Bowl Picks Part III: New Year's Bowls
Last week: 7-4
Best pick: 10-3
Final Regular Season Record: 107-94-3
Last week’s Worst Pick: Picking South Carolina to cover against Auburn and then proclaiming they would win the game outright was not one of my finer moments during the season. But thanks to a wonderful final two weeks, I was able to shoot past .500 and end up with a pretty respectable record against the spread for how many games I pick.
And now it’s time for the most wonderful time of year – bowl season! I know a lot of people mock the bowls but there are still millions who watch and some, like myself, who just can’t get enough. Starting Saturday, there will be an NFL or college football game on every night until Jan. 10, save for one rogue Wednesday (Damn you, January 5th!).
I will be heading out on a family vacation over the holidays, so I’m going to get these picks out a little early to make sure I can be held accountable. We’ll divide the bowls into three groups – the undercard, Bowl Week, and the New Year’s bowls. The BCS title game will get special treatment the day of.
And before I get started, I would like to point out the stupidity of ESPN claiming Dec. 18th to Jan. 1st as the official Bowl Week. Don’t besmirch the good name of Bowl Week. Games before Christmas are not part of Bowl Week. You know that ESPN. C’mon man.
BYU -11.5 over UTEP
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 2 p.m., ESPN
The bowl season kicks off in the most mediocre way possible – two 6-6 teams playing a game in New Mexico. Does it get much better than this? Oh yeah, it gets a lot better than this. Whatever, I’ll be watching because I like watching football when it’s too cold to go outside. UTEP is definitely far more excited to be here but that doesn’t mean BYU isn’t going to show up. Remember, BYU started this season off atrociously and just making a bowl is a pretty remarkable accomplishment. The Cougars are also off to independent status next year and I’m thinking they use this as a springboard. Also, UTEP is terrible.
Fresno State +1 over Northern Illinois
Humanitarian Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
If you watched MAC title game, you obviously had a pretty low key Friday night like I did that night. But if you watched it, you saw a superior Northern Illinois team completely give away the conference championship to Miami, Ohio on a final drive that was out of a movie, that’s how ridiculous it was. Then, the Huskies lose their coach to Minnesota. And on top of all that, they fall out of the Top 25 and end up in Boise. To make matters worse, Fresno State is a far superior team athletically. Most people only remember Fresno’s 51-0 destruction at the hands of Boise State. This is also a team that manhandled Cincinnati and beat Illinois. They may not be thrilled to be heading back to Boise but Pat Hill has a history of getting his teams to play hard in bowl games. That’s all they’ll need to win.
Troy -2 over Ohio
New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18, 8 p.m., ESPN
Last impressions mean a lot to me. On the Friday after Thanksgiving, Ohio just had to beat woeful Kent State to win their MAC division. They lost in pathetic fashion, barely putting up a fight against a team that was so poor, its coach had already been fired. Troy had its typical season – getting annihilated by Top 25 programs for paychecks in the nonconference and winning the Sun Belt conference. Yes, they shared it this year but again, they remain the best Sun Belt program. They have also been very successful in bowls and, for a Sun Belt team, their fans travel well. I don’t think Ohio has enough offense to keep pace.
Louisville -3 over Southern MissBeef O’Brady’s Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
The first two years of this bowl game have been the same – Big East team comes out unmotivated and waxes an inferior Conference USA team. Here, the script is flipped. Louisville is seriously motivated because it’s playing in its first bowl since the 2007 Orange Bowl. Even better, the school actually lobbied for this game because it recruits Florida heavily and the other possible Big East bowl games conflicted with the Louisville/Kentucky basketball game on New Year’s Eve. Southern Miss is motivated to beat a BCS conference team and they had a good season, going 8-4. Louisville, though, is the better team despite the poorer record. I have my eye on this as my BEST PICK of the bowl undercard, as I believe Louisville is a program on the rise. And programs on the rise win bowl games like this.
Boise State -17 over Utah
Las Vegas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22, 8 p.m., ESPN
Utah doesn’t have its starting quarterback. Utah is already dreaming about the Pac-12. Boise State is ticked off. Boise State thinks it got a raw deal by playing yet another non-BCS team in a bowl game. Boise State is thinking the same thing it was at last year’s Fiesta Bowl – this is the first game of next season’s title run. Boise State is going to make a statement, in a big way, and get the hype going for next year’s opener against Georgia in the Georgia Dome. Boise also has a number of seniors who have taken the program from nationally respected to national title contenders – they will want to send them out in grand style.
Navy +5 over San Diego State
Poinsettia Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23, 8 p.m., ESPN
This was one of the picks that I went back and forth on the most because I can’t get a feel for how the game is going play out. Both teams are very good with the ability to play great. Both teams are excited to be here. Both teams are highly motivated to win. The game will likely set an attendance record for the bowl, so it should be a charged atmosphere. In the end, I wussed out with my pick. Why? Because I don’t know who is going to win, I just know that it’s going to be close. So when it doubt, take the points and hope it’s decided by a field. It just feels like a 35-31 or 31-28 game one way or the other. Navy is the more experience bowl team with a legend at QB in Ricky Dobbs playing his final game. I believe that pushes Navy over the top late.
Tulsa +10.5 over Hawaii
Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24, 8 p.m., ESPN
One of the most anticipated bowls, for me, of the entire 35-game slate. The Hawaii Bowl has provided some of the most entertaining games in recent memory, including Chris Johnson’s coming out party against Boise State in 2007 and the triple overtime, fight-marred game between Houston and Hawaii in 2003. I’m thinking we see another crazy shootout that doesn’t end until about the time Santa is descending down your chimney. I know Hawaii is much better at home but that success has not always translated into the Hawaii Bowl. Tulsa has just as many weapons as Hawaii and I would like them outright. As is, getting 10.5 points feels like stealing and I’ll take Tulsa and run.
Toledo -1.5 over Florida International
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Sunday, Dec. 26, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
If any team got a raw deal in this year’s bowl season, it’s Florida International. They played a murderous nonconference slate, including tough losses to Rutgers (who they outplayed) and Texas A&M (who they should’ve beat). But since they lost those games, the 6-6 record impresses nobody, so they get shuffled off to Detroit for the program’s first ever bowl, as opposed to closer locales in New Orleans and Mobile, Ala. I have a bad feeling FIU comes out flat while Toledo, frankly, is thrilled to be in any bowl since the only two bowl-eligible teams that aren’t bowling came from the MAC. Toledo uses the good fortune as motivation and, spurred on by a home field advantage, take care of FIU.
Air Force -3 over Georgia TechIndependence Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN2
What’s the over/under on the time of game? 2:30? 2:15? 2 hours flat? There won’t be a lot of passing as both teams run the old-school triple option. The huge difference here is that Air Force has its starting QB and Joshua Nesbitt is highly unlikely for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were one of the season’s biggest disappointments and their one huge advantage – the novelty of the option – is rendered useless against Air Force. The Falcons were ranked early in the season, played Oklahoma very tough in Norman and, frankly, are just a better team. If the better team is motivated in a bowl game, they usually win. That’s what you’ll see here.
More picks to come...
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