Lines come from Bodog.com as of Thursday evening. Check out TV listings in your area at Matt Sarz Sports or LSU Football.
Last week: 12-6
Best pick: 9-3
Overall: 100-90-3
Last week’s Worst Pick: What a glorious week I had last week. It guarantees me a winning regular season as long as I don’t go 0-11 this week. And every game I lost was within a touchdown of covering. So the Worst Pick isn’t really that terrible but what I was thinking taking Texas? I think I’ve picked them incorrectly about five times this year and the one time I did pick against them, they beat Nebraska. Thank God they don’t play another game this year.
Northern Illinois -18 over Miami, Ohio, 7 p.m., Friday
I don’t think there has been a hotter team in college football over the past few weeks than Northern Illinois, who stamped the end of their regular season by putting up 70 points against Eastern Michigan. They had a Tuesday MACtacular showcase in November against Toledo for the division crown and they annihilated the Rockets. Miami, Ohio is a great story as second-year coach Mike Haywood has engineered a truly remarkable turnaround from one win last year to eight wins this year. Unfortunately, Miami has not played well against good teams – getting destroyed by Missouri and Cincinnati. Yes, they did play well for a half against Florida in week one but this is different. Northern Illinois will come out focus and cement their status as the MAC’s best team in 2010.
FRESNO STATE +6 over Illinois, 10:15 p.m., Friday
What an intriguing game here. Both teams are practically locked into mid-tier bowl games – what’s the motivation? Illinois has very little. Fresno State, though, has its constant motivation of beating a team from a BCS conference. And, if you remember, Fresno State won last year’s December matchup at Illinois is ridiculous fashion, with an offensive lineman catching the winning two-point conversion play. This game means a lot for Fresno State. Even with revenge on their minds, can Illinois really get that fired up for a cross-country trip that means nothing?
Pittsburgh +2 over CINCINNATI, Noon
My oh my, have things gone south for Pitt. A month ago, they had a two-game lead in the Big East. A week ago, they controlled their own destiny. Today, they have almost no chance at the BCS and will likely be relegated to a low-end bowl like the Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl. Still, they shouldn’t be favored over a Cincinnati team that just got drilled by three touchdowns by UConn. With no bowl to play for, I don’t see Cincinnati coming out with that much fire while Pitt really needs a win to convince its fans that the team hasn’t gone complete in the tank. And Dave Wannstedt might need a win to save his job since a 6-6 season would go over like a fart in church.
WEST VIRGINIA -20.5 over Rutgers, Noon
This is one of those “they couldn’t make the line high enough” games and I’m shocked the spread is only three touchdowns. Rutgers has quit on this season. They gave up 69 points to Cincinnati. They got hammered by Louisville last week. They’re obviously not into football after the Eric LeGrand tragedy during the Army game and, honestly, I can’t blame them. But from a football standpoint, West Virginia is ranked, on a roll and getting ready to possibly play in a BCS bowl game. Rutgers just wants the season to end. Who do you think is going to win?
Smu +9 over UCF, Noon
This is actually one of the games I’m looking forward to this weekend because of the SMU story. How can you not be enthralled with them? They are an awful program for the two decades following the Death Penalty. Then June Jones shows up. Then they win their first bowl game in a quarter century. And now they can win their first conference title since 1984. How cool is that? UCF is a very strong team and they get the title game at home by virtue of a better record. But being on the road will be no worry for SMU, which clinched its division title by taking down East Carolina on the road. SMU is for real – revisit their game against TCU in September in which they held a second half lead. UCF flirted with the Top 25 in November and promptly spit the bit. SMU has the better coach, the better quarterback in Kyle Padron and the better story. Okay, the last one shouldn’t mean anything but it will inspire SMU’s players.
Oregon -17 over OREGON STATE, 3:30 p.m.
If Oregon was #3, or #4, or #5, I could see Oregon State springing the upset. But Oregon is #1 and they’re not losing this game. I wish I could envision a scenario where Oregon State wins this game but I can’t come up with one. They simply lack the playmakers on offense to match Oregon and you know this game is going to be a shootout. The last two years, Oregon State has entered this game with a chance to win the Pac-10. And each time, they were unable to counter Oregon’s offensive firepower. Here we stand with a far better Oregon team and a far worse Oregon State team – why would things be any different? Hint: they’re not.
South Carolina +6 over Auburn, 4 p.m.
I can feel it coming. It seems too easy for undefeated Oregon to play undefeated Auburn. It feels like this season has gone too well for the BCS. We need a controversy, right? And the controversy is going to be a one-loss Auburn team playing for a national title after they lose to South Carolina in the SEC title game.
Lost in the Cam Newton saga and Auburn’s run, South Carolina has quickly turned into a juggernaut. Ask Florida, Troy and Clemson, all of which were left in the Gamecocks’ wake in the past month. With Marcus Lattimore healthy again, this team looks far more like the team that drilled Alabama than the one that couldn’t compete with Arkansas. Also, let’s not forget that in their first meeting, South Carolina was the superior team that did themselves in with a ton of turnovers. They eliminate the turnovers and they will head to the Sugar Bowl.
Washington -6.5 over WASHINGTON STATE, 7 p.m.
BEST PICK OF THE WEEK! If you watched the end of Washington’s victory last week against Cal, you saw a team and a coach seizing the moment. Down three and with one play left from Cal’s one-yard line, the Huskies eschewed the field goal, went for the touchdown and won the game in regulation. It was a ballsy move to the nth degree and they now stand one victory away from its first bowl berth since 2002. I don’t care if the game’s in Pullman. I don’t care if Washington State is sort of improved. I don’t care. Washington is going to win this game and win big. I’d be shocked if it’s still close at halftime.
Virginia Tech -4 over Florida State, 8 p.m.
You got the feeling at the end of last week’s win over Florida that the game meant more to the Seminoles than winning the ACC. No disrespect to the ACC, but Florida State has always been about national championships and beating its in-state rivals. While FSU floundered under Bobby Bowden, Florida became an unstoppable monster. The roles, for at least one afternoon, were reversed last week and it clearly meant a lot to Florida State to finally beat the Gators again. Can they amp themselves up again to play a superior team in a setting that is likely to be 75% Virginia Tech fans? Florida State is good, they’re not great. It would take a great team to beat Virginia Tech Saturday night.
Oklahoma -4.5 over Nebraska, 8 p.m.
The uncertainty around Taylor Martinez obviously throws this game into chaos but, quite honestly, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Oklahoma’s offense, at some point in early November, figured everything out and has been completely and totally unstoppable. Ask Oklahoma State. Or Baylor. Or Texas Tech. Three bowl teams, three sublime offensive performances. Sure, Nebraska’s defense is better than those but they will, at best, slow Oklahoma down. Oklahoma will get its points. Will Nebraska? Add in the entire weird situation hovering over the Nebraska program and Oklahoma’s added motivation send Nebraska to the Big Ten with a loss, and I don’t think this’ll be close. I remember back in 2004 when 5-5 Syracuse gave Boston College an epic beatdown as BC was trying to win the Big East in their final year – the Orange took extra pleasure in ruining BC’s season on their way out and I believe Oklahoma will feel the same way.
UConn +1.5 over SOUTH FLORIDA, 8 p.m.
No commentary needed if you’ve read this site at all this year. UConn is my squad. They are a better team than South Florida right now. If they are not overwhelmed by the moment, they will win this game.
And if they do….we’ll be partying late into the night in the Nutmeg State.
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Last week: 12-6
Best pick: 9-3
Overall: 100-90-3
Last week’s Worst Pick: What a glorious week I had last week. It guarantees me a winning regular season as long as I don’t go 0-11 this week. And every game I lost was within a touchdown of covering. So the Worst Pick isn’t really that terrible but what I was thinking taking Texas? I think I’ve picked them incorrectly about five times this year and the one time I did pick against them, they beat Nebraska. Thank God they don’t play another game this year.
Northern Illinois -18 over Miami, Ohio, 7 p.m., FridayI don’t think there has been a hotter team in college football over the past few weeks than Northern Illinois, who stamped the end of their regular season by putting up 70 points against Eastern Michigan. They had a Tuesday MACtacular showcase in November against Toledo for the division crown and they annihilated the Rockets. Miami, Ohio is a great story as second-year coach Mike Haywood has engineered a truly remarkable turnaround from one win last year to eight wins this year. Unfortunately, Miami has not played well against good teams – getting destroyed by Missouri and Cincinnati. Yes, they did play well for a half against Florida in week one but this is different. Northern Illinois will come out focus and cement their status as the MAC’s best team in 2010.
FRESNO STATE +6 over Illinois, 10:15 p.m., Friday
What an intriguing game here. Both teams are practically locked into mid-tier bowl games – what’s the motivation? Illinois has very little. Fresno State, though, has its constant motivation of beating a team from a BCS conference. And, if you remember, Fresno State won last year’s December matchup at Illinois is ridiculous fashion, with an offensive lineman catching the winning two-point conversion play. This game means a lot for Fresno State. Even with revenge on their minds, can Illinois really get that fired up for a cross-country trip that means nothing?
Pittsburgh +2 over CINCINNATI, Noon
My oh my, have things gone south for Pitt. A month ago, they had a two-game lead in the Big East. A week ago, they controlled their own destiny. Today, they have almost no chance at the BCS and will likely be relegated to a low-end bowl like the Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl. Still, they shouldn’t be favored over a Cincinnati team that just got drilled by three touchdowns by UConn. With no bowl to play for, I don’t see Cincinnati coming out with that much fire while Pitt really needs a win to convince its fans that the team hasn’t gone complete in the tank. And Dave Wannstedt might need a win to save his job since a 6-6 season would go over like a fart in church.
WEST VIRGINIA -20.5 over Rutgers, Noon
This is one of those “they couldn’t make the line high enough” games and I’m shocked the spread is only three touchdowns. Rutgers has quit on this season. They gave up 69 points to Cincinnati. They got hammered by Louisville last week. They’re obviously not into football after the Eric LeGrand tragedy during the Army game and, honestly, I can’t blame them. But from a football standpoint, West Virginia is ranked, on a roll and getting ready to possibly play in a BCS bowl game. Rutgers just wants the season to end. Who do you think is going to win?
Smu +9 over UCF, NoonThis is actually one of the games I’m looking forward to this weekend because of the SMU story. How can you not be enthralled with them? They are an awful program for the two decades following the Death Penalty. Then June Jones shows up. Then they win their first bowl game in a quarter century. And now they can win their first conference title since 1984. How cool is that? UCF is a very strong team and they get the title game at home by virtue of a better record. But being on the road will be no worry for SMU, which clinched its division title by taking down East Carolina on the road. SMU is for real – revisit their game against TCU in September in which they held a second half lead. UCF flirted with the Top 25 in November and promptly spit the bit. SMU has the better coach, the better quarterback in Kyle Padron and the better story. Okay, the last one shouldn’t mean anything but it will inspire SMU’s players.
Oregon -17 over OREGON STATE, 3:30 p.m.
If Oregon was #3, or #4, or #5, I could see Oregon State springing the upset. But Oregon is #1 and they’re not losing this game. I wish I could envision a scenario where Oregon State wins this game but I can’t come up with one. They simply lack the playmakers on offense to match Oregon and you know this game is going to be a shootout. The last two years, Oregon State has entered this game with a chance to win the Pac-10. And each time, they were unable to counter Oregon’s offensive firepower. Here we stand with a far better Oregon team and a far worse Oregon State team – why would things be any different? Hint: they’re not.
South Carolina +6 over Auburn, 4 p.m.I can feel it coming. It seems too easy for undefeated Oregon to play undefeated Auburn. It feels like this season has gone too well for the BCS. We need a controversy, right? And the controversy is going to be a one-loss Auburn team playing for a national title after they lose to South Carolina in the SEC title game.
Lost in the Cam Newton saga and Auburn’s run, South Carolina has quickly turned into a juggernaut. Ask Florida, Troy and Clemson, all of which were left in the Gamecocks’ wake in the past month. With Marcus Lattimore healthy again, this team looks far more like the team that drilled Alabama than the one that couldn’t compete with Arkansas. Also, let’s not forget that in their first meeting, South Carolina was the superior team that did themselves in with a ton of turnovers. They eliminate the turnovers and they will head to the Sugar Bowl.
Washington -6.5 over WASHINGTON STATE, 7 p.m.
BEST PICK OF THE WEEK! If you watched the end of Washington’s victory last week against Cal, you saw a team and a coach seizing the moment. Down three and with one play left from Cal’s one-yard line, the Huskies eschewed the field goal, went for the touchdown and won the game in regulation. It was a ballsy move to the nth degree and they now stand one victory away from its first bowl berth since 2002. I don’t care if the game’s in Pullman. I don’t care if Washington State is sort of improved. I don’t care. Washington is going to win this game and win big. I’d be shocked if it’s still close at halftime.
Virginia Tech -4 over Florida State, 8 p.m.
You got the feeling at the end of last week’s win over Florida that the game meant more to the Seminoles than winning the ACC. No disrespect to the ACC, but Florida State has always been about national championships and beating its in-state rivals. While FSU floundered under Bobby Bowden, Florida became an unstoppable monster. The roles, for at least one afternoon, were reversed last week and it clearly meant a lot to Florida State to finally beat the Gators again. Can they amp themselves up again to play a superior team in a setting that is likely to be 75% Virginia Tech fans? Florida State is good, they’re not great. It would take a great team to beat Virginia Tech Saturday night.
Oklahoma -4.5 over Nebraska, 8 p.m.The uncertainty around Taylor Martinez obviously throws this game into chaos but, quite honestly, I don’t think it’s going to matter. Oklahoma’s offense, at some point in early November, figured everything out and has been completely and totally unstoppable. Ask Oklahoma State. Or Baylor. Or Texas Tech. Three bowl teams, three sublime offensive performances. Sure, Nebraska’s defense is better than those but they will, at best, slow Oklahoma down. Oklahoma will get its points. Will Nebraska? Add in the entire weird situation hovering over the Nebraska program and Oklahoma’s added motivation send Nebraska to the Big Ten with a loss, and I don’t think this’ll be close. I remember back in 2004 when 5-5 Syracuse gave Boston College an epic beatdown as BC was trying to win the Big East in their final year – the Orange took extra pleasure in ruining BC’s season on their way out and I believe Oklahoma will feel the same way.
UConn +1.5 over SOUTH FLORIDA, 8 p.m.
No commentary needed if you’ve read this site at all this year. UConn is my squad. They are a better team than South Florida right now. If they are not overwhelmed by the moment, they will win this game.
And if they do….we’ll be partying late into the night in the Nutmeg State.
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