Teams that are underlined have accepted a bowl bid and teams with an asterisks* are there because the contracted conference could meet its obligation.
BCS Title GameJan. 10, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
#1 Auburn (12-0) vs. #2 Oregon (11-0)
We’re one week away from the matchup that has been penciled in for weeks and yet I still don’t get the feeling this will be our eventual national title matchup. It’s sort of interesting how these two have been on a collision course since late October, but it lacks the feeling that Texas/USC in 2005 or even Texas vs. Florida/Alabama had last year. This will likely be our national title game but there seems to be the notion that they aren’t really the two best teams, as they haven’t really separated themselves from TCU, Wisconsin or Stanford. It doesn’t really matter – they win on Saturday and they’re in. I don’t think there will be too much BCS bashing, at least for the title game, if only TCU gets left out. Even if it’s TCU against one of these teams, I can’t see too much consternation since Stanford and Wisconsin have both beaten only one ranked team, the same number as TCU. Now if both Auburn & Oregon lose Saturday? Watch out.
Sugar BowlJan. 4, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#7 Arkansas (10-2) vs. #6 Ohio State (11-1)
A fairly simple matchup to predict. Ohio State is definitely going here unless all heck breaks loose, Wisconsin ends up in the title game and they end up in Pasadena. That’s probably not going to happen and there’s no way that the Sugar Bowl is going to pass up a one-loss Ohio State team with its at-large selection. On the other side, Ohio State will either play Arkansas if Auburn wins or South Carolina if the Gamecocks pull of the upset. So very, very simple. Almost too simple…
Orange BowlJan. 3, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC Champion vs. BCS at-large
#15 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. UConn (7-4)
Here’s where things get tricky as the result of the ACC title game and the Big East conference race will dramatically impact how this game goes. The at-large selection for the Orange Bowl will be between two teams that must receive bids – the Big East champion and Stanford, by virtue of finishing in the top 4. If Virginia Tech wins the ACC title game, the bowl needs to make sure its stadium is full and I think will go with the Big East champion, whether its UConn or West Virginia. They may pick Stanford over UConn but they then run the risk of having a bowl game in front of 40,000 people. If Florida State wins the ACC title game, it’s a no-brainer and they pick Stanford regardless of who wins the Big East.
Fiesta BowlJan. 1, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Big XII Champion vs. BCS at-large
#9 Oklahoma (10-2) vs. #4 Stanford (11-1)
The Big XII champion will obviously be Nebraska or Oklahoma and the winner is obviously headed here. The Fiesta Bowl picks last so it gets either Stanford or the Big East champion, whichever the Orange Bowl passes on. Stanford can’t sell out its own stadium so it’s not really a draw for bowls, but the Fiesta would be in a better position to handle them than the Orange Bowl, since Oklahoma or Nebraska would likely bringing 20,000+ easy. If this game gets stuck with UConn, will the Big XII champion bring as many fans?
Rose BowlJan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-10 Champion
Eligible non-BCS school must be replacement
#5 Wisconsin (11-1) vs. #3 TCU (12-0)
Another BCS game that is practically locked into place assuming all goes according to plan Saturday. Wisconsin will be the Big Ten’s BCS champion and will go to the Rose Bowl. Since Oregon is off to the title game, TCU slides in here. If Oregon loses, they would fall here and TCU would likely move up to the title game. If Auburn loses, then Stanford moves up here to replace TCU, who goes to the title game. And if both Oregon & Auburn lose, the BCS effectively blows up and who knows who goes where. If you’re a fan of BCS chaos, that’s really your last hope at this point.
New Mexico BowlDec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MWC #4/#5
UTEP* (6-6) vs. BYU (6-6)
BYU is practically locked into this game since the Armed Forces Bowl really, really wants to get its hands on Army. The other side of the equation should be a WAC team but I’m predicting the WAC to maneuver its teams around to maximize matchups. Look, the WAC may not be a conference in two years, who cares about bowl tie-ins? UTEP steps in here since it's about four hours away from campus. Conference USA will swap in an at-large team for its New Orleans Bowl berth.
Humanitarian BowlDec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. MAC #3
Fresno State (7-4) vs. Toledo (8-4)
I highly doubt that Boise State will get stuck here as some have surmised. Fresno State could end up in the New Mexico Bowl to free this spot up for an at-large but I feel like Boise State wouldn’t let that happen. This game could get Boise or Nevada, however, if the MAC offers up its best team, #25 Northern Illinois, to create a ranked matchup. A longshot but possible.
New Orleans BowlDec. 18, 9 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. Sun Belt Champion
Ohio U* (8-4) vs. FIU (6-5)
FIU has to win its last game to secure this spot. If they don't, then Middle Tennessee State would get to six wins and would take this spot, sending FIU to Detroit. UTEP was eyed here but would bring nobody. And the MAC needs a team here to avoid a MAC vs. MAC bowl game somewhere.
Beef O’Brady’s BowlDec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
C-USA vs. Big East #6
Southern Miss (8-4) vs. Pitt (6-5)
Southern Miss will apparently officially accept a bid here Tuesday afternoon, which makes sense. Pitt drops like a rock down the Big East bowls because it fail way short of expectations and their fans don’t travel for them anyway. If West Virginia ends up winning the Big East, everything gets changed. And remember, Pitt can still win the Big East and play in the BCS. Yes, yes they can.
Las Vegas BowlDec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. MWC Champion
#17 Nevada* (11-1) vs. #21 Utah (10-2)
I don’t know how logical this is but I’ve read about it enough that I’m going with it. Utah is a lock for this game. The Pac-10 will have nothing for them so they look to Nevada and, somehow, this bowl ends up with a Pac-12 (Utah) vs. Mountain West (Nevada) matchup. The Las Vegas Bowl would rather have Boise State but there's no way the game in San Francisco is going to give up Boise State unless they're getting something big in return.
Poinsettia BowlDec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Navy vs. MWC #2
Navy (8-3) vs. San Diego State (8-4)
The first game locked up on both sides of the equation. It'd been penciled in for months and was finally made official after the Las Vegas Bowl took Utah. That left San Diego State and an easy decision. This will almost certainly be this bowl game's biggest crowd and probably by a lot.
Hawaii BowlDec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
WAC vs. C-USA #2-6
Hawaii (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Hawaii is set here and bowl organizers are now trying to get the best opponent for the Warriors, who are ranked in the Top 25. If UCF wins the Conference USA championship game, that leaves 9-3 Tulsa as the best bet for this game. If SMU wins, then Tulsa would head to the Armed Forces Bowl and UCF would head to the island to play Hawaii. So this game will be Hawaii vs. Tulsa or Hawaii vs. UCF.
Little Ceaser’s Pizza BowlDec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten #8 (Sun Belt backup) vs. MAC #1
Boston College* (7-5) vs. #25 Northern Illinois (10-2)
This is where the projections get tricky. If Middle Tennessee State wins Saturday, they’ll get to six wins and they would be contractually obligated to play here. Or at least a Sun Belt team would play here, not necessarily them. If that happens, I’d assume Northern Illinois gets shipped to somewhere better. As is, they stay here to play Boston College, who is the ACC’s ugly duckling again. Normally, BC would be ticked off to play in Detroit but they get a ranked opponent so they suffer through it.
Independence BowlDec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
ACC #7 vs. MWC #3
Clemson (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4)
Air Force is a lock for this game and the announcement has been made before this weekend’s games. The ACC has a ton of mediocre teams and I like Clemson here just because they’re more likely to travel some folks than Georgia Tech or Boston College.
Champs Sports BowlDec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Big East #2/Notre Dame vs. ACC #3
#24 West Virginia (8-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
There’s a lot of talk that Notre Dame is a lock for this game. If they were a lock, the Champs Sports Bowl would’ve already invited because there’s nothing stopping them from doing so. I strongly believe the Champs Sports Bowl wants a ranked, 9-3 West Virginia team if they can get them. They only get Notre Dame once over the next four years. If this was the 3rd or 4th year of the contract, then obviously they take them. Instead, they could get the Big East’s most attractive team and still keep the Notre Dame door open. If West Virginia gets the BCS, then Notre Dame goes here. On the ACC side, NC State is easily the most attractive team. They could go to Maryland if Notre Dame is on the other side – Maryland/West Virginia would be a rematch.
Insight BowlDec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #4 vs. Big Ten #4/5
#13 Nebraska (10-2) vs. Michigan (7-5)
So how does Nebraska fall all the way here? For starters, the Cotton Bowl will pass on them since they will have just played the Big XII title game in the same stadium. And I believe the Alamo Bowl passes on them since they’re stuck with Arizona and I don’t think Nebraska wants to play the same team in a bowl again. So instead, they go to Arizona to play a mega-matchup against Michigan in a battle of soon-to-be conference rivals. Prior to BC joining the ACC, that conference set up a similar matchup in Charlotte with North Carolina as a showcase for the new conference. This is like that except 100 times bigger.
Military BowlDec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #8 vs. C-USA #2-6
Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
This game picks last from the ACC and will get to choose between 6-6 Georgia Tech and 7-5 Boston College. Joy. East Carolina is a lock for this game and the obvious announcement was made on Tuesday. There's a lot of chatter that Maryland falls to here to help sell tickets but I can't imagine that happening.
Texas BowlDec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #6 vs. Big Ten #6
Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-5)
Baylor & Texas Tech are both 7-5 and will likely split the bids for this game and the TicketCity Bowl New Year’s morning in Dallas. Since I think Baylor is the better story, they get slotted slightly higher. Illinois may need to win its finale against Fresno State to lock up this game, or they could fall to the TicketCity Bowl as well, swapping with Northwestern.
Alamo BowlDec. 29, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #2 vs. Big XII #3
#23 Arizona (7-4) vs. #14 Oklahoma State (10-2)
With two Pac-10 teams in the BCS, Arizona ends up here by default since it’s possible there’s literally no other team from the conference eligible. Since Arizona is here, Nebraska won’t want to play them again and Oklahoma State always brings a ton of fans to the Alamo Bowl anyway. The Alamo Bowl is probably still holding out hope for Stanford to fall out of the BCS and end up here. Not going to happen.
Armed Forces BowlDec. 30, Noon, ESPN
C-USA #2-6 vs. MWC #4/5 or Army
SMU (7-5) vs. Army (6-5)
For a while, I thought this game wouldn’t want SMU since the game is played in SMU’s stadium this year but I was wrong. If SMU loses the Conference USA championship game, they will end up here. If they win, they go to the Liberty Bowl and Tulsa plays Army.
Pinstripe BowlDec. 30, 3 p.m., ESPN
Big XII #7 vs. Big East #4
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kansas State has been headed here for months and nothing has really changed since the bowls in Texas will want Baylor and Texas Tech, leaving the Wildcats for New York. Likewise, Syracuse has been ticketed to this game for a while and it makes the most sense. UConn is also a slight chance if they lose to South Florida but I think Syracuse makes far more sense for the new game.
Music City BowlDec. 30, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
SEC #7 vs. ACC #6
Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Tennessee got its much-needed sixth win and I can’t imagine any scenario where a bowl in Nashville would pass up the Volunteers. If it gets North Carolina on the other side, they could be looking at a sell-out. UNC could also be headed to the Sun Bowl but I think that bowl will still take Miami, despite its chaotic coaching situation. In any state, Miami’s football team moves the needle.
Holiday BowlDec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #3 vs. Big XII #5
Washington (5-6) vs. #12 Missouri (8-2)
Congrats Missouri, you won ten games and may end up ranked in the top ten. Your reward? A 6-6 Pac-10 team! At least Washington can trot out Jake Locker as a reason why people should care about this game. If Washington loses Saturday to Washington State, this becomes an at-large spot and you can look for Notre Dame, an ACC team and Boise State/Nevada to be in the mix to set up a really good matchup.
Meineke Car Care BowlDec. 31, Noon, ESPN
ACC #5 vs. Big East #3
Maryland (8-4) vs. Louisville (6-6)
This is obviously dependent on the Champs Sports Bowl passing on Notre Dame. If they don’t, then West Virginia goes here and the ACC team changes. I think, since this bowl’s director has publicly stated he’d be okay with another West Virginia/Maryland bowl rematch, like they did at the 2004 Gator Bowl. Louisville is a very attractive team since the fanbase is pumped up about new coach Charlie Strong so they’d travel well and they haven’t played in Charlotte before. Maryland could end up in Orlando or even the Sun Bowl, but this seems to be the most likely landing spot for now.
Sun BowlDec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
ACC #4 vs. Pac-10 #4
Miami, Fla. (7-5) vs. Temple* (8-4)
Why Miami? Why not? The Sun Bowl gets great local support so it cares mostly about TV viewers for CBS. Miami will mean more to casual fans than Maryland or North Carolina. The game desperately wants Notre Dame but the Irish have better options. The Sun Bowl director has said he wants Notre Dame or a Big East team to play Miami. I'm not sure if that's going to work out unless UConn loses Saturday and Notre Dame takes the Champs Sports Bowl. That will leave a Big East team, likely UConn available. Also, it could be moot because Oregon State or Washington would go here if both teams win Saturday.
Liberty BowlDec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
C-USA #1 vs. SEC #8/9 (Big East #5 backup)
UCF (9-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
The Conference USA champion will play here, either UCF or SMU. The SEC side is practically locked in to Georgia since Tennessee will be taken and Georgia is far more attractive than Kentucky.
Chick-fil-a BowlDec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
ACC #2 vs. SEC #5
#21 Florida State (9-3) vs. #22 Mississippi State (8-4)
Yet another game that seems set in stone. The bowl has basically announced it’s going to take the loser of Florida State/Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, no matter what. On the other side, I don’t foresee any scenario where the SEC team isn’t Mississippi State.
TicketCity BowlJan. 1, Noon, ESPNU
Big XII #8 vs. Big Ten #7
Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Northwestern (7-5)
As mentioned above, this game and the Texas Bowl are going to split up four teams – Texas Tech & Baylor on the Big XII side, Illinois & Northwestern on the Big Ten side. The Texas Bowl picks first on both sides so this game gets left with whatever teams are unwanted by that game.
Outback BowlJan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4
Penn State (7-5) vs. #19 South Carolina (9-3)
No one will be rooting harder for South Carolina than the Outback Bowl. If South Carolina loses as expected, they will certainly end up here. However, if they win, that pushes Arkansas out of the BCS and likely pushes LSU or Alabama down to this game. No disrespect to South Carolina, but a 9-4 Gamecock team coming off of a loss is a tad less attractive than Alabama or LSU. Penn State moves up to this game since the Big Ten has three 7-5 teams and both Iowa and Michigan have ended the season with a thud.
Capital One BowlJan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
SEC #2 vs. Big Ten #2
#16 Alabama (9-3) vs. #8 Michigan State (11-1)
If Auburn wins, this game will choose between LSU & Alabama. Despite LSU’s better record and win over Alabama, they were here last year and Alabama hasn’t since the mid-1990’s. If South Carolina wins the SEC title, I think Arkansas would be the pick here, though it could still be Alabama. Michigan State is locked here.
Gator BowlJan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
SEC #6 vs. Big Ten #4/5
Florida (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)
These teams always seem to play in bowls, no? Florida is locked here unless the Chick-fil-a Bowl makes a very surprising decision. Iowa could go to the Outback Bowl but the loss to Minnesota really sends them plummeting. It wouldn’t totally surprise me if this ended up Florida/Michigan.
GoDaddy.com BowlJan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
MAC vs. Sun Belt #2
Miami, Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (6-5)
I had Ohio here for a while but they get moved since Miami, Ohio will be playing the MAC title game and shouldn’t have to play its bowl two weeks later. Troy seems to be set here unless Middle Tennessee gets to six wins, then the Sun Belt could do some shuffling.
Cotton BowlJan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Big XII #2 vs. SEC #3/4
#18 Texas A&M (9-3) vs. #10 LSU (10-2)
The Cotton Bowl doesn’t want the Big XII title game loser and a hot Texas A&M team is a license to print money in Texas. The SEC side will be one of Arkansas, Alabama and LSU. Since the Capital One Bowl doesn’t want LSU again, they’ll land here.
BBVA Compass BowlJan. 8, Noon, ESPN
SEC #8/9 vs. Big East #5
Kentucky (6-6) vs. USF (7-4)
If USF can spring the upset against UConn Saturday, they may move up to the bowl game in Charlotte but this may be their landing spot regardless. Kentucky is stuck here since no other SEC bowl wants them.
Kraft Fight Hunger BowlJan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Pac-10 #5 vs. WAC
Notre Dame (7-5) vs. #11 Boise State (11-1)
MAKE THIS HAPPEN! If the Champs Sports Bowl passes on Notre Dame, they become a highly-sought after free agent. This game, with Boise State, can provide the best opponent and the biggest spotlight. What kind of crazy ratings would this game get after a day of NFL Playoffs??
Besides the Champs Sports Bowl picking Notre Dame, the other thing getting in the way of this game would be Notre Dame’s motives. Would they rather play in the Sun Bowl against a middle of the road ACC team in an effort to get a big bowl win? Or do they challenge themselves?
It also appears this game has a backup agreement with the ACC but I'm still holding out hope for a deal behind the scenes. Boise State deserves better than Boston College.
If this game happens, it would be the biggest non-BCS bowl game, well, ever maybe. Please, please, please make this happen.
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