Record: 107-94-3
Bowl Record: 17-17
Best Picks: 13-3
Auburn -3 over Oregon
BCS Championship Game
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
I want everyone to realize that I hope everything I right doesn’t come true. College football has fallen into a bit of a rut when it comes to title games since the transcendent 2006 Rose Bowl between Texas and USC. Florida and LSU handled Ohio State easily in the next two title games. Oklahoma/Florida was a close game for three quarters but poorly played and tough to watch. Last year’s title game had one moment when Texas had gotten it within one score in the second half but, let’s be honest, that game was over the second Colt McCoy went down.
I want an all-time classic tonight. I want touchdowns every minute. I want LaMichael James to go for over 200 yards, only to be matched by Cam Newton. I want every fan’s voice hoarse from screaming too much. I want to go to bed early Tuesday morning in that familiar trance you’re in after a fantastic game – the type that stays on your mind and you have to talk about it with co-workers the next morning.
The problem, though, is that Auburn is going to crush Oregon. And it’s not going to be pretty.
This prediction is not about the supposed advantage the SEC has on every other conference college football. TCU proved New Year’s Day that competition during the regular season is little indicator of a team’s worth – blowing out inferior teams by 50 can be the same as beating good teams by a field goal. You can make the argument that Auburn would be more familiar with the big game atmosphere but even the Iron Bowl can’t prepare a team for college football’s Super Bowl.
No, it’s not the intangibles that make this an easy victory. It’s actually two specific advantages that Auburn has over Oregon that will fuel the Tigers – defensive line and endurance.
Oregon received by far its stiffest test of the year from Cal in early November as the Cal defensive line, with some help from faked injuries, were able to effectively slow the Oregon offense to a crawl. Cal was a mediocre 5-7 team that got embarrassed by Nevada and Stanford during the year. But against Oregon, they were able to control the line of scrimmage and effectively plug the Oregon running game early, preventing LaMichael James and company to get into the open field, where they are able to use their speed and elusiveness.
When you watched Auburn this year, two things become readily apparent on defense – they couldn’t defend the pass but they weren’t extremely hard to handle on the line of scrimmage. Look at the difference between the Arkansas and Alabama games. Despite facing the backup quarterback from Arkansas, the Tigers could not stop the passing attack and the Razorbacks shredded Auburn for 43 points. Of course, when you have Cam Newton and put up 65, that 43 gets the job done. But for a passing team – that would’ve been an indicator of success to come.
Alabama, of course, is not a passing team. After a hot start, Auburn was able to successfully put the clamps down on the vaunted Alabama running game by securing the line of scrimmage. Eventually, Auburn knocked Alabama QB Greg McElroy out of the game and won a spirited Iron Bowl. The much-maligned Auburn defense had come up huge yet again, but it was lost in the virtuoso performance put on by Cam Newton.
Against Oregon, Auburn is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Yes, Oregon isn’t going to be ramming it down Auburn’s throat but they need to move the defensive line to get its running game going. Those holes aren’t going to be there early. And they won’t be there later.
Oregon’s biggest advantage is how its tempo on offense wears down opponents and, with its opportunistic defense, the second half and fourth quarter become Oregon’s domain. We saw in the showdown against Stanford where the Ducks withstood Stanford’s early blows and subsequently blew the Cardinal’s doors off in the second half. They did the same to Tennessee. They did the same to Arizona. They didn’t score a point in the first quarter against Washington – they ended up scored 53 in the next three.
For the first time this season, though, Oregon will be facing a team that is just as adept at finishing strong. How many fourth quarter wins did Auburn pull out this year? Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama…the list goes on. Auburn has no issue with tempo. Auburn has no problem going the full 60, and longer if needed, to secure a victory. To put it bluntly – Oregon won’t wear down Auburn.
The key to this game is squarely on the Oregon offense and its ability to stay on the field. I don’t mean they need to stay on the field for 10 minute drives. They do need to stay on the field for at least a few first downs on each possession. They need to get their tempo going and they need to make the Auburn defense work. A three-and-out here and there will effectively eliminate any chance Oregon has at wearing down Auburn.
In the end, this game will likely be decided by the fact Oregon does not have a championship defense. Auburn’s defense, when push came to shove, proved its championship worth when it shut down Alabama, when it slowed down LSU and when it put the clamps on Clemson, South Carolina and Mississippi State late in close games. It wasn’t always pretty but it was effective. Do you trust Oregon’s defense to make a stop with the game on the line? Do you trust Auburn’s?
And at the end of the day, there is another huge advantage tilting in Auburn’s favor and his name is Cam Newton. We saw in the 2006 Rose Bowl that a clash of two juggernauts was decided by the better quarterbacks.
Even if this game is a close one, against my prediction, Oregon still doesn’t have an answer for Newton. They shouldn’t feel bad, of course, as no one has had an answer for Newton. But if superior defenses like LSU and Alabama were helpless against Newton – what will Oregon’s subpar defense bring to the table? Not enough.
It should be Auburn by a lot. It may be Auburn by a little. But it will be Auburn. And you can cue the “S-E-C” chants for another long, nine months until we kick off the 2011 season.
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Bowl Record: 17-17
Best Picks: 13-3
Auburn -3 over Oregon
BCS Championship Game
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
I want everyone to realize that I hope everything I right doesn’t come true. College football has fallen into a bit of a rut when it comes to title games since the transcendent 2006 Rose Bowl between Texas and USC. Florida and LSU handled Ohio State easily in the next two title games. Oklahoma/Florida was a close game for three quarters but poorly played and tough to watch. Last year’s title game had one moment when Texas had gotten it within one score in the second half but, let’s be honest, that game was over the second Colt McCoy went down.
I want an all-time classic tonight. I want touchdowns every minute. I want LaMichael James to go for over 200 yards, only to be matched by Cam Newton. I want every fan’s voice hoarse from screaming too much. I want to go to bed early Tuesday morning in that familiar trance you’re in after a fantastic game – the type that stays on your mind and you have to talk about it with co-workers the next morning.
The problem, though, is that Auburn is going to crush Oregon. And it’s not going to be pretty.This prediction is not about the supposed advantage the SEC has on every other conference college football. TCU proved New Year’s Day that competition during the regular season is little indicator of a team’s worth – blowing out inferior teams by 50 can be the same as beating good teams by a field goal. You can make the argument that Auburn would be more familiar with the big game atmosphere but even the Iron Bowl can’t prepare a team for college football’s Super Bowl.
No, it’s not the intangibles that make this an easy victory. It’s actually two specific advantages that Auburn has over Oregon that will fuel the Tigers – defensive line and endurance.
Oregon received by far its stiffest test of the year from Cal in early November as the Cal defensive line, with some help from faked injuries, were able to effectively slow the Oregon offense to a crawl. Cal was a mediocre 5-7 team that got embarrassed by Nevada and Stanford during the year. But against Oregon, they were able to control the line of scrimmage and effectively plug the Oregon running game early, preventing LaMichael James and company to get into the open field, where they are able to use their speed and elusiveness.
When you watched Auburn this year, two things become readily apparent on defense – they couldn’t defend the pass but they weren’t extremely hard to handle on the line of scrimmage. Look at the difference between the Arkansas and Alabama games. Despite facing the backup quarterback from Arkansas, the Tigers could not stop the passing attack and the Razorbacks shredded Auburn for 43 points. Of course, when you have Cam Newton and put up 65, that 43 gets the job done. But for a passing team – that would’ve been an indicator of success to come.
Alabama, of course, is not a passing team. After a hot start, Auburn was able to successfully put the clamps down on the vaunted Alabama running game by securing the line of scrimmage. Eventually, Auburn knocked Alabama QB Greg McElroy out of the game and won a spirited Iron Bowl. The much-maligned Auburn defense had come up huge yet again, but it was lost in the virtuoso performance put on by Cam Newton.
Against Oregon, Auburn is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Yes, Oregon isn’t going to be ramming it down Auburn’s throat but they need to move the defensive line to get its running game going. Those holes aren’t going to be there early. And they won’t be there later.
Oregon’s biggest advantage is how its tempo on offense wears down opponents and, with its opportunistic defense, the second half and fourth quarter become Oregon’s domain. We saw in the showdown against Stanford where the Ducks withstood Stanford’s early blows and subsequently blew the Cardinal’s doors off in the second half. They did the same to Tennessee. They did the same to Arizona. They didn’t score a point in the first quarter against Washington – they ended up scored 53 in the next three.
For the first time this season, though, Oregon will be facing a team that is just as adept at finishing strong. How many fourth quarter wins did Auburn pull out this year? Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama…the list goes on. Auburn has no issue with tempo. Auburn has no problem going the full 60, and longer if needed, to secure a victory. To put it bluntly – Oregon won’t wear down Auburn.
The key to this game is squarely on the Oregon offense and its ability to stay on the field. I don’t mean they need to stay on the field for 10 minute drives. They do need to stay on the field for at least a few first downs on each possession. They need to get their tempo going and they need to make the Auburn defense work. A three-and-out here and there will effectively eliminate any chance Oregon has at wearing down Auburn.
In the end, this game will likely be decided by the fact Oregon does not have a championship defense. Auburn’s defense, when push came to shove, proved its championship worth when it shut down Alabama, when it slowed down LSU and when it put the clamps on Clemson, South Carolina and Mississippi State late in close games. It wasn’t always pretty but it was effective. Do you trust Oregon’s defense to make a stop with the game on the line? Do you trust Auburn’s?
And at the end of the day, there is another huge advantage tilting in Auburn’s favor and his name is Cam Newton. We saw in the 2006 Rose Bowl that a clash of two juggernauts was decided by the better quarterbacks.Even if this game is a close one, against my prediction, Oregon still doesn’t have an answer for Newton. They shouldn’t feel bad, of course, as no one has had an answer for Newton. But if superior defenses like LSU and Alabama were helpless against Newton – what will Oregon’s subpar defense bring to the table? Not enough.
It should be Auburn by a lot. It may be Auburn by a little. But it will be Auburn. And you can cue the “S-E-C” chants for another long, nine months until we kick off the 2011 season.
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